Quote:
Originally Posted by Fictive  I never fold aces preflop against only one player. That would be insane. Worst case scenario, you are 81% favorite to win. I like those odds. I realize how a fold could be one choice given that someone is going to get busted in a minute or two, but still... never ever ever fold pocket rockets. That's my game theory, and it has worked quite well.  |
While an interesting theory... it fails at this one point. With perfectly flat payouts (as in the case with the tickets), you have to fold A-A here even if your opponent turns over and shows you his 2-3 offsuit. I am going to shamelessly copy the method Harrington uses in his
Volume II: The End Game in an attempt to explain why this is so.
At this point, 4 people get a token so the final percentages have to add up to 400%.
There are 27,000 chips in play this means each chip is worth roughly a 1.48% chance to get a ticket. At the start of the hand, the players have the following odds of getting a ticket.
BTN: 239%
SB: 79%
Hero (BB): 37%
UTG: 9%
CO: 36%
Now, if you call and lose you're a 0% chance to win. And you'll lose about 20% of the time by your own estimates. You'll have a 28% chance of getting a ticket if you fold. But if UTG loses the next hand or folds his BB, and you fold your SB, he will be about a 2% chance to win (from his SB where he is forced to play) and you'll still be a 24% favorite to get a ticket.
Now, what if you won with your AA? You'd increase to a 74% favorite to win a ticket. Certainly not a strong enough favorite to make this move. If it's failing 20% of the time. You're really only increasing your equity (after weighting the times you lose) by 22%. With a player that short... 9%,... to be 2% on the next hand... you're forced to fold here.
Harrington does a much better job of explaining this in detail. It's pages 421-426 and I highly recommend checking it out.