The information I have on the player is nearly as much as you have. This is maybe 20-30 hands into a tournament and this is his first time at the game. He's not a regular player there.
He shoved a flush holding J-3 of clubs at one point and he's shown, if anything, a habit of playing any two cards. Although I suspect he could have A-J here, his history doesn't make that a certainty. He's gotten as many chips as he did because of that J-3c hand, when he was called by a player with a smaller flush. Of the 20-30 hands we've played, he has been involved in about 80% of them.
As for the call, I think it's automatic just from the pot odds and not just because we've made it to the river. I have no problem folding, even if a call would leave me with plenty of chips, if the pot's not large enough to make it worth it. I'm being offered 7.2-1 on the call here and the problem is a proper range. If his range is large enough that calling with those odds makes sense, then it's a good call regardless of outcome. If his range is too small for even those odds to make sense then I need to fold.
As loose as he is, what range could he have here? It's much smaller than any two cards, since the call pre-flop and the call on the flop suggests he has something. And, although a slow-play is possible, I consider it unlikely because of the way he's played previous 'made' hands. He has no problem betting when he thinks he has the best hand. It's just what is his definition of "best hand" in this case?
The check on the end did show weakness and could have inspired a desperation bluff from a hand that missed completely. I understood that as a possibility when I checked. But look at my bet sizes throughout the hand. I haven't shown real strength once. My flop bet was insanely weak and poorly sized and the turn bet was also far too small. I've shown aggression but I've never shown strength and I've been offering him plenty of pot odds to hang around with some marginal hands. I was trying to avoid getting tied to this pot for most of my stack but managed to end up that way anyway.
Also: I know what decision I made. This is a question more about range of hands than anything else. I was completely unable to put him on any solid range of hands as this played out. As for information, this player was turning over just about any hand he had when someone asked, "Did you have such-and-such?" So it was possible I could get the information just by asking if he had the 9 regardless of whether I called or not. The player did not have an understanding of the value of information. This is how I had seen most of the cards he had played and most were marginal, as would be expected of someone playing 80% of their hands.  |