[Fictive]

Originally Posted by frob23 While an interesting theory... it fails at this one point. With perfectly flat payouts (as in the case with the tickets), you have to fold A-A here even if your opponent turns over and shows you his 2-3 offsuit. I am going to shamelessly copy the method Harrington uses in his Volume II: The End Game in an attempt to explain why this is so. At this point, 4 people get a token so the final percentages have to add up to 400%. There are 27,000 chips in play this means each chip is worth roughly a 1.48% chance to get a ticket. At the start of the hand, the players have the following odds of getting a ticket. BTN: 239% SB: 79% Hero (BB): 37% UTG: 9% CO: 36% Now, if you call and lose you're a 0% chance to win. And you'll lose about 20% of the time by your own estimates. You'll have a 28% chance of getting a ticket if you fold. But if UTG loses the next hand or folds his BB, and you fold your SB, he will be about a 2% chance to win (from his SB where he is forced to play) and you'll still be a 24% favorite to get a ticket. Now, what if you won with your AA? You'd increase to a 74% favorite to win a ticket. Certainly not a strong enough favorite to make this move. If it's failing 20% of the time. You're really only increasing your equity (after weighting the times you lose) by 22%. With a player that short... 9%,... to be 2% on the next hand... you're forced to fold here. Harrington does a much better job of explaining this in detail. It's pages 421-426 and I highly recommend checking it out.

That is a very valid point. One that I definetely hadn't even thought about. Ah, possibly just one more reason why I do pretty good in cash games but suck at tournaments.