 Superstitions
Although it is good to be wary of scams and such, this whole debate is about superstition. Fulltilt ( or any other reputable, profitable site) has absolutely nothing to gain and everything to lose by predetermining outcomes such as suggested.
I withdraw bi-weekly for the same amount every time. After my first withdrawal, i had the worst downswing of my poker career (18 max buy ins). If I werent a firm believer in logic, and mathematical outcomes, I could have concluded that there might be something to this. Guess what, even if played at a high level, of a course of 100,000 hands, you are more than likely to have a 15 buyin downswing. Such is poker, the game is quite brutal. This is where bankroll management comes in, among other self-control methods.
Catch16 makes a good point about the withdrawals, happening at the top of one of your variance waves.
Twice in a span of two days immediately after my first withdrawal, I caught the worst possible beats in holdem after the flop. (Yes, a 1 outer happens quite a bit, there are only 52 cards in the deck). The longest odds being 999 to 1, your opponent needing both of two cards remaining.
First of the two, i was holding aa, pretty nice flop of akk against a maniac who who was probably holding an underpair( called my reraise preflop) he actually pushes on the flop all in to my delight, and shows 88. Yup. lost that one.
The second was even sicker because we were superdeep stacked. My opponent was a very TAG player, and i never give him action without a monster flop for two reasons in this situation, 1 being I never seen him bluff , 2 we both had over 600 in play (at 1/2 NL). I made my usual value raise early position with 66, and was reraised bby this player... I've never seen him do this as a steal or even with AK, he always jsut calls in that spot. Being deep stacked, I'm set mining of course.... flop came 662.. Quads yippee, I actually lead out representing a midpair in the range of 33-jj, knowing he has qq or better and will raise every single time. Sure enough he 4bets me, i go into the tank and call.. K on the turn, i check (praying he has aa or kk rather than qq, the latter he would not give me much more action.) he pushes all in and shows kk, you know the rest...
My point, I'm still not superstitous... ( I did log off quite abruptly soon after that hand, lol, I dont know anyone that could play well at their relative stake after those two days.)  |