Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonathank  call. easy call. nothing to think about. |
I do not think you can ever justify a call here. If you are going to play this hand, you're playing for his whole stack. If you play, you need to shove. There is no way that you can call on the flop and not call his shove on the turn... so you have more equity by shoving here and getting him to lay down unpaired bluffs. I do not think this is likely to be a bluff.
I would bet that most of the time we're looking at 6-6. 7-7, 8-8, or 9-9 here. Without running the numbers I know we're about a 3-1 dog against those hands with two cards to come. Since we're likely to be getting all the chips in on the turn, regardless of the card... we're being offered about $16.60-$11.00 to play this hand... 1.5-1 is not good enough if we think he has a pair. It's a little better if we think he might do this with some crazy unpaired hand (although I discount that much of the time) and we can get a fold by shoving.
Personally, I am folding most of the time here for this size bet with the stack and pot sizes we know. With a better read on the villain, I might be shoving. I am never calling. If he is making this bet with something like Q-J suited... I am not going to give him a free shot at hitting the Q or the J and putting me far behind when I can't possibly fold.
Edit: Of course, there are more than just those 4 pocket pairs... but that would be my guess most of the time with how they have been played.