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Old 13th June 2008, 09:54 PM
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frob23 frob23 is offline
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Against a completely random hand, JJ loses 22.5% of the time. Over 1/5th of the time he makes this call, he goes home with nothing. If he was really short-stacked, then maybe this was a spot for him to make this move.

But as stated, he and the other guy had about 80% of the chips in play and the other two short stacks were going to be going out very soon. I grant that there's barely enough information here but there's enough to be fairly sure waiting isn't horrible.

Note: If his opponent pushes with something more reasonable than a random hand it gets worse for him. He loses over 30% of the time when his opponent will push with any pair and 1 overcard even if the kicker is a deuce. When I put in some very loose but also very likely numbers (as few people would shove Q2o)... I find him losing as often as 1/3rd of the time. He is basically assured a spot into the money at this point if he doesn't give away his chips. This is not a spot I would be folding KK or AA but JJ is just too weak for me to call off my tournament life when two people are on life support and I am sitting with a fairly healthy stack. [I would raise and shove with this hand but not call.]
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