[frob23]

I have seen people ask before if they could fold KK pre-flop if they were certain another player had AA. This was about as close as I had ever come to being nearly certain I was against AA (I was actually) and I still couldn't do it. I console myself by saying it's because of the side pot that I was able to build with a deeper stack but I am not fooling anyone. I couldn't have laid this down.

I was playing a live private tournament last night. The button in the following hand is a strong, solid player and has just been very unfortunate to run a flopped set into a rivered flush. He lost slightly over half of his stack in that confrontation.

Important stacks:
UTG: 3000
Hero: 2925
Button: 1250

I am in mid-position. The blinds are 25/50.

UTG minraises to 100. It folds to me, and I look down at K-K. I do not want people coming in behind me and I pop it up to 300.

It folds to the button who moves all-in. I know this player and I know he's not doing this light. I figure I'm looking at QQ-AA. And KK is extremely unlikely (as I hold the other two) and QQ is fairly weak for him to shove over my reraise -- as he generally respects my raises. I figure there is a real good chance I am running my Kings into Aces here. In fact, as I know this player is solid and observant and knows that my reraising range pre-flop is very tight (my opening raising range is wider but not reraising) I am sure that he puts me on a big pair here. I know he's putting me on something like JJ+ at least... so that makes the QQ hand even less likely.

The blinds fold and the UTG player calls. While she took the time to make the call, I kept thinking about the situation and became more and more convinced that the Button had to have AA. It was the only hand that he could be 3-bet shoving in that spot when I was the person to put in the second bet. I know it sounds like I have given him too much credit for the range he puts me on but this player has open-folded 10-10, J-J, and AKs to my pre-flop reraises. If anything, he is too tight against my pre-flop aggression (and I do use that to my advantage later in the tournaments).

I am confident that I am ahead of the UTG player, if not the Button, and move all-in. She calls.

Main pot: 3,825
Side pot: 3,350

UTG: AQd
Hero: KK
Button: AA

Sure enough, I am in real bad shape against the button. But I am in excellent shape for the side pot. So I do stand to make a profit from this hand. Not much of a profit but better than losing everything. I was also pleased with my read on the Button... even though I wasn't good enough to go with it.

Flop: [5-8-7] rainbow

This helps none of us. I am still a favorite for the side pot and the Button is still a favorite for the main pot.

Turn: [5-8-7]-[10]

Nothing new. At this point the Button says, "Please no King this time... just one more card without a King."

River: [5-8-7-10]-[K]

MONSTROUS SUCK-OUT!!! [The crowd goes wild.]

I hit my two outer to take down 7175 in chips and put myself solidly in the lead. The Button takes it in stride, admitting that he wouldn't be able to lay down Kings there either. In almost all the time I have played, I've never been that sure I was against AA. It was the end result of hundreds of hours of playing him and history as well as the situation. But, even with all that, I wasn't strong enough to lay down the Ks like I should have been able to. Against other players, in less certain situations, I wouldn't stand a chance to lay them down.