i'm not exactly sure on the math... but i'm pretty sure it's actually statistically correct for you to go with it here. when UTG has already called the all in, now you reraise and she's calling every time. (or should be, if she calls the first all in, so lets assume for simplicity.) with her range, you're winning the side pot 80-90 percent of the time. and that's all you need to win to actually make a profit here. plus, a little under 20% of the time you'll scoop the whole thing. sooo... nh. would have been a horrible fold, i think.
now, had she mucked to his all in, then it's still a tough laydown. as it's only 900 more to win 1600-1700. but you can still do it profitably.
(assuming all my math is right)
NJM |