It's definitely these types of hands that make poker interesting. I will let you know that I ultimately made the mathematically wrong decision, but it was the right game decision.
All of what you guys have said has some pretty good logic to it. And most of it when through my head in my five minutes of thought. Here's how my thought process finally broke down:
I play with this semi-regularly, and I know what he's capable of. And today, he was playing really well. He wasn't letting chips go lightly. So, I was pretty sure there was no way he was bluffing on the river.
This also meant that it was extremely likely that he made a hand on the river or he wouldn't push like that. And remember, I'm pretty sure at this point that he pretty sure I have a ten as well.
The river card doesn't make a flush or a straight possible, so that also takes away any type of situation that looks good for a bluff.
And that's where I went into the tank for a long time.
I'd convinced myself that he had AT LEAST three tens. I just had to figure out if it were stronger than that. Then there was always the chance that I misread his body language and statement on the turn. Maybe he had QQ and felt bad because his queens had gotten run down and then filled on the river. If so, I couldn't beat that.
Then of course, there was always the possibility that he thought I was bluffing or that I had a weaker ten than he had and he was willing to make a stand.
But ultimately, I was holding the 6th best hand in an 8-handed game. But, once this thought came up, I figured he could only have played three hands to a preflop raise that potentially beat me here (QTs,QQ,TT).
The other reality is that with any hand that's not the 1st or 2nd nuts in his position, check, call or fold are all much better options than raising. Consider the image that I built up plus the fact that I bet at every chance.
But, as gamer4life27 pointed out, there are way more hands that I beat, than hands I lose to. So, that make it hard to fold.
My hand also improved from a pair, to a set, and a boat and I laid a bet at every street. I'd commited a lotta chips to the pot at this point. There wasn't a lot of equity in folding here. A call only has to be correct a very small percentage of the time here to be correct.
So, ultimately, what the discussion comes down to is do you trust your reads/instinct or do you simply make the systematically "correct" call?
I think on the turn, my instinct took over as I'd pretty much told myself that if any card that's not a J or Q comes on the river, I'm making a big bet. If a J or Q shows up, I'm making a small value/feeler bet.
So, sadly after five minutes of deliberation, I folded. I later admited to one of buddies that I'm likely making that same laydown if he makes a similar play with a J on the river.
And as it turns out, he showed a QsTs.
I generally try not to be too results oriented. But, it was the first time that I was stuck in a situation where my instincts were pushing me in a position completely contradictory to the proper odds/math. And like I said, I'd have made a similar laydown if a J comes on the river.
I don't think that my play was correct or even optimal on a street by street basis. I think it was far from terrible, but it probably could have been better.
It's a strange feeling to lay down a huge hand like that, save a lot of money, but still not feel right about it in the end.  |