well you need to look at the odds and the likelihoods. let's assume he had the flush (even though he said he didn't, he almost 100 percent did anyway). after his bet, there was 4250 in the pot, costing you 2000 to call. so you were getting slightly better than 2 to 1 on the call, raising in unecessary because he has to call his last 1000 into a 9000+ pot. so having a set, the river gives you 9 chances to be better than a flush. you're about 25% to improve on the river. i would say that the chances of him not having the flush are equal to the chances of him having a higher set, so the all in all you have 9 outs to win the hand. being the chip leader it is a thing that you could attempt to bust him, but 75% of the time you're losing another 3k in chips. i think it's a good fold in this situation, but a bad show, showing your hands is almost never a good thing to do. |