In Hold'em, you always need to think about the next street.
For example, in the BB you're dealt A
-6
3 people limp and the SB completes... you check.
The flop comes 6
-A
-5
Which is basically gin for your hand. You have top two pair and it's likely it's the best hand (although you might have some concern about 5-5 if you get serious action).
A big mistake new players make, when flopping a fairly strong hand like this, is to slow-play. This hand is
not even close to being strong enough to slow-play. Besides, there are other slow-play qualities that this board lacks... that's another lesson. You need to bet this board and the amount you bet should be based on your thoughts about the next street.
First, what cards do we not want to see? Well, for sure we don't want to see any
. That would be the scariest card. I am not too worried about a K or a Q, because AK and AQ usually raise pre-flop. I really don't like a J or 10... because people do like to limp with AJ and A-10 but they're not completely threatening. We have to cross that bridge when we get to it. Now... if someone limped with 7-8, we so not want them hanging around and hitting a 4 or a 9. If we bet enough, we'll get rid of most of these hands with the possible exception of (7
-8
and A
-x
).
So... we want to make a big bet. Let's say, instead of making a big bet (80-120% of the pot) you bet 20%. Basically, you min-bet (or worse check). And everyone comes along to the next street.
Now the turn: 6
-A
-5
-J
This card probably didn't hurt us too badly. It is a little worrisome because A-J could be out there. Action is on you. At this point you have no reason to believe your hand is beat. But you
must make a large bet. Not because of this street... but because of the river.
Think about how many cards could ruin your hand on the river. You have no idea what the other 4 players are sticking around with because you've never shown any strength.
You really don't want to see any
or any
(someone might have been in with a pair and backed into the club draw -- which happens in a lot of weak games). You don't want any broadway cards... because they could make a better Aces up or put a weird straight up there -- it's odd but certainly possible in these games. A 4 and a 9 could complete an open-ended straight for 7-8. I am not so worried about 2s or 3s. Same with 7s and 8s. So let's see... there are 46 unknown cards... 21 suited cards (we hold one
so there's only 10 unseen from that suit)... and 12 cards that are broadway or straightening cards... basically... 33 cards we don't want to see. That's 33-13 or about 75% of the time the river is going to shut-down our betting and might cause is to lay down the best hand.
So yeah, on the turn, we're likely still good. But about 75% of the cards in the deck are unpleasant. You can't always worry about monsters under the bed but by thinking ahead, we can avoid hard decisions. So make a strong bet here of about the pot and just pick it up. And you also need to think about what your opponents might do on the next street. If you make a big bet and get called here... you're probably going to have to pay off a K,Q, or T. And you probably will need to pay off a club too.
Making a pot sized bet will usually take this down right here. Unless someone has A-J or a set... they don't really have the equity to call for the draws.
Of course, making a bet on the flop would be better (for a lot of reasons) because many cards on the turn aren't pleasant. Do
not make an undersized bet, or check, because you are worried about the next card making someone's hand. You need to charge them to hit their hand. It's more profitable to bet and have them pay the wrong price to hit than it is to check and let them hit for free.
Uhm... rambling. Anyway, think of the next street. This goes for a lot of things, including bluffs. Against 1-2 people, if I called from outside the blinds, I almost always plan on betting an Ace on the turn if no one bet the flop (even without one in my hand) because I "should" have an Ace... I played outside the blinds.
As always, everyone else should feel free to fill in the many gaps I left. And elaborate on this subject as they desire.