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Old 25th August 2008, 08:27 AM
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Default Error in Sklansky book?

Book: "No Limit Hold 'em - theory and practice" written by David Sklansky and Ed Miller.
Part One - Fundamentals, chapter: Bet Sizing

In paragraph "Expectation and Multiple Possible Hands" starting on page 51 (at least in my version of the book) the book talks about how to size your bet if there's multiple hands you can put your opponent on. Situation one gives him a 25% chance of drawing to a win, situation 2 gives him 50%. Situation 1 will occur 75% of the time, situation 2 will occur 25% of the time.

The book states that on a pot of 1000+500(your bet), your opponent loses 100 a hand if he calls a bet of 500 (making the pot 2000) if he's on 25% to win using the following calculation:
-$100 = (0.20)($1500) + (0.80)(-500)

And wins 167 a hand with 50% to win using:
$167 =(1/3)($1500) + (2/3)(-$500)

Making the overall profit of betting 500 here for you:
$33.33 = (0.75)($100) + (0.25)(-$167)


Could someone verify that the first 2 calculations are wrong and should really be:
$0 = (0.25)($1500) + (0.75)(-500)
and:
$500 = (0.50)($1500) + (0.50)(-$500)

Making the last one:
-$125 = (0.75)($0) + (0.25)(-$500)

Or am I missing something?

Edit:
Of course, this disregards any implied odds, it's assumed there will be no more bets.
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Old 26th August 2008, 09:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kiros37100 View Post
Book: "No Limit Hold 'em - theory and practice" written by David Sklansky and Ed Miller.
Part One - Fundamentals, chapter: Bet Sizing
Without the book in front of me... I can't be sure if this is a mistake or not. I have seen a mathematical error in a Sklansky before but not one which changed the overall meaning of the passage. So a mathematical mistake is certainly possible.

Still without the page... and time to fully grok it... I can't be certain here. This seems like a fairly large error if it is one.

By pure logic, I know he is a 3-1 dog (when he has 25% chance to win) and therefore is break even when being offered 1500-500... so 75% of the time... we both have an equity of $0 on the bet. So I agree with you there. The other time the pot is offering 3-1 on 1-1 proposition... And he should be showing a profit of $1000 over two hands... or basically he has an equity of $500. Since that happens 25% of the time... it does appear that your opponent has a positive equity of $125 when he calls this bet but I am probably way off here and not thinking right about this. I don't know and that's armchair logic and I didn't even use a calculator... since I didn't use a calculator, I am almost certain I'm wrong because these types of problems are usually deceptive in their true answer.
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Old 26th August 2008, 09:41 PM
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Is this the first edition of the book?

The 2+2 Forum Archives: No Limit Hold 'em: Theory and Practice - Errata List

This is the errata page for it and it doesn't list a problem from page 51.
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