A quick lesson about bubble spots in SnGs and MTTs

[Wyte22]

I've seen this happen one to many times. Your playing 9-max SnG, 4 players left. One is a really large stack, 2 med stacks (we'll assume you are here) and 1 stack on death watch (less than M=2 [Example: he has 300 chips when blinds are 50/100 and yes this area qualifies for effective M but we will use simple M just to keep it simple for the beginner section]).

The big stack bets out, you call, the other med stack folds and the small stack moves all in and the big stack calls. This is a spot where I've seen entirely too many players bust out. Unless you seriously have a monster, don't call any bets from the big stack, just check the hand down (if you do call the allin with the chip ldr, which is a chance for you to go broke to, even before the death watch stack!). Too many times, the med stacks get sucked into the pot with all their chips because they think "OK I got top pair and I can get all these chips and become the new chip ldr going into the money and easily get 1st!!". But they fail to see this or that which can cost them a cash and become the bubble boy/girl. If you do not have a MONSTER hand PF when the big stack calls the allin from the short stack, DO NOT CALL. Just fold and let them have at it. Ya you might have lost a few chips but that is better than potentially losing your entire stack when you are going to cash at least 3rd!!

Not gonna get into all the boring +EV about cashes and how the modern touranment prize structure, blah blah.

The point I am trying to get across is, if the big stack is involved in the hand, unless you got some monsters in your closet, STAY OUT OF THE HAND. Espically if you have a stack on death watch!!

Once you are ITM, loosen back up a good bit!

[Vito_Nuccio]

I agree and disagree.

You definitely need to watch the big stack when bubble time is near, they can bust you. In fact, you should be aware of chip strength for everyone at all times. But in this example if I have a decent hand with 2100 left, I may call the 300 all-in to get two hands up against one. The chip leader can still push me around after the flop, but by calling, I am telling him/her, lets get bubble player out of here, then we can play for the cash. If the big stack reraises the all-in bet, well then I am bowing out unless holding a top tier hand. But if you find a player looking at the big picture, then you can exploit the small stack by making them play for their life against two hands, a more difficult prospect.

Thanks Wyte....Later,

[Wyte22]

Originally Posted by Vito_Nuccio I agree and disagree. You definitely need to watch the big stack when bubble time is near, they can bust you. In fact, you should be aware of chip strength for everyone at all times. But in this example if I have a decent hand with 2100 left, I may call the 300 all-in to get two hands up against one. The chip leader can still push me around after the flop, but by calling, I am telling him/her, lets get bubble player out of here, then we can play for the cash. If the big stack reraises the all-in bet, well then I am bowing out unless holding a top tier hand. But if you find a player looking at the big picture, then you can exploit the small stack by making them play for their life against two hands, a more difficult prospect. Thanks Wyte....Later,

And I agree but I do want to point out, for me, you and other experienced players on the forum, this could be an easy fold. If the board is A K 5 and the beginner is sitting there with A5 and he is facing an all in bet, how hard is it to get out of that situation as a beginner? Most likely the beginner is gonna call the all in, see villian holding AK, the short stack survives and bam you become the bubble boy/girl. That's why I advocate, unless you got a group 1 hand, STAY OUT OF THE HAND It makes hard decisions non-existence post flop if you have a mediocure hand.

But yes vito is exactly right, two players heading into a showdown against the death watch stack is alot better than 1 player (better chance of knocking out unless death watch stack flops monsters under the bed). If you do decide to pursue a hand other than a group 1 hand against the big stack when calling down the death watch stack, use extreme caution!

[lockwoodlad]

Everyone should simply look up ICM , Bubble play in STG is entirely different to tournaments.
e.g If you are in 2nd place in a stg with 2500 chips, 1st has 8500 3rd has 2000 4th has 500. blinds are 100/200. Say you are in BB small stack is sb. Big stack shoves. 3rd folds, sb folds leaving 400 chips your in bb with KK. what do you do? The answer is fold. it is even debaable if you should call with AA here. If you can't see why you need to learn more.

Another point is that anyone I know would take a 20%roi in stg. In most stg's by folding here and having a 90% chance of atleast 3rd you are gettin atleast a 81% return on your buyin. If you call and lose you get 0. Tourney's are different because your aim should not be to simply cash. Your aim should be to go deep and FT. Most tourneys pay out at least 40% of the total prizepool in the top 3 spots and most good MTT players will cash 15-18% of tourneys. A lot of players can cash over this rate (and if you nit it up you definetly will) but the idea is to accumulate enough chips to survive the inevital bad beat that will happen at some stage during a 5+hour tourney. If you are playing too tight just to cash it will reduce your chances of going deep to where the real money is.

[liladypokerpro]

Originally Posted by lockwoodlad Everyone should simply look up ICM , Bubble play in STG is entirely different to tournaments. e.g If you are in 2nd place in a stg with 2500 chips, 1st has 8500 3rd has 2000 4th has 500. blinds are 100/200. Say you are in BB small stack is sb. Big stack shoves. 3rd folds, sb folds leaving 400 chips your in bb with KK. what do you do? The answer is fold. it is even debatable if you should call with AA here. If you can't see why you need to learn more.

There was a thread a long time ago that started some controversy and really got me bashed because of this very thing.....because I said I could and would easily lay down AA (or any hand) in the above position, because I saw no reason (when the bubble was likely to either get blinded out or lose a hand and go out) to risk my tournament life and end up going out before him.

My thinking is, when the bubble is so low, everyone wants to take him out, and/or he himself will likely go all in with any two cards.....and we all know that AA is a great monster hole pair, but any other two cards can easily either two-pair up, straight up or flush up...and how many outs are we left with holding AA? I can't tell you how many times I've seen the imminent demise of the bubble person turn around because they end up cracking a big hand, and/or someone else ends up going out in their place.

Anyway, I'm just glad to see that it is written somewhere that I'm not completely off my rocker...

[phosphorescence]

never, ever, ever folding KK or AA there.

the person after the bubble gets a piddly amount back, usually less than 2xbuy in, and you're in a prime position to double up and have a crack at first place (which obviously has a FAR greater percentage of the prize pool).

i think too much emphasis is placed on just getting into the money even if it leaves you crippled (though obv. you aren't crippled in this example). i will always take chances to try to give myself a shot at the top few places, even if it means going out on the bubble.

'if you can't see why you need to learn more' - patronising much? what makes you believe your opinion is correct?

[Wyte22]

Plz no attacking other members in this thread, this is for beginners not for each other to attack each other, if you must do that, take it to the PMs please. Thanks.



On the topic of KK .v. AA. I am afraid that I am folding KK in certain situations. Given the big stack being a solid player, or one where I know the short stack will be going out but I don't want to put my chips in jepodary if the big stack is playing A-x. I only see me folding AA if it is a Sat. Event and I am 80% or better to win my seat into the event and I am being moved all in by a stack equal (or close to 95% of my size) with a few callers (from equal stacks and smaller stacks at the table). This is because, as you increase the number of callers into your AA, the value of the AA goes down DRAMATICALLY! Normally, I'll lay down the AA and let the rest of them duke it out and get my seat rather than risk being bubbled or eliminated out of the sat. tourney earlier than making the prize. a hand that is at best 91% to win (that's AA .v. AK), doesn't hold enough value when you are playing for 100% of your chips and there is no escalating prize (there is only X number of seats, but no money involved). If it was a SnG and if you went out, you'd cash third, I could see that, but if it determines whether or not you will cash, do you really wanna waste all that time and effort getting that far and having your aces cracked when your 80% or better to move onto a prize seat if you just fold the AA?

[phosphorescence]

Originally Posted by Wyte22 Plz no attacking other members in this thread, this is for beginners not for each other to attack each other, if you must do that, take it to the PMs please. Thanks. On the topic of KK .v. AA. I am afraid that I am folding KK in certain situations. Given the big stack being a solid player, or one where I know the short stack will be going out but I don't want to put my chips in jepodary if the big stack is playing A-x. I only see me folding AA if it is a Sat. Event and I am 80% or better to win my seat into the event and I am being moved all in by a stack equal (or close to 95% of my size) with a few callers (from equal stacks and smaller stacks at the table). This is because, as you increase the number of callers into your AA, the value of the AA goes down DRAMATICALLY! Normally, I'll lay down the AA and let the rest of them duke it out and get my seat rather than risk being bubbled or eliminated out of the sat. tourney earlier than making the prize. a hand that is at best 91% to win (that's AA .v. AK), doesn't hold enough value when you are playing for 100% of your chips and there is no escalating prize (there is only X number of seats, but no money involved). If it was a SnG and if you went out, you'd cash third, I could see that, but if it determines whether or not you will cash, do you really wanna waste all that time and effort getting that far and having your aces cracked when your 80% or better to move onto a prize seat if you just fold the AA?

who was attacking anyone? not sure where that came from.

obviously if it's a satellite it's a different story, but i thought we were talking about sit 'n' gos where getting first is the priority.

[Wyte22]

Originally Posted by phosphorescence who was attacking anyone? not sure where that came from. obviously if it's a satellite it's a different story, but i thought we were talking about sit 'n' gos where getting first is the priority.

There was somewhat of an attack between two members saying something about not learning this or not. That's just unnecessary IMO. and yes Satellites are included in SnGs and MTTs because they use the same format.

EDIT: What i mean by same format is that the SnGs can have 9+ players and the MTTs can have 18-5000 players. They all have a prize pool like normal SnGs and MTTs but the payout structure is basically the same. They still pay cash but instead of spearding it out, and concentrating a good portion of it at the top 5 spots. They concerete 100% of the prize pool into the top spots making it much more important to outlive eveyrone else!

[liladypokerpro]

I think phosphorescence was just pointing out that lockwoodlad's comment was a bit patronizing...which is kinda true...I mean his comment on the article he read was fine...the addition of the comment 'if you can't see why you need to learn more' was a bit out of context.

[phosphorescence]

yeah that's what i was saying, because satellites pay places 1 through 5 (or whatever no.) the same, it is a different debate entirely. depending on the situation, i could fold AA or KK in a satellite if it was the bubble and the short stack was tiny, but i'm never doing it in a SnG where the prizes go up the higher up it gets.


and btw, it certainly was not an 'attack'

[Wyte22]

Originally Posted by liladypokerpro I think phosphorescence was just pointing out that lockwoodlad's comment was a bit patronizing...which is kinda true...I mean his comment on the article he read was fine...the addition of the comment 'if you can't see why you need to learn more' was a bit out of context.

I honestly found that comment to be rude. This is a beginner's forum, they come here to learn, so not only was that comment inapporiate, it kinda was offensive to people who WANT to learn why this or that is the way it is. I just don't think people need to respond to comments like that. Let it die.

If you can't say something positive in this forum and constructive/supportive of people who WANT to learn this game, then please, don't post.

[phosphorescence]

Originally Posted by Wyte22 I honestly found that comment to be rude. This is a beginner's forum, they come here to learn, so not only was that comment inapporiate, it kinda was offensive to people who WANT to learn why this or that is the way it is. I just don't think people need to respond to comments like that. Let it die. If you can't say something positive in this forum and constructive/supportive of people who WANT to learn this game, then please, don't post.

i can't see how any of what you just said has anything to do with what i said.

beginners learning: surely my comment helped them if anything, as his statement basically said 'there is certainly a time when you should fold aces & kings - fact', whereas i was offering a different opinion that maybe you should never fold aces (and probs kings) in a SnG.

how was anything i said offensive? i was basically saying 'you are stating opinion as fact, which is patronising'. his comment made it seem like if you had a different opinion on the subject you were less learned in poker than he, which i took exception to.
you obviously seem to have a problem with me from your last paragraph, but that's not going to stop me posting here i'm afraid.
this has just been blown way out of proportion by you, and i didn't want to get into some huge debate about it but after your last post i felt i had to.

[Wyte22]

Originally Posted by phosphorescence i can't see how any of what you just said has anything to do with what i said. beginners learning: surely my comment helped them if anything, as his statement basically said 'there is certainly a time when you should fold aces & kings - fact', whereas i was offering a different opinion that maybe you should never fold aces (and probs kings) in a SnG. how was anything i said offensive? i was basically saying 'you are stating opinion as fact, which is patronising'. his comment made it seem like if you had a different opinion on the subject you were less learned in poker than he, which i took exception to. you obviously seem to have a problem with me from your last paragraph, but that's not going to stop me posting here i'm afraid. this has just been blown way out of proportion by you, and i didn't want to get into some huge debate about it but after your last post i felt i had to.

I wasn't talking to you, I was talking about the orginial comment. Let it die ok and I do not have a problem with you, don't be dellusional and think so. I respect you and your opinions, I think you a very good poker player. Don't give me reasons to change my opinion of you

[liladypokerpro]

Ok ok ok....it's clear this was simply a misunderstanding from miscommunication. It is now clear that Wyte was in fact referring to lockwoodlad, and not phosphorescence...so, you two kiss and make up and let's move on...

[powrdragn]

I've recently come to the belief that there is no truly sound strategy to tournament poker and that people should stop trying to speak of one strategy being superior to another.

We have almost been overexposed to tournament poker. It's one of the reasons I play more ring games these days. There are a ton of players that do nothing buy study tournaments trategy. I've seen a chart for nearly every hand at every position and chip stack it seems.

Even the poker books have a ton of written strategy about tournaments.

I can't fault anyone for playing differently on the bubble than the next person. Many playesr are playing aggressive on the bubble, while others are playing completely passive. Some are playing super aggressive and getting in there with nothing, simply because they know (or have read) that it pays to steal the blinds/antes and not get blinded out.

I think there are a ton of strategies that are applicable to each situation. At this point in the progression of the game though it definitely comes down to personal play style and the skill of the opponents.

[phosphorescence]

Originally Posted by Wyte22 I wasn't talking to you, I was talking about the orginial comment. Let it die ok and I do not have a problem with you, don't be dellusional and think so. I respect you and your opinions, I think you a very good poker player. Don't give me reasons to change my opinion of you

ohhhhhhhhhhhh ok, that was the mother of all misunderstandings. i didn't think it made sense lol

[Vito_Nuccio]

Back to folding AA. My brain would run the numbers and I would not be folding. With proper reads KK can be let go, but not AA, no matter how many players in the hand. Yep, you could lose and not get paid, but if we are talking bubble money, it is not much more than the buy-in. A nice win would valut you to the upper ranks of stack strength for a run at the title.

Yes, maybe if I won a $50 satellite and am at the big tourney for a $10000 bubble payday, well, I could wait 5 more minutes and fold the AA, but I can not say 100% for sure, once again my brain will tell me the percentages and they will look good. I can not wait to be in that situation, hopefully I will have to make that decision some day.

Thanks,