Big Decision-What Would you Have Done?

[GainerRakeback]

I was at the casino recently playing $1 / $2 NLHE. I sat at an existing table, with $300 buy-in, and with a variety of players / personalities, chatting. (Playing live is much more fun - but that's another thread). Many players limp into a lot of pots hoping to get lucky, but my style is tight / aggressive. I wait for an opportunity, and play aggressively once I'm in. This day I didn't play after the flop for an hour. Finally got AJ, raised Preflop, and re-raised post flop the one bettor to $50 w/ a Jack high flop. After telling him he might as well put in his remaining $80 since it was going in on the next card anyway, he folded. (You can't really chat like that online, there's just not enough time and it's not the same as face-to-face). After a couple hours I was up to about $450.00, only playing about 3 hands post -flop, when this happened:

I'm dealt AK, raised pre-flop and got two callers.

Flop: KK3 (rainbow)

Player 1 and 2 check, but I bet it out. Player 1 calls and Player 2 folds. I figure Player 1 with a King, or he thinks I bluffing the K, and may be he's got AQ, AJ, QQ, JJ or some hand to call a pre-flop raise, and he thinks I'm bluffing. Player 1 is big guy, has some railbird male and female friends with him, he's drinking, and was earlier talking to his neighbors about their watches and cost, and has a lot of male jewelry. Appeared to be in the jewelry business and also has about $450.00 in front. He and I had the big stacks at the time. He appeared to be one of these rich big fish who was there for the action and entertainment of poker. But he could play. About an hour previously he was in a hand with the guy to my right who made an Ace high flush against Player 1's full house and he took down a big pot.

The turn is a 6.

Player 1 checks, and I bet about $30. Corrected. [Edit: to answer some questions, the pot is now still<$100] I just want to win the pot and move on. Player 1 now moves all in for about $400.00! That would put me all in. I look at him like Holy Sh*t ! A very big over bet of the pot. Why? I'm startled at the size of the bet, pulse goes waay up, and now try to figure out what he's got. My gut reaction was to insta-call. I think I gotta be good. I say out loud to him: I think you and I have the same hand, to get some information. He replys: Oh, really? But then the brain took over- did he call a pre-flop raise w/66 or 33 and make full house?? I was playing so good and per my Plan up to then. Do I want to blow it all with one mistake? I know I'd never sleep if he turned over a boat. I look at him, and he's leaning back in the chair rather unfazed. I tank for several minutes and apologize to the other players for taking so long. The pot is about a $900 which is really big for $1/2 and certainly the biggest I'd been involved in. I'm really uncertain what to do..

I'm curious what you all would have done? Please answer the poll, and in about a week I'll post an Edit with my play. Try to give an honest answer knowing the situation, history and amount of money involved. And if you've been involved in a similar situation, let us know.

EDIT: THE ANSWER:
I've posted the answer as a reply futher down in this thread. Thank to all for replying and analyzing.

[iceveins0901]

I would call, big flop for you, ok you can rebuy if he has a boat, but if no boat, you are destroying him.

[gamer4life27]

The only hands that can beat you is K6 (not likely to a pre flop raise), K3 (also not likely), 66 (not very likely odds) and 33 (also not very likely odds). But the 66 and 33 are the only hands that could beat you that you can put him on. Unless Player 1 was in the SB, or is very lose, he most likely isn't going to have 33. You never know, he might have called it just to see a flop, but highly unlikely, along with the 66. I would not fear a K6 or a K3 with your pre flop raise.

Three reasons to call here. One, to see what he has. If he has you beat, fine. Always nice to know his antics when he has a good hand, or how he plays. Two, it's highly unlikely he has you beat, as there is really only two hands (possibly one) to put him on to have you beat. And three, if you call and lose somehow, you can always re-buy with your new information that will most likely win you more money than you lost in that hand.

[frob23]

I'd call. I really doubt I'm beat here but if I am... that's life. I don't think I'm ever folding here.

Please note, "Fold and show" should read "Fold and show and then go kill myself for being a tard."

If you fold and show this hand, you are inviting the whole table to run you over for the rest of the night and unless you run into serious monsters you will have a losing session that would make the gods weep.

[pondragon]

I would fold. That's way too big of a overbet. You either have him crushed, or he has you crushed, but you're not committed at all.
It really looks like a 33 or 66 to me. And if he puts you on AK then he's just trying to max-extract you.

You didn't really give us any reads on the guy at all, except for "he could play" which means you don't believe he's a complete idiot.
It really depends on how good you think he is. No good player would ever do this with a hand that you beat.
You really don't beat anything here either. KQ and KJ never take this line here, and those are the only hands you really have beat. If KQ or less made a move like this, they are turning their hand into a bluff, which is retarded from a hand with so much showdown value.
An all in move like this by any one who's not a complete donk is only made by someone with a hand that believes your hand is too big to get away from (so it seems he's putting you on exactly what you have), so obviously they'd have to have you beat. This is not a bluff. The only people who make this kind of bet are either competent players or donkeys, not a good one but from what you seem to have noted, he is competent.

Again, it all depends on how good you feel he is. Maybe you can provide us with some better reads on him to further narrow the possibilities.

Edit: I forgot to add when folding, DO NOT SHOW. Folding and showing here is HORRIBLE imo.

[irishpkr]

Theres no insta-snap-why-have-I-only-got-two-fists-to-shove-fistpump-shove option, but I'm making that one. We lose to 3 combos of 33 realistically, maybe one or two of 66. So we're behind 4combos with trip kings.

"Three reasons to call here. One, to see what he has. If he has you beat, fine. Always nice to know his antics when he has a good hand, or how he plays."

Jesus Christ you want to stack off OVER TWO BUYINS for INFORMATION?! A good winrate is 10bb/100, you suggest any info gained here will be worth the equivalent of playing 2000hands? :/

"if you call and lose somehow, you can always re-buy"

This isnt a reason to stack off 200+BB either.

"I would call, big flop for you, ok you can rebuy if he has a boat, but if no boat, you are destroying him."

I didnt know the hand rankings of poker, cheers

""Fold and show" should read "Fold and show and then go kill myself for being a tard."

+11121212121



Just to wrap up, with the odds we're getting to call here, he only needs to be shoving here with THREE, yes THREE (maybe four ) combos that we beat. KQ alone is 4combos. Even if he's not doing it with KQ, I reckon he must have at least that number of combos of bluffs/'value shoves', no?

[frob23]

Originally Posted by pondragon You really don't beat anything here either. KQ and KJ never take this line here, and those are the only hands you really have beat.

This is a live $1/$2NL game. And I have seen many people take much worse lines. I can see him shoving a lot of hands here in a live game. Now, depending on the play before this... there are many possible hands he could be shoving that we beat. I could easily see him shoving most pairs here and easily see KQ as well.

Online at $200NL this would be a fairly standard fold. But live is just insane at times. Yeah it stinks when we're beat but how could you consider him a player unable to take this line if he's at the turn with a hand like 33 or 66?

Also, we have no idea how big the pot is here. A standard raise with 2 callers pre-flop and a decent bet on the flop... and would could easily have a $90 pot. And then we lead with $40 into $90... which seems very weak and he shoves over the top assuming we're scared of the Ks and might be able to get away from a hand like AA or QQ.

Since a pot sized bet would be $210 (assuming the numbers above) and that would leave him committed on the river anyway ($200 left and a $500 pot)... he could easily be shoving here to maximize his fold equity against those hands that he doesn't beat. He's almost sure to get KQ to fold... so if he's holding KJ, shoving might be the only chance he has to not lose his stack. Anyway, the whole point of these last two paragraphs is to say that we have no idea whether of not this is a HUGE overbet or a moderate overbet that takes into account river commitment.

I'm not saying his shove is the best line but it's certainly not the worse. If he's got a hand that beats us... I think a smaller raise here (to like $180-$200) would be much more threatening because a smart player knows that if we're going to call that, we'll be committed for the rest of our stack on the river. Shoving the underfull gives hands he can beat too much of a chance to get away.

[bossmanisme]

any K is just as likely, if not more, than a boat. easy call. he turns over his boat, you say "damn, what a cooler" and rebuy.

[Fictive]

I would call. It's not an insta-call, but definetely a call regardless. I would think he had either AK or by some weird chance KQ. If he did have 33 or 66, fine, cooler, what can you do? Nh, and reload. Even if he did have either of those, you would still have a dazzling 4 outs to get lucky, 8.7%. That huge shove seems extremely weird to me, screaming AK or KQ. Meh, that's how I would've played it anyway.

[evilclownx]

personally im callin everytime there id genuinely put him on same hand or kq hoping u dont hit a house and thats why he shoved

[pondragon]

How can just ASSUME that he's a donkey and put in the rest of our stack (only 10% of our stack is in here) with a marginal hand (yes this is a marginal hand because the only things we beat are bluffs)?

OP noted that he appeared to be a "rich big fish", but "he could play".

33 is the most likely hand here. Most players do call with small pocket pairs preflop to hit a set, and this is a dream flop for 33.
It's not too hard to see someone showing up with 66 on the turn here as well, having not believed your cbet on the flop...but after your turn aggression
It's obvious you have a king and he shoves for value after hitting his gin card.

The guy also just took down a large pot with a boat vs nut flush so it seems he may be on a heater. Also, notes about how he played his boat vs the nut flush hand would be helpful in this situation as well.

Simply put, with the minimal read you have on the guy, you have to fold here. you've got 10% of your stack in here and you're playing a very marginal hand with a guy you have no reads on. If he's got KQ or KJ (or even QQ), he's a donkey and you can find better opportunities where you don't have to guess and you will develop a better read.

I just don't think it's +EV to put in 90% of your big stack in here with a marginal hand and basically no read - AKA a guess.

[joemac696969]

Depends on what tells you might have on him, how many hands he has played. personally I would probably call and hope he is bluffing, and if he has you then you take it on the chin and rebuy.Good Luck and I hope you won the hand lol.

[BUILDMO]

the guy was obvioiusly trying to buy the pot
get that money in baby

[Vito_Nuccio]

Tough situation. Since it is a cash game and you are already ahead for a good amount there is no pressure for you to put out a huge call. You can fold and take profits home. If you do call, be prepared for anything. You could be beat, with possible outs, or in the lead. Your read is inconclusive, so now we are back to pot and stack odds. You said this player was a 'player', so he should have noticed your 3 flop per hour pace regardless of his social interests and 'looking out the window' antics. If so, he knows you have something when going to the flop. He could easliy put you on AK.

You do not have to risk the chips in front of you. You have already earned them, it is not tournament play where you need all the chips at the end. You must make the decision, do you want to risk the current profit on a possible killing (or getting crushed if you are wrong)? A better read would definitely help and is necessary to make these critical decisions.

Since we are here talking about it I am guessing you lost, he had 33 and spiked the flop. I hope I am wrong, but 'happy I win close call stories' usually do not get to the forums.

As for what I would do, I do not know. One thing is, never show your hand, throw it into the muck. The only time to show a hand is if you have a player pegged and by showing them will set them on tilt. I would have to be seated in your chair to fully absorb the situation. The poker inner voice would speak up after analyzing all possible data. But you should have some sort of read on a player after hours of play and is the key to this puzzle. Throw in your table image and current profit, for the moment I lean towards folding.................

Later,

[irishpkr]

We have no history/reads, we lose to like 4combos, and we seriously want to fold here? I'm not sure I can state that enough, we lose to like 4 combos. Just think of even 3 combos he could be doing this with that beat, and we have a +ev situation. Surely he knows you will have fold underpairs to this action. If you're gonna fold this, just stay at home and use the greens to keep a fire going imo

[AnArkhos]

Didn't u want comments or not?

I'd call here. There are hands that can beat you, sure, but how would you play them?

Would you go blasting people out of the pot with the nuts? His hand is propably K and some other high card like J or Q, perhaps even an A.

Worst case scenario is still pretty good. Any further pairing will make your hand the best FH, Ace on the table would do too.

So even in the worst case scenario, your hand would still be alive, not with great percentages but still..

[Vito_Nuccio]

Originally Posted by irishpkr We have no history/reads, we lose to like 4combos, and we seriously want to fold here? I'm not sure I can state that enough, we lose to like 4 combos. Just think of even 3 combos he could be doing this with that beat, and we have a +ev situation. Surely he knows you will have fold underpairs to this action. If you're gonna fold this, just stay at home and use the greens to keep a fire going imo

It does not matter if only one hand beats him. If the read and feel says it, fold. To sit with a player for hours and not have a good enough read/feel is the problem here. Without sitting at this table none of us can be sure of the action to take which puts us back to the fact you are up 50% of a buy in at this point and must call a $400 bet to win about $45 (stated pot was under 100 when 400 bet made, most one player can contribute is less than 50). Not good pot odds.......

Later,

[rakmupagain]

instacall, ship it, he has kq or bluff. I dont really see what the discussion is about, if you play poker to win, and have a bankroll big enough to play at the game, YOU CALL. If he has u beat, i dont think he shoves, and if he does good for him reload. It was brought up already, but how did he play his previous boat and is there a fluh/flush draw on the board? Whether or not there is a flush on baord or is MAJORLY important deciding what his shoving range is here. If he has a boat, he wouldnt shove a flush draw off of the hand if he has any clue, right? I sure hope you called.

[HeyKidMove]

Yeah, no doubt I call here. I wouldn't insta call, but close. The fact of the matter is that these are $1/2 live players. Some of the situation contradicts a little bit here, but you said he looks like he's well off, and has a small group of friends with him. Idk what you're basing your idea that he can play off of, but that would also be helpful information. Someone said that nobody would take this line with a hand that we beat, but honestly not many players at the stakes live put much thought into what they're doing and what hands they're getting value from. That's a horrible reason to fold. The thing that popped into my mind (Idk if anyone already said this) is that if he does have a group of friends there he could just be trying to bluff you to show off. At any rate I think folding here is terrible, there are a ton of hands that you beat and only a few that have you crushed. You're there to win money so when you have a dominant hand like this you have to put it in.

[pondragon]

Originally Posted by rakmupagain If he has u beat, i dont think he shoves, and if he does good for him reload.

This is why he shoves. He can profitably shove with 33 or 66 here because most players can not give up AK in this spot. The majority of the people responding here would instacall, and if they're beat..."oh well", and that is exactly why a shove here is profitable against inexperienced players. That is a horrible mentality.

KQ never shoves here and no bluff shoves here either. Infact, KQ pushing here makes his hand a bluff, because only better hands will call, and worse hands will fold. The only time he'll show up with KQ or complete air here is if he is an absolute beginner, and the OP seems to have informed us otherwise.

Originally Posted by irishpkr We have no history/reads, we lose to like 4combos, and we seriously want to fold here? I'm not sure I can state that enough, we lose to like 4 combos.

Losing to 4 possible hands is a high enough number to consider folding. It'd be different if the board was like QQAA where only 1 hand beats you.

You have ~45$ of 450$ invested in this spot and horrible horrible odds. This is a difficult spot, and you can find better spots. ESPECIALLY if he's bad enough to shove KQ or worse in here.

Originally Posted by Vito_Nuccio Since we are here talking about it I am guessing you lost, he had 33 and spiked the flop. I hope I am wrong, but 'happy I win close call stories' usually do not get to the forums.

Haha that's so true. How often is anyone going to show up with a post like this when they played it right? Anyways I also believe he lost the pot. Sorry >.<