Bluffing Calculater

[PointerJake]

I recently ran across an article which talked about a bluffing formula that gives you a percentage on when and when not to bluff. This is the first time I had ever heard of this and wanted to know if you guys had heard of it and what you thought. There is a video in the article that explains this better so I will post that and you all can watch it.

I ve never transfored a video before so I hope it works. If not sorry and I will try it again.

YouTube - Garth Sundem: When to Bluff Equation

[liladypokerpro]

I have never seen this but it is definitely interesting!!! I wonder how long he had to work on that before he got it to work out the way he wanted it......pretty ingenius stuff (if it works)

[Huskers314]

Thanks for the vid....wish he'd have shown an example though for us non math majors.

[PointerJake]

yea it seems a bit complicated, and Im think there might be too many variables involved. I dont know though it might work, I think I might try it out and see. I dont like bluffing though because it usually leads to big trouble for me. Ill semi-bluff though

[Vito_Nuccio]

Thanks for the video. Putting the algebra aside, lets break down what he is really saying. He is combining position, number of players, hand strength and other factors and coming up with a percentage for a decision. Cool, but you do not have to run the concrete numbers, you could take all the factors mentioned, put a weight on them, mix it all together in your head and come up with an answer. He did a pretty good job of translating thoughts and feelings into an equasion. You can do the same with mostly gut feelings for the variables and come up with something similiar. Still a neat new approach to bluffing.

Thanks,

[MikeyInc]

Niceeeeeeeeeeeee Breakdown!

[supergenius3]

Pretty good idea, but I think the size of the pot relative to people's stack sizes has a lot to do with it. Even if you have position, a tight image, and bluffing a skilled player, theres still no point in doing it if the pot is small. By not bluffing at small pots, I can tighten my table image so that it is easier to steal the bigger pots.

[wex_69]

looks interesting but i cant really see this actually working out

[frob23]

Well, you're just making most of these numbers up as you go. So it's a little arbitrary.

I found the discussion on when to bluff in The Theory of Poker a lot more interesting. Even if it works mainly for games where the last card is hidden... it still has some potential for flop games. The basic idea being that you should bluff with odds approaching the pot odds being offered to call your bluff. Basically, if your bet offers 9-1 for the other person to call it then you should only bluff in that spot 10% of the time. That, in itself, applies a little more to limit but it has its application in NL. You'll hear that bluffing is more important in NL than in limit and this is because you can offer worse odds for the person to call it. If your bet is going to offer them 2-1 on a call... you [mathematically] should be bluffing as often as 33% of the time. Of course, you bluff less often than this because: your own risk is higher, you are unlikely to be in a spot to make a complete bluff if you're on 5th street, your bluff needs to make sense in the hand, and so on. But the idea is the same. Think of the continuation bet... it's basically a bluff which is tailored to be profitable because the amount of time you do it and the pot odds being offered (as well as the odds of you improving your hand) all approach each other.

The Theory of Poker gets even more in detail where you designate certain cards which do not help your hand to indicate the times you should bluff. And you pick enough of these that the frequency approaches the pot-odds being offered when you make the bet.

Most bluffing is assumed to take place in pots with 2-3 players (including yourself) max. This is a smart assumption in almost all games. So those variables aren't as important. You bluff less often against people who call too much and more often against those who fold too much, But you still start with the pot-odds being offered.

There's a little more to it. But I find that is is more feasible because 1) it has mathematical sense and game theory behind it which supports the fact that it's a profitable way to bluff, 2) it's simple enough to use and be aware of in the flow of the game, and 3) you're not pulling numbers out of thin air to plug in... you're actually using numbers you can see and which relate to the play at hand.

[PointerJake]

I tried this formula this weekend when I played and it seems like it worked, I only used it on certian occasions. I think if you group this areas together and sum them up in generalizations it would be much easier to use.

[AnArkhos]

Nice. Gotta check out the site he mentioned and go through the equation.

[Nate5]

This equation is, for lack of a better word, silly. This guy wrote a book on how to throw algebra into everyday situations to tell you what you should do, this bluff calculator is just another example of that. It isn't practical to use this calculator in a real situation (especially because some of the numbers are ridiculous [i.e. how good are your players, rate them one to ten?]). He does, however, make a good overall point. You should bluff when there are few players in the pot, when you're in position, when you're playing with nits, and so on. You don't need a calculator to tell you should bluff when you're on the button with two other players in with 30 BB in the pot and the other players are you displaying weakness, if you need to use a calculator to tell you when to bluff, you simply are not a good player.

[DaGreenster]

this is a joke. this guy obviously knows something about poker, but applying an equation to it and specifying certain parameters for bluffing? well come on people we all bluff at certain times and not at other times. it appears as though hes focusing on bluffing the flop. while most bluffs should take place on the flop and turn or be a continuation from flop to turn or preflop, flop and then turn. this is not something to look into, it will merely stunt your game from developing naturally. yes it is kinda interesting... but regardless, a bluff starts either on the flop or preflop. rarely do you BEGIN a bluff on the turn. anyways, i dont think this has any application other than full ring play. shorthanded this would not work nor would it work in HU play. as for tourney play... i really dont think it would be a good idea to test out the formula in this situation.

in essense, BOOOOOO to the equation. two thumbs down.

-Green