interesting hand

[Vito_Nuccio]

The good news is the result of this thread becoming a high level discussion of the hand; great for the forums, the bad news is, it is hard to apply to low limit games. BB of 25 cents, the guy under the gun could have anything, everyone could have anything. We are all talking at a level above a 25 cent decision, the call before the flop means they have two cards, they could be good, med, or bad. Usually a bet of half of ones stack means monster or bluff, but near the bottom of the blind pool, who knows what is lurking.


Bye,

[stoffmakers]

vito, thanks for ur input but i think you are underestimating the ability of .25 bb players. in fact, i play 1-2 live but actually multitable 0.25bb or .50bb online cuz of my roll online. i prob shoulda looked up the players info.

[Wallace]

For the record it's 7 outs against a pocket pair lower than queens (AAAKKK4).

[stoffmakers]

wallace, did anyone say otherwise or are you just pointing that out, thanks anyawys.

[Wallace]

Yeah they did...

Originally Posted by irishpkr Usually you're gonna be drawing to 6outs

[irishpkr]

Right you are But I did the calculation on Stove so its fine :P

[stoffmakers]

anyone care to justify a fold using some math, im curious to know.

[Wallace]

Irish has already done all the math you can do in this situation...

Originally Posted by irishpkr $5.60 in the pot pre, you're putting in $11 to win $11 + $5.6, need roughly 40% equity here. We have about 28% when villian has a pair, and around 76% when he is unpaired say. So for 40% equity 28x + (1-x)76 = 40 x= 0.75 So if you think villian is bluffing more than 25% of the time here, its right to call. Personally I can't put him on a bluff that often :/ Either way its high variance stuff

To simplify what he said: your chance of winning the hand against pocket pairs is 28% but you would be contributing 40% of the pot (11/27.6*100) so there is no equity if you think he has a pair. The only way you have equity is if you think he is bluffing, if there is a greater chance that 25% that he is bluffing then its right to call.

If you want that in terms of "folding" then:

If you think that he has the pocket pair more than 75% of the time then fold.

[stoffmakers]

i think theres no way he has a poker pair 75% of the time so good push by me i guess lol.

[Wallace]

So what was the result?

[stoffmakers]

wallace, already posted the result on page 2, post #17 in this thread.

[Jonathank]

the moral of the story is: use your judgement. there are no answers, just results.