Math vs. Instinct

[Brooklynbum]

This was debated with a friend of mine recently and I thought this would make an interesting thread.

How many of you guys rely solely on math for your decision making?

Do you always call when the odds dictate you should?

Or do you guys rely on your reads and instinct more when you're playing?

My friend swears by the Math for almost all his decisions (whether it's bluffing, calling or raising etc.).

I do rely on odds a lot but often I rely on my gut instinct or my reads.

Just thought I'd throw this out there...

[liladypokerpro]

This is a great topic. Some situations call for math over all else; In all other cases I rely mostly on my reads as well as that "little voice" as it has so far never steered me wrong. In all cases, odds do tend to come into play, but math is rarely my sole reason for making any move at any given time. It is used when needed, but otherwise my choices come from solid reads, thought and replaying the hand in my mind up to the point of decision.

Great thread...should get a lot of responses.

[irishpkr]

I'll happily admit to being an odds guy. If I'm heads up with a 40BB shortstack who raises to 4BB, I'm folding mid to low pocket pairs and SC which I might normally play against a full 100BB stack, for example. Reads help, but so often you never will have that killer tell on someone, so you have to go to ABC play, which is where the maths comes in.

[FundelMental]

I mainly try to see what cards have been hitting,then if i get a lets say A-J in a nlhe game i try to look back or remember what has been hitting if my cards havent hit much that im holding then im in. Mainly this is for online play only seems to work. ill be watching this thread to see how people respond to your thread i would like to see there thoughts on this.

[irishpkr]

Cards don't have a memory....

[st_ever]

I use maths when making the opponent make the decision. For example if reraisng i raise so pot odds would say not to call this is only really when im shortstacking.

As for my own decisions unless i feel i have a good read he may be bluffing i will generally fold if i think i'm beat even with reasonable pot odds.

[Fictive]

Hmm, I guess a mix of everything. I tend to go with the odds, but there are so many different factors to think about. For example a lot players c-bet the flop (rightfully so), and don't give you odds to draw, but then they either check the turn or bet way too little, hence giving you a chance to draw. Then there's a huge factor that you need to remember: implied odds. Is your opponent going to hand out some more money if you hit your nut flush/nut straight? Then there's naturally that "gut feeling". If I believe the opponent didn't hit, or isn't all too strong, I'll just make a hefty raise. Loads of things to consider, and at least in my case, there's no clear answer.

[Brooklynbum]

Implied odds is another story (for me at least anyway).

A player may make a good bet so that correct odds to call if you're chasing isn't in your favor.

Do you then, call or raise for implied odds even though you're not getting correct odds to call in the first place?

If that's the case then your implied odds are always good b/c you can stack an opponent if you hit your draw. It's a tricky situation when it comes to implied odds in my opinion. I just think that a lot of players who think they understand implied odds, in reality do not. They just throw that term around b/c they've heard it on a poker forum and then there are others who know what the implied odds really mean.

In my opinion, implied odds also has a hand reading component involved, such as you reasonably put your opponent on Two Pair or a set and you're drawing to the nut flush. Once you hit your flush, chances are you're going to get paid off or if you miss you're getting stacked (this is simplistic I know but we're just debating here).

The thing is that I've learned to use math to compliment my reads more often than not.

Everything in poker is situational. I've won a lot of money from people pushing with a draw (implied odds in addition to folding equity I assume) and I've lost money on the same type of play also.

Looking forward to addtional comments...

[liladypokerpro]

Originally Posted by st_ever I use maths when making the opponent make the decision. For example if reraisng i raise so pot odds would say not to call this is only really when im shortstacking.

That can be a well-thought out plan, but that is of course assuming that the opponent understands pot odds

[Vito_Nuccio]

I am and always have been a math guy, but also play by feel. I run the numbers for every situation and make a decision. I treat my reads and gut feelings as variables in the whole equasion, throw all of it into my brain and a poker decision comes out. Well, sometimes a headache comes out, but for the most part the machine seems to work.

Thanks,

[Brooklynbum]

Great posts people. It's interesting to see how people think about the game.

I was in a situation recently, where I was short stacked in a SNG.

I had Q/J diamonds. Two guys are all in. I'm getting better than 4-1 if I call off my chips (when you include limpers and the blinds).

Now, the two guys who are all in are pretty tight.

Mathematically, I should call as I'm getting great odds on my money but my gut tells me that I'm way behind because these two guys are super tight and they would only call or go all in only if they had something pretty strong.

So I fold this hand even though I know mathematcally I should call.

I would've hit my flush anyway so it was too bad I folded but if I called I would've been up against AA and QQ (which takes away my outs).

I wound up busting out anyway so in retrospect, I should've called with better than 4-1 odds I guess or did I make the right move in folding and trusting my gut?

This is where the debate comes in because my buddy says I should've called in this situation especially since I was shortstacked and I might not get another chance to quadruple up again. I countered that I was going up against two super tight players who probably own some of my outs so my gut told me to wait for something else to try and double or triple up.

He's right, most of the time I'd be willing to stick my chips in when I'm shortstacked and getting better than 4-1 and I would've done it if I had something that I thought was more live than Q/J suited....say something like 8/9, 7/8, 6/7, 5/6 suited is better in this spot to call as I'm sure these cards probably are more live as compared to Q/J suited, taking in consideration with what the all ins are probably holding. Heck even 10/8 or 8/6 suited would be ok to call when I'm getting better than 4-1 and I'm shortstacked.

Funny thing is that I told him if I was holding a small pair, I'd probably fold. Weird.

Well anyway...looking forward to more comments and thoughts....

[nebster]

Very interesting post. I usually go with my gut, which was right in this situation for you. I usually dont use the pot odds thing unless I am a big stack and I have people covered or I have made the money...short stacked and basically have nothing to lose.

You made the best move with the info you had at the time and would have needed a miracle to take the hand which just happened to come in.

[JonaBullets]

Well your read was right... You were getting 4:1 on your money... But you said yourself they were tight players. Asuming that one of the players had 1 dimond in their hand, you were only 12% to win the hand (About 8:1 Under).
I probably would have folded the hand to (depending on how many BBs I had left)
I spose some times you have to get it in on a draw, or when your behind, or when your ahead.
You cant win tournys only playing made hands. You have to win the odd race or 9:1 under.
But again. I think it was a good lay down, knowing they were tight. You cant put it all in on a hope and a dream. Not if the gut is saying to fold.
The suck out would have been good to see agaist AA and QQ though.

also to add, was this on PokerStars/JokerStars/RiverStars? If so... def call for sure. LOL

[ShoEnuff9]

I think a combination works best. but I definitely play the math almost 90% of the time in the begginning part of a tournament or right when I sit down to a cash table, but once I get a read on people I will play it 90% instinct. sometimes it's hard to get reads on people online though. Every once in a while the donk or the calling station actually hits a big hand and you can't rely on the instinct