Check This Out.

[MikeyInc]

Hey guys, so I've been tinkering with this idea as of late. Tell me what you guys think.

The basic premise of the idea is to 5bet shove these 3 sc's: 56s, 67s, 78s over someone whom we have pegged as a lite 4-bettor.

Now heres some mathematical analysis:

Why these 3 hands u should ask? Well, its very plain and simple. These 3 hands fair the best vs. AA/KK mathematically when played for stacks all in pf.

Hand 0: 77.589% 77.40% 00.19% 190854636 458316.00 { KK+ }
Hand 1: 22.411% 22.22% 00.19% 54800508 458316.00 { 87s, 76s, 65s }

Why 3 sc's? Why not 2, or 1?

The answer to this is to balance our range of ultra lite 5bet shoving vs 5bet shoving with nut hands. There are 6 combos of AA, and 6 for KK, for a total of 12 combos of essentially the nuts in a LP vs Blind, LP vs LP, or blind vs blind battle which you would be 5 bet shoving also. Since each sc has 4 combos, raising 3 of them (for a total of 12 combos) would have you 5bet bluff shoving with a very balanced range since half the time you would have a sc and the other half the time a big Party Poker. This is of course assuming you 3bet these sc's in the first place, which for most players is the norm nowadays.


A mathematical scenario:

Now assuming our opponents calling range of our 5bet bluff shove is QQ+, AKo, AKs. Here is how our 5 bet shove bluff range fairs against it:

Hand 0: 68.999% 68.80% 00.20% 480617304 1425032.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 31.001% 30.80% 00.20% 215152664 1425032.00 { 87s, 76s, 65s }

Now lets say we have our opponent pegged as a light 4 bettor, and is 4 betting all his AX, as well as JJ+ type hands with the intention of folding to a shove with anything JJ or under or AQ and under. Assuming he is a taggish-aggro type player who raises A8o+, from the co/button this would mean he would be 4betting us with a range of 10.9% of hands. Assuming he calls our shove with only QQ+, AKo/AKs (a range of 2.6%) and folds everything else, this would mean he would be folding roughly about 3 out of every 4 times he 4bets us.

Now lets measure this in a table situation:

Assuming a 5/10 nl game with standard 100 bb stacks. We are in the BB with 67s, our opponent raises the button to 35$, we repop to 125$ and he 4bets us to $325. Assuming we have him pegged as a lite 4bettor and is 4betting the range we specified above. He would be folding to our shove 3/4 of the time which results in us getting +455$ each time he folds. Now the 1 time he calls us, we will still have 31% equity vs his calling range, so will only lose $690 over the long run when we get our 100bb stacks in (assuming he doesnt adjust his calling range to us - once he sees us doing this he may adjust and start calling our shoves with AQ/JJ, etc - but this will also benefit us in the fact that our big pocket pairs will now get paid off more often). So this results in a total equity of roughly +$168.75 (factor in the fact that half the time we will be in the sb instead and it will come out to approx. 17bbs) every time we do this.



Thoughts?


(for those of you that have to much time on your hands and cannot see the Obvious). This was a interesting post i found... i copy and pasted.. the entire thing ... or so i though .. i figured the guy would have credited himself somewhere there.. ironically. irishpkr did make some scene. seeing that this post must have raised flags everywhere. seeing the content isn't to my par. Sorry Guys i didnt think that it woulda have been such a discussion. it looked self explanatory to me ..

[irishpkr]

OK this is too easy to spot as an obvious attempt at 'I want to get into the freeroll so I'll post something useful'. Lets take it slowly and go through this:

I want you to google: 'The answer to this is to balance our range of ultra lite 5bet shoving'
How many results do you get? Personally I got 2, the first of which took me here: PokerForums.org - View Single Post - A Theory Idea to combat lite 4 betting.
This was posted almost 3 months ago, and is, WORD FOR WORD, the same as this thread. The poster of the original article defines himself a 'poker professional' living in Ontario, Canada. Mikey himself, an IT woker from Florida. I'm not all that familiar with North American geography, but I'm quite sure these are different places.

Perhaps more telling is the fact that the style of this post is so unlike anything I've ever seen from Mikey. Lets compare and contrast this offering with say, How Would u Handle The Flop?

This post is articulate and well laid out, whereas the typical offering has the grammatical and structural grace of the writing of an 8year old.

I hope this evidence is enough to convince you, and the mods, that this is a direct copy&paste - intellectual theft for the purpose of gaining entry to the $100 freeroll.

Thanks, Ian

[PiJuice15]

lol, I love it... nice hand irishpkr, well played!

[Wyte22]

YTMND - You Just Got Owned

[Brooklynbum]

Nice one Irish.

I hope you don't work for the IRS.

[iceveins0901]

NH irish


and lol I would hate to get my money in 1 to 1 when I am over a 3 to 1 dog, that is poor play imo

should the question be if mikey understands the pokerstove he has given us?

[edit] i didnt read the rest of the post about trying to get people to fold, either way, lol

[irishpkr]

Bumped for love

[liladypokerpro]

OMG ummmmmm......wow.....

[irishpkr]

Originally Posted by liladypokerpro OMG ummmmmm......wow.....

..is right

[HeyKidMove]

People must just be desperate to get into the PTOW freeroll.

[frob23]

Originally Posted by HeyKidMove People must just be desperate to get into the PTOW freeroll.

Although I admit, this is pretty crazy, aren't we jumping to conclusions awfully fast here? Perhaps he made a mistake and meant to post the attribution to the original author. He might not have even been thinking of the thread of the week and was just trying to start a thread on something he saw that interested him.

I admit it's sort-of incriminating... but I don't know that we're right to assume intentional misdeeds here. Perhaps Mikey can explain why he posted this, what his intentions were, and why he didn't reference the original author.

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

[Not saying Mikey is stupid but I thought this quote fit. We're assuming malice awfully quickly here,]

[irishpkr]

OK I'll be honest, it could just be an honest mistake on Mikey's part, but couldnt he have just linked it to us? Said 'I saw this...' or something similar. Innocent until proven guilty blahblah, but when there's money involved, your motives change. And ofcourse a scandal is a lot more fun eh? :P

EDIT: Just as a point: Consider this from the perspective of a mod - would you consider this worthy for PTOTW? Ofcourse, its really useful stuff. If someone just linked to the site, would it still be worthy of PTOTW consideration? I'm not so sure.

RE-EDIT: Another thing that until now I hadn't thought of - I notice that Mikey posts only tournament hands, ofc this is purely cash game advice. In addition the original thread is 3 months old, why wait till now? Or was it just randomly looking through forum archives? Ofcourse now Mikey has no recourse, as its either 1. a deliberate act to try to cheat us or 2. he'll have a hell of a time convincing us otherwise

[frob23]

Originally Posted by irishpkr OK I'll be honest, it could just be an honest mistake on Mikey's part, but couldnt he have just linked it to us? Said 'I saw this...' or something similar. Innocent until proven guilty blahblah, but when there's money involved, your motives change. And ofcourse a scandal is a lot more fun eh? :P EDIT: Just as a point: Consider this from the perspective of a mod - would you consider this worthy for PTOTW? Ofcourse, its really useful stuff. If someone just linked to the site, would it still be worthy of PTOTW consideration? I'm not so sure.

No, it wouldn't be unless it contained a significant portion of new material and only referenced that original post. Since it's supposed to reward new material. Which is one reason I admit that it looks odd. I think it was right to point out that this was copied... so no mistakes are made if a mod misses that it's not original content. Now that the details have been made clear, I think we should see what Mikey has to say in his defense before we run off 20 pages of posts, form a lynch mob, and burn him in effigy when it gets too annoying to meet up in person.

[irishpkr]

But who knows when he'll turn up again? Might have to wait till maybe...tomorrow? F that!
I'll bring the matches, you get the gas (cheaper over there )

[MikeyInc]

have you guys noticed i haven't even played in the last 3 of those tourneys i was eligible for? ... the 100 dollar freeroll isn't important. hints the title (check this out) .. that's normally said when you find something interesting. Yeah... thought so. K Thanks



P.S Check out thread now!.. is that more descriptive for you ?

[HeyKidMove]

Originally Posted by MikeyInc have you guys noticed i haven't even played in the last 3 of those tourneys i was eligible for? ... the 100 dollar freeroll isn't important. hints the title (check this out) .. that's normally said when you find something interesting. Yeah... thought so. K Thanks P.S Check out thread now!.. is that more descriptive for you ?

I apologize for jumping to conclusions, it was uncalled for.

[liladypokerpro]

Originally Posted by MikeyInc have you guys noticed i haven't even played in the last 3 of those tourneys i was eligible for? ... the 100 dollar freeroll isn't important. hints the title (check this out) .. that's normally said when you find something interesting. Yeah... thought so. K Thanks P.S Check out thread now!.. is that more descriptive for you ?

Hey Mikey...just a hint...anytime I find something which requires a complete copy and paste (it's rare, but on occasion I do find something like that), Before I even paste anything, I give the Reference name, or source of information, and then say "Please do not consider for PTOTW" ~ Then I paste whatever it was that I found of interest that was copied. It helps shed more light for those who have "a lot of time on their hands," as you put it Not to mention it clearly shows that the copy and paste is not intended for a nomination to the freeroll...that way people KNOW you are simply posting because you felt it was interesting or might help another player.


Just a thought

[MikeyInc]

Originally Posted by liladypokerpro Hey Mikey...just a hint...anytime I find something which requires a complete copy and paste (it's rare, but on occasion I do find something like that), Before I even paste anything, I give the Reference name, or source of information, and then say "Please do not consider for PTOTW" ~ Then I paste whatever it was that I found of interest that was copied. It helps shed more light for those who have "a lot of time on their hands," as you put it Not to mention it clearly shows that the copy and paste is not intended for a nomination to the freeroll...that way people KNOW you are simply posting because you felt it was interesting or might help another player. Just a thought

yeah i was really on edge that day .. i admidt .. i missed a few Key words there.. once again sorry guys !

[bigfranky]

thought about it, testeted it, its well -ev after the first one gets picked off as your immage is gone