Quote:
Originally Posted by gorden71 How should you play pocket kings on the bubble in an MTT? Here's an example. There are 75 players left with 70 receiving money in a tournament that originally had 800 entrants.
You have 20k and the blinds are at 800-1,600.
Now, you get K K in the small blind. The UTG player limps and it's folded to you. You go all-in to steal the money already in the pot, and because you don't want to get outdrawn by an Ax hand. Your opponent calls with pocket aces and you're busted on the bubble.
But the question is: how should you play pocket kings in a situation like this?
A. All-in
B. Raise to 5000
C. Limp |
The question becomes, are we folding to an all-in in this spot? If we raise 5k and the UTG player makes it 20k to go... can we fold? The pot's over 27,000 (by my estimate) if we raise 5k and the UTG player shoves. This is almost 2-1 pot odds. If we fold after making the raise, we have 15k which is an M of about 6. We're going to be in bad shape (and this assumes no antes) very quickly. Are we likely to find a better hand than KK to go with before we go broke? If we even do get a better hand, and double up later... it might not make much of an impression if we have to wait a couple rounds to hit that hand.
I don't know how much more the early money is, compared to the buy-in, but it's probably barely more than the buy-in itself. It might be double the buy-in but surely not much more than that. Meanwhile, the bigger money is much deeper and that's where you're trying to go. If just making it ITM is going to make a huge difference in your bankroll, you're playing outside your bankroll.
So, how am I playing this? This is an easy all-in. I am not folding to the shove (there's no way, unless he shows me the Aces after making the bet and before I can call). I shove without a second thought here. Shoving gives me the most fold-equity against a hand like A-Js which might be limped early. But even if we assume this guy never limps early and this probably means A-A... I still shove because it very well might not be. It could be a lower pair... a high suited Ace... it could be a lot and he could just be doing something weird. There's not likely to be a better place to get my chips in. And if I go broke to AA with KK here, that's poker. And I move on with my life.