calling a flush draw

[BUILDMO]

a 25% chance exists while you wait for the river...
what do you do if you hold the nuts draw?
the guy in front of you just went all in (avg.stack), but this will surely put you out if you don't hit the flush.
is he bluffing?

[Wyte22]

Depends on Pot odds. Against an all in and facing elimination, I personally consider the following:

1. What is my Q (Tourney)?

2. What is my M (tourney)?

3. How many until ITM (if this a tourney)?

4. What is his aggression rating?

5. Am I the last person to act?

6. Where are we at in the tourney and What's the makeup of my table.

If my Q and M are low in the tourney and my table is made up of loose and aggressive players then yes, I will call at 4 to 1 pot odds. If we are getting closer to the money, I need better odds (I will call if the pot is offering me 6.5 to 1 if we are close to ITM). If I am NOT the last person to act, then I probably won't call unless I have really good odds right there (6 to 1 or better). if my villian(s) have high aggression ratings, my pot odds lower considerably, cuz There's a good chance, that my Ace is best pre-flop!! they could be making moves with trash and trying to pick up the pot. Early on in Tourneys, I would NEVER make this call. Even if the pot odds were good, because your M and Q is relatively high at this point. You don't need to make gambles with your stack to stay alive!

Basically, It boils down to the situation, to determine whether or not I am gonna call.

[frob23]

It's a 20% chance to hit your flush... roughly 4-1.

There's very few situations where I am calling an all-in here. Even if it's +EV normally... like I am being offered 6-1 pot odds... I am folding here.

Even though I will have a 40% ROI (with the 6-1 odds), I will be broke 80% of the time... and unable to take future bets which might not have the same expectation but have much less risk of ruin. I would rather get a 5% ROI on a bet that I will win 80% of the time than 40% on a bet I will lose 80% of the time if both bets will leave me broke if I lose.

[Wyte22]

Originally Posted by frob23 It's a 20% chance to hit your flush... roughly 4-1. There's very few situations where I am calling an all-in here. Even if it's +EV normally... like I am being offered 6-1 pot odds... I am folding here. Even though I will have a 40% ROI (with the 6-1 odds), I will be broke 80% of the time... and unable to take future bets which might not have the same expectation but have much less risk of ruin. I would rather get a 5% ROI on a bet that I will win 80% of the time than 40% on a bet I will lose 80% of the time if both bets will leave me broke if I lose.

Like I said, it depends on the situation but I'd rather call and lose with that late in the tourney than to be blinded out slowly. one of the quotes from HoH that really hit home with me was

"There is hidden value in moving in sooner rather than later" Which is if you move in and double your M from 5 to 10 that is good

But if you wait and double your M from 1.5 to 3, your still in the red zone and you need to constantly be pushing the issue.

Stack sizes are a major consideration for justifying an all in move here. Also, play styles. I am Aggressive, so 6 to 1, late in tourney, Low M/Q......I am making this call without hesitation because as I've heard before "You can't win big until you are willing to go broke"

[epetel]

Originally Posted by Wyte22 I am Aggressive, so 6 to 1, late in tourney, Low M/Q......I am making this call without hesitation because as I've heard before "You can't win big until you are willing to go broke"

Although i'm making this call too in some situations this has nothing to do with how aggressive you are. There is nothing aggressive in calling.

[Wyte22]

Originally Posted by epetel Although i'm making this call too in some situations this has nothing to do with how aggressive you are. There is nothing aggressive in calling.

yes there is, this is an example of borderline calls. Conservative players will almost NEVER make this call. Aggressive players will (if the situation is right)

Aggression can be shown when calling, or raising (but mainly raising).

[irishpkr]

Originally Posted by Buildmo a 25% chance exists while you wait for the river... what do you do if you hold the nuts draw? the guy in front of you just went all in (avg.stack), but this will surely put you out if you don't hit the flush. is he bluffing?

Really this question in isolation is just literally, unanswerable in its current form, I hope this isnt your superduper new method for analysing hands lol.

Cash game: call if I'm getting the odds, duh
Tourney: fold if its really marginal if I have a largish M
call even if its marginal if I'm running short

[BUILDMO]

this has nothing to do with 'my method' for analyzing hands or 'my method' in general.
it is more about the other persons method of forcing others off draws and suckouts.
(were you referring to a previous post of mine in another topic area)

And I realize that particulars weren't indicated as posed in the above post, it was just a general poker question.
Sometimes thinking too much about pot odds when the chance of going out is there puts us all to the test.

I've played in a large touney where a called 'all in' help me win that tourney. I was the one who sucked out the flush.

Today, I am 50/50 on making that call. Like most think, it depends on the situation.

[frob23]

Originally Posted by Wyte22 Like I said, it depends on the situation but I'd rather call and lose with that late in the tourney than to be blinded out slowly. one of the quotes from HoH that really hit home with me was "There is hidden value in moving in sooner rather than later" Which is if you move in and double your M from 5 to 10 that is good But if you wait and double your M from 1.5 to 3, your still in the red zone and you need to constantly be pushing the issue. Stack sizes are a major consideration for justifying an all in move here. Also, play styles. I am Aggressive, so 6 to 1, late in tourney, Low M/Q......I am making this call without hesitation because as I've heard before "You can't win big until you are willing to go broke"

HoH also strongly stresses the importance of "moving in" rather than "calling" and strongly reevaluates hand values down once someone has even shown a little interest (let alone has moved in themselves). When you call you have absolutely no fold-equity but if you were the one moving in, you could win that way as well.

If you have a low M... you should have been all-in pre-flop or not been playing this hand in the first place. And you should have been the first person involved in the pot unless you had a super-premium hand.

Yes, there is value in moving in sooner rather than later... but calling an all-in is not moving in.

[iceveins0901]

Originally Posted by Buildmo this has nothing to do with 'my method' for analyzing hands or 'my method' in general. it is more about the other persons method of forcing others off draws and suckouts. (were you referring to a previous post of mine in another topic area) And I realize that particulars weren't indicated as posed in the above post, it was just a general poker question. Sometimes thinking too much about pot odds when the chance of going out is there puts us all to the test. I've played in a large touney where a called 'all in' help me win that tourney. I was the one who sucked out the flush. Today, I am 50/50 on making that call. Like most think, it depends on the situation.

I think that this is exactly what irish was saying, that with such a broad question, the answer is "it depends". Sometimes you could want to call with the nut flush draw, sometimes you wouldnt.