Did I play this wrong?

[megadeff]

Hero is BB...5 left, 4 get satellite token

Should I have folded or just called preflop?

Full Tilt Poker Tier One $6+$0.50 Sit & Go No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t250/t500 Blinds - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: t16176
SB: t5370
Hero (BB): t2374
UTG: t620
CO: t2460

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with A A
2 folds, BTN raises to t1000, 1 fold, Hero raises to t2374 all in, BTN calls t1374

Flop: (t4998) 4 2 5

Turn: (t4998) J

River: (t4998) Q

Final Pot: t4998
BTN shows Jh Qd (two pair, Queens and Jacks)
Hero shows Ad Ac (a pair of Aces)
BTN wins t4998

What do you think?

[HeyKidMove]

Maybe you could fold and hope the short stack goes out, but you have less than 5BB so I would get it in there. But of course I don't play satellites so there might be a better strategy.

[frob23]

The UTG player is going to be all-in very-very soon (2 hands). You have no need to risk everything against a player who can bust you when it doesn't greatly increase your chances of winning. Although it seems insanely nitty here, it's one of the few places folding A-A pre-flop makes any sense at all.

There are strong odds that UTG is going broke very soon. And, even if he manages to double up, he'll still be very short. Besides, one of the other players might make a mistake and get busted. Harrington covers this and goes into more detail about why folding this makes the most sense.

Edit: In this case, with a real short stack at the table, folding every hand if a big stack shows interest makes the most sense.

[liladypokerpro]

I will very rarely go all in or call an all in bet while holding AA. I've got to see some cards before making a tournament jeopardizing decision like that. AA is all too often beaten by lesser hands who catch their cards.

We can't really say whether you played the hand wrong or not. There are a lot of factors that go into making a judgment on something like that. How long had you played with the caller before this hand? Did you give him any reason to doubt the legitimacy of your hand? Had you shown yourself as a tight player, or shown any previous hands which might have given the caller helpful information to use against you? Was the caller a loose/aggressive player? There are a lot of things that could have made him believe he had the best hand, or he could have simply called in order to attempt the draw out. As far as making a large raise with the AA hand, I believe that was correct. However, as I said before, I hate to call an all in bet holding AA...it's a disaster waiting to happen.

[harakiri 22]

in this situation , with so a small stack at the table , u must do a crazy fold .
that sucks but the big stack calling with any 2 , normally .
in a normal sng u played well , but unlucky.
so u make the small stack lucky .
but i think most of us would go all in , inside me .

[Markie141]

I didn't even read the hand play , 5 left 4 get in , fold the preflop all in hands, let short stack bust ,gl

[Fictive]

I never fold aces preflop against only one player. That would be insane. Worst case scenario, you are 81% favorite to win. I like those odds. I realize how a fold could be one choice given that someone is going to get busted in a minute or two, but still... never ever ever fold pocket rockets. That's my game theory, and it has worked quite well.

[frob23]

Originally Posted by Fictive I never fold aces preflop against only one player. That would be insane. Worst case scenario, you are 81% favorite to win. I like those odds. I realize how a fold could be one choice given that someone is going to get busted in a minute or two, but still... never ever ever fold pocket rockets. That's my game theory, and it has worked quite well.

While an interesting theory... it fails at this one point. With perfectly flat payouts (as in the case with the tickets), you have to fold A-A here even if your opponent turns over and shows you his 2-3 offsuit. I am going to shamelessly copy the method Harrington uses in his Volume II: The End Game in an attempt to explain why this is so.

At this point, 4 people get a token so the final percentages have to add up to 400%.

There are 27,000 chips in play this means each chip is worth roughly a 1.48% chance to get a ticket. At the start of the hand, the players have the following odds of getting a ticket.

BTN: 239%
SB: 79%
Hero (BB): 37%
UTG: 9%
CO: 36%

Now, if you call and lose you're a 0% chance to win. And you'll lose about 20% of the time by your own estimates. You'll have a 28% chance of getting a ticket if you fold. But if UTG loses the next hand or folds his BB, and you fold your SB, he will be about a 2% chance to win (from his SB where he is forced to play) and you'll still be a 24% favorite to get a ticket.

Now, what if you won with your AA? You'd increase to a 74% favorite to win a ticket. Certainly not a strong enough favorite to make this move. If it's failing 20% of the time. You're really only increasing your equity (after weighting the times you lose) by 22%. With a player that short... 9%,... to be 2% on the next hand... you're forced to fold here.

Harrington does a much better job of explaining this in detail. It's pages 421-426 and I highly recommend checking it out.

[Markie141]

That's exactly my point , great answer ! , the reason they are playing is to qualify not to "win" , the point of any great preflop hand is to advance you in the game and not put you at risk , there's no value in any risk here since moving up means nothing at all , 5 are left 4 qualify , calling and losing this hand could make him the small stack who bubbles ,very easy fold lol

[liladypokerpro]

Thanks to Frob and Markie for affirming what I was trying to say regarding the AA fold.

[megadeff]

Thanks for all the replies... Looking back on the hand makes me more and more realize that I have to fold there. As many of you said, utg is pretty much all-in next hand so there's no need to risk my tourney life there.

Thanks again for your helpfulness.

[Huskers314]

I won't argue whether or not a fold is in your best interest due to the structure of the tournament, as it very well may have been. But in general, I know if I push with aces and get called by QJo, I do a little dance and give a mighty fist pump. You got unlucky, bro. That's it. Results oriented thinking is poker's most dangerous habit.

Ask yourself this.....Did you ever once consider laying down AA before you got drawn out on? In the future, if you really want people's honest opinions I'd suggest not posting results to cloud our thinking. When we know you lost, it's easy to say fold those rockets!

Just my opinion. Sorry you got so unlucky.

[Fictive]

Originally Posted by frob23 While an interesting theory... it fails at this one point. With perfectly flat payouts (as in the case with the tickets), you have to fold A-A here even if your opponent turns over and shows you his 2-3 offsuit. I am going to shamelessly copy the method Harrington uses in his Volume II: The End Game in an attempt to explain why this is so. At this point, 4 people get a token so the final percentages have to add up to 400%. There are 27,000 chips in play this means each chip is worth roughly a 1.48% chance to get a ticket. At the start of the hand, the players have the following odds of getting a ticket. BTN: 239% SB: 79% Hero (BB): 37% UTG: 9% CO: 36% Now, if you call and lose you're a 0% chance to win. And you'll lose about 20% of the time by your own estimates. You'll have a 28% chance of getting a ticket if you fold. But if UTG loses the next hand or folds his BB, and you fold your SB, he will be about a 2% chance to win (from his SB where he is forced to play) and you'll still be a 24% favorite to get a ticket. Now, what if you won with your AA? You'd increase to a 74% favorite to win a ticket. Certainly not a strong enough favorite to make this move. If it's failing 20% of the time. You're really only increasing your equity (after weighting the times you lose) by 22%. With a player that short... 9%,... to be 2% on the next hand... you're forced to fold here. Harrington does a much better job of explaining this in detail. It's pages 421-426 and I highly recommend checking it out.

That is a very valid point. One that I definetely hadn't even thought about. Ah, possibly just one more reason why I do pretty good in cash games but suck at tournaments.

[CoolHandDave]

i think you just fold pre-flop

No need to play with a flat payout structure, not against a player who can put you out on the bubble, when the shorty has 600 chips vs your 2000 why even risk it?

Fold to the money/token

[MADDAMGAZZEL]

in that situation you have to think about who you are really playing against. It is you vs. UTG. With him being so short, you have to fold, no pots should be played against the big stack bully.

[twgg8]

yes you did

[TheyNeverLearn]

ya i dont think its worth trading places with the low stack in this case its better just let him go out just my thought

[rpson]

As pretty much everyone else stated, a fold seems correct here. You were pretty unlucky though so don't be too hard on yourself.

[liladypokerpro]

Agreed... In this case it's the best option for your own benefit and peace of mind.

[rakmupagain]

You shouldnt post the hand results if you want good answers, as huskers stated, as the responses would be much different. All of these geniuses say the would fold aa there but I would bet a rather large stake that when confronted with that same situation, everybody would push all in or call with their aa since it was a HU situation.
Important info that you left out, was that you were already recieving a payout, for the bubble finish, I'm assuming the format is the same that ive seen on fulltilt, with the bubble player getting about 2/3 the token value. Which completely reverses some of the theory spewed to you above.
Now let's say your playing in a promotional type mtt like one i played in today, (got knocked out 3rd hand after flopping open ended royal flush draw and gettin money all in 3 way, haha, happy for the chance actually). anyway, top 3 players get 10k entry to wsop main event. the other 397 or so players nada, now if you were in the exact same situation as above with 4 players left, then when the payout goes from 0 to 10k for that one spot, you defenitely fold every hand.

What surely would happen after you folded your aa tho is that short stack would double up 3 times and force you to gamble with your 33 in the sb. the bb calls you with 52o and spikes a 5. Then you would need much more than a post on rakeback to recover. THen you could regret folding your AA preflop for the rest of your poker life.
sleep easy bud, if you got that token u would got knocked out holding aa on first hand when u ended up using it in a tourney, anyway, always the optomist.