Hand Probabilities

[liladypokerpro]

Okay...since some people were saying there weren't enough useful posts lately, I figured I'd add this to help some people out who may need this information.

Hand Probabilities

The following are pre-flop probabilities for being dealt specific premium hands:

• AA: 220 to 1
• KK, QQ, JJ: 72.7 to 1
• TT, 99, 88, 77, 66: 43.2 to 1
• 55, 44, 33, 22: 54.3 to 1
• AKs: 331 to 1
• AKo: 110 to 1
• AQs or AJs: 165 to 1
• AQo or AJo: 54.3 to 1
• KQs: 331 to 1
• KQo: 110 to 1
• AXs: 35.8 to 1
• AXo: 11.3 to 1

If you have ever wondered what your odds are of holding AK, then flopping either an AAK or KKA, the answer is 1,088 to 1!!!

The following are your probabilities for flopping specific hands:

• Four of a Kind: 407 to 1
• Full House: 136 to 1
• Set: 8.3 to 1
• Flush (with 2 suited cards): 118 to 1
• Flush draw: 8.1 to 1
• Flush draw (with 2 unsuited cards): 88 to 1

Knowing your Pot Odds and the above Hand Probabilities will help you to maintain a healthy bankroll and be an overall profitable player.

Some of the above information is based on readings from "The Everything Poker Book."

[stoffmakers]

how does this make any sense??? how are your odds different for people dealt a different pocket pair. you have the same odds of being dealt aces as 2s.

[liladypokerpro]

If you'll notice, at the bottom of the thread it states that the information was based on readings from a poker book...therefore, I cannot answer your question as I was not the one who wrote the book

[IFixlexus]

I think what is meant is EITHER 55,44,33, or 22 is 54:1. Not each one being dealt that.

[stoffmakers]

ya i get that now. but its pretty dumb to say 22-55 when its just any 5 pocket pairs.

[iceveins0901]

So,

AA, JJ, 77, 22: 54.3 to 1?

i guess technically yes, but the information is misleading and not too useful.


any Pocket Pair 220 : 1

I think you need to delete the grouped pairs from your useful post, that is very bad and meaningless info.

[iceveins0901]

Originally Posted by iceveins0901 So, AA, JJ, 77, 22: 54.3 to 1? i guess technically yes, but the information is misleading and not too useful. any Party Poker 220 : 1 I think you need to delete the grouped pairs from your useful post, that is very bad and meaningless info.

..... Did I just write Party Poker instead of Pocket Pair? That is strange, i saw some bowling show yesterday at lunch sponsored by party poker, that must have been why i wrote it.....

[PointerJake]

Interesting, thanks for the post. I didnt realize that the probability of getting a set is 8 to 1. Seems low to me. But that may explain why I see so many of them. lol

[frob23]

Originally Posted by iceveins0901 So, AA, JJ, 77, 22: 54.3 to 1? i guess technically yes, but the information is misleading and not too useful. any Pocket Pair 220 : 1 I think you need to delete the grouped pairs from your useful post, that is very bad and meaningless info.

I do not agree that it is very bad (it's correct) or meaningless info. I think it breaks it down nicely into:

AA
Top Pairs
Medium Pairs
Small Pairs

And since you play those hands in a different manner (but a similar manner for each of the hands in their respective groupings) it is a logical and natural grouping. To say that you will have a small pair about once every 55 hands is not meaningless or bad information.

There is certainly some debate as to where the boundaries actually are (I put 66 in the small pair grouping) but since the numbers are staggered you can figure what the odds are if you move a hand from one group to another. For example. if we move the 6s like I would... The small pairs are 43.2-1 and the medium pairs become 54.3-1.

You can easily adjust as you see the need.

[iceveins0901]

well I understand how it is grouped, but when is that going to prove useful? Gonna sound smart around the table? Would we just use these groupings to prove we are running bad or have worse luck? I see no point in knowing the odds of hitting a group of pairs. The set mining is useful on another post, considering they are debating because your losses count against your odds, which is technically correct but only upto 8 to 1.

[frob23]

Why is knowing the odds of one pair any use? Obviously the odds of getting a pair of Ks don't matter if you already have a pair of Ks in front of you. So why does anyone care?

There are reasons that knowing these odds can help you and they don't involve looking smart at the table or proving that you're running bad. When you know how likely a range of pairs is, you can use that knowledge to react to the actions of another player and use that knowledge to help figure out the likelihood of a certain set of hands in the range of hands they might be playing. Knowing how likely it is that a player is holding a low or medium pocket pair can help determine what the best play is.

Knowing how often you can expect a certain set of hands has other benefits as well... including those which can help you be patient and wait since you know you'll start with a pocket pair 1 out of every 17 hands... on average. It helps you determine how much you can afford to commit to such hands and if you should let them go. Just because you can't see a use for the numbers, that does not mean they aren't useful.

When I raise with JJ, in a tournament situation for example, and get reraised all-in... a basic understanding of the odds in the OP help me decide how to react to that. I admit that I use a modified method of figuring my odds in these cases (18 ways to hold a higher pair, 1 way to be tied, 54 ways to hold a lower pair, 48 ways to hold two over-cards, etc.) but the logic is the same.