Low Stakes Limit Hold'em, Massively Multiway Pot with 99

[frob23]

I know most of you aren't limit players. But for those who are... what do you think of the following and comments on the hand in general.

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with , . UTG posts a blind of $0.05.
UTG (poster) checks, Hero calls, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (8 SB) , , (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Button checks.

Turn: (4 BB) (8 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, Hero raises

Okay, here are my thoughts when I made this move. We have an 8-way flop and missed our set, which is not good for 99. At the same time, the board is not horribly threatening. It checks all the way around on the flop and a harmless little 4 comes off, and then it checks around again until it gets to MP3. MP3 bets and it folds back around to me.

At this point, everyone has had two chances to act on their hands and only one person [MP3] has shown any interest in this pot. The two people that are most likely to have a 5 (the blinds) have folded. It comes back to me and the pot is 5xBB. And frankly, I don't believe my 9s are valueless here. I know if I call here, I am calling almost every river. So I am committing 2xBB. But I think, if I raise here, representing a 5 or 44... I might get a Q with a bad kicker to fold. And I know, for sure, if I am reraised, that my 9s are no good and I can fold them and lose the same 2xBB I was going to lose anyway.

Unless MP3 has a very strong hand, they have to have some concern about what I might have. This was an 8 way hand... surely, MP3 might think, it's possible that I might have a 5. At a normal table, I would be concerned about representing a 5 from UTG+1... but I think it's not likely that MP3 will ask herself what hands I could hold in this spot that have a 5 in them. I think they will assume the most obvious thing, that I flopped trips, slowplayed it (everyone loves to slowplay trips at these levels) or tried for a flop check-raise and missed and now am trying to get value from it here.

I think I have a strong chance of winning this pot by raising here. If I get called, I plan on firing another shot on the river (if it's not a Q or a 4) and hope to pick it up right there. If I get raised on the river... that's a point where I'll also have to probably fold.

So... in summary:
I think my 99 might be good here.
If I call, I will have to call the river as well.
I think a raise might win the pot right here for the same cost as calling down.
I also think a raise might give me a chance to win the pot on the river with the risk of losing 1xBB more than just calling it down.

What do you think? Is this a good line to take? Do you think my plan on the river, if called, is the best way to handle it or what would you do? Should I just be folding these and accepting that as the most profitable (least expensive) way to play this hand at this point.

Also note, do not assume that I won or lost this hand. I have tried to make it as ambiguous as possible. What I want to know is, if I faced this spot 100 times, what is the most profitable way to play this?

[thrash1294]

easy fold after flop. NO set NO BET

[XDRAGON]

Personally i'd have just let it go. With that many players in the hand i would have put the player who bet on at least a queen, players dont generally try to bluff half a dozen opponents, especially in limit. In limit the best way to find out where you are in a hand is by betting and raising on the flop where the bets are cheaper. Once you get to the turn you should already have a good idea if your ahead or behind and if your going to fold or play it to the river. At such low stakes as this players who put any bets in on the turn will generally goto a showdown even if they think their beat so i dont see much value in rasing. This is my overall long term view of the situation, there's always going to be exceptions. At these stakes players often do things which make no sense but i still believe in the long run your best off just folding.

[Wyte22]

since this is 5 cent/10 cent limit. You'll be getting called down with all sorts of crazy hands. MP3 either has Q with weak kicker, 4 with a strong kicker or slow playing 5, that is it. More than likely, your drawing to a 9 here. You won't get anyone to fold with a 5 cent raise!

[frob23]

I have a reputation as a nit. Sometimes, I am even known as a super-duper mega nit. But I think folding here loses too much value. This pot is large and I am getting about 2-1 to call it down. And, while I am probably not a favorite to win, I am beating some hands that would bet here. I think calling it down would be slightly -EV, since hands like Q-2 will beat me.

Also, I assume that it's possible and maybe even likely my opponent has a Q. That is why I don't like calling down. But at the same time, it could be A-4, K-4s (these games are like that), 3-3, 6-6, 7-7, 8-8, 6-7, or something along those lines. It could also be TT or JJ... both of which are unlikely to be able to call a raise and a bet on the river. Fewer Qs will fold (top pair is a monster) but we might fold some like Q-6, Q-3, Q-2.

Note: After I posted this, I thought a lot about the math behind it and tried to find the breakeven point for this move. I also posted it on another forum (of dedicated limit players)... where the one response I have so far says I played it wrong -- I should have raised pre-flop and been betting all the way... but the c/r on the turn was good considering how badly I'd played already.

Anyway, here is my thought. Even running this as a complete bluff and ignoring the hands we beat...

Folding EV: 0 Big Bets [This is the default... we lose no more money on this hand.]
Raising EV: +0.275

The rest gets complicated but here is how I figured the raising EV.

If I raise and they fold 20% of the time, I gain 5BB ( .2*5 = 1BB net)
If I raise and they raise 20% of the time, I lose 2BB ( .2*-2 = -0.4BB net)
If I raise and they call 60% of the time:
If I bet the river and they fold 20% of the time, I gain 6BB ( .6*.2*6 = .72BB net)
If I bet the river and they call or raise 80% of the time, I lose 3BB ( .6*.8*-3 = -1.44BB net)

So with this overly pessimistic view, I lose 0.12BB by making the play. This was the worst scenario I could think of. A more reasonable one, giving the play of the hand would be.

If I raise and they fold 20% of the time, I gain 5BB ( .2*5 = 1BB net)
If I raise and they raise 10% of the time, I lose 2BB ( .1*-2 = -0.2BB net)
If I raise and they call 70% of the time:
If I bet the river and they fold 25% of the time, I gain 6BB ( .7*.25*6 = 1.05BB net)
If I bet the river and they call or raise 75% of the time, I lose 3BB ( .7*.75*-3 = -1.575BB net)

For an expectation of +0.275BB. And I still think this is fairly pessimistic as it assumes I never win on the river when called. I could win on the river and almost certainly will win 5% of the time when I hit a 9 (although I only get called 75% of the time in this scenario). We all know there are hands I could be beating that with call/call this down. And I also know there are hands that are beating me that will fold or call/fold here. My raise shows a LOT of strength considering that I should expect this player to gave something... it looks like I want them to have something.

I only need to win about 35% of the time here to show a profit. And I think I run into the nuts a lot less often than that. Even as a pure bluff, which is what I calculated this as, it has value. When we factor in the showdown value of 99 here as well as the chance of a river 9, the equity of this hand has to increase even more.

The only real question is if the percentages are reasonable. I tried to be fairly pessimistic about the folding rate but not completely irrational (oh they're never folding). If you have better suggestions for the percentages... I'd love to see them and your basis for selecting them... as a sanity check of my numbers.

[XDRAGON]

I think you win there about 10% of the time and i maintain you will loose money long term with this play. In low stakes limit hold'em players dont fold too much and they play any garbage hand they like in anyway they wish. You make a profit in these games by being very tight aggressive, wait till you have a very strong hand and bet the crap out of it. Fancy plays have no place in micro stakes games, just play ABC poker and save the deeper stuff for the higher stakes.

[frob23]

Originally Posted by XDRAGON I think you win there about 10% of the time and i maintain you will loose money long term with this play. In low stakes limit hold'em players dont fold too much and they play any garbage hand they like in anyway they wish. You make a profit in these games by being very tight aggressive, wait till you have a very strong hand and bet the crap out of it. Fancy plays have no place in micro stakes games, just play ABC poker and save the deeper stuff for the higher stakes.

What hands am I winning against the 10% of the time you have me winning?

And, as you say, they don't fold enough... and how much of a percentage of the hands do they call with include the hands I beat?

[Huskers314]

In a standard game, I don't think MP3 checks the flop in late position with a Q. Then again, in a standard game, 8 players aren't seeing the flop. If this weren't penny poker, I think I like your line, although the aggressive (arguably better) play would be to raise the flop. I think you are ahead here way more often than people are giving you credit for. People just generally don't slowplay from LP in limit poker. It's not profitable. If you're ahead you pound bets until someone makes you stop.....if you like money that is. A4 is my guess, with the possibility of a pocket pair like 6s, 7s, 8s, or 10s. I look forward to knowing the result of the hand when the discussion dies.

[XDRAGON]

Well 5% of the time you hit a 9 on the river and id say the other 5% of the time your ahead AND all your opponents miss any possible outs to beat you like an A, K, J, T or any other card which would give them the winning hand. Im not saying this is anywhere near perfect but it's my opinion. But i do belive the way you played the hand has made it very hard to put any player on a hand, you have made no bets or raises pre flop or on the flop to ask any questions.

[frob23]

Originally Posted by Huskers314 In a standard game, I don't think MP3 checks the flop in late position with a Q. Then again, in a standard game, 8 players aren't seeing the flop. If this weren't penny poker, I think I like your line, although the aggressive (arguably better) play would be to raise the flop. I think you are ahead here way more often than people are giving you credit for. People just generally don't slowplay from LP in limit poker. It's not profitable. If you're ahead you pound bets until someone makes you stop.....if you like money that is. A4 is my guess, with the possibility of a pocket pair like 6s, 7s, 8s, or 10s. I look forward to knowing the result of the hand when the discussion dies.

Your line is very similar to what I was told in a limit forum. They said, "Raise this pre, bet the flop, and keep betting until someone slows you down."

I also have my doubts about the Q. It's possible... with a really bad kicker... but I can't see the person checking the flop with so many people in. I will say, for the sake of argument, it's more likely than certain other hands. Also, can I dismiss a very poorly played AK here? One that should have raised pre-flop, didn't, and it trying to pick the pot up on the turn.

As for reads, on MP3 in particular, this player has shown the ability to lay down hands when they are convinced they're beat. I have seen very few showdowns from this player (I think two before this hand) and both times the hand was fairly strong. At the same time, I have seen this player bet at pots and let it go. Those pots had more people and more action than I could inspire but this isn't a calling station here.

[PointerJake]

If you planned on going all the way with it, I would have bet the flop to see where you were. Then if you had to get away from it you could have. Bet after everyone checked the flop you automatically thought you were good. If you bet the flop and get a quick call the lightbulbs start going off that maybe you are beat.

[liladypokerpro]

Considering it's limit, I don't think I could put the guy on a Q either, frob. I'd have to play it out. I mean in NL sure, probably could get away from it, but the only card here I could view as a potential threat would be a 5 because people like playing Ax in limit. Just really can't factor the Q in there as-played. It's hard to say tho since I was not in your seat.

[frob23]

SPOILER ALERT

As played, I have no idea what MP3 had. I raised the turn. MP3 called that bet. I bet into MP3 on the river and they folded. I collected the pot without a fight.

Not that this changes anything. The wrong play can work sometimes but would be -EV in the long run. But I do not believe this was the wrong move. With this board, 99 has too much value to fold and reraising gives greater EV than just calling down, IMNSHO.

[powrdragn]

I honestly, wouldn't be surprised if MP3 just had a 4.

And truth be told, I would have raised preflop. Narrow the field a bit.

Otherwise, I don't really have a problem with the way you played the hand.

[Wyte22]

Seriously, a raise at 5cent/10cent level really thins the field? I bet if he raised, he'd just be collecting a bigger pot, cuz everyone would follow like happy little sheep going to the slaughter!