Nut flush draw against check-raise on the flop

[jDonk]

Hi. This is my first post here. I've started playing at Full Tilt recently, hoping to beat the cash games there eventually. Here's a hand I played today. I'm wondering what the best action would be once I get check-raised on the flop, and are there anything you'd do differently up to that point?

I have not started using Pokertracker yet. I might have played 30 or so hands against villian. He seemed like he played quite loose preflop, especially from the blinds. My first impression was that he wasn't very aggressive, so I didn't think the check-raise was a pure bluff or even a weak hand. I suppose it's impossible to say without more information on villian though. I had been playing a little aggressively preflop at this table, since it seemed to be pretty tight.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($7.45)
CO ($5)
Button ($25)
SB (Villian) ($23.95)
BB ($29.80)
UTG ($5)
Hero ($22.25)
MP1 ($18.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, Q.
1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, SB (Villian) calls $0.90, 1 fold.

Flop: ($2.25) K, 9, 7 (3 players)
Villian checks, Hero bets $1.75, Villian raises to $6.5 Hero???

I ran my hands against a couple of other hands on twodimes. It seems like I have ca. 45 % equity against top pair, good kicker, 37 % against AK, 34 % against two pair, 26 % against a set and 66 % against T8 of spades. So how would you play this? Is it too tight to just fold here? What range is it likely that villian has here?

[iceveins0901]

Well, I could be wrong, but i would figure that since you have are getting 4.75 to 10.5 pot odds, and even if you only have the immediate 9 outs of the flush draw, you have a big enough hand to call.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 1,070,190 games 0.047 secs 22,770,000 games/sec Board: Ks 7s 9c Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 70.058% 69.63% 00.42% 745221 4533.50 { AsQs } Hand 1: 29.942% 29.52% 00.42% 315902 4533.50 { random }

So, not diving into any reads you have on this player, the hand looks like this. Against a random hand, you are 70% to win.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 130,680 games 0.005 secs 26,136,000 games/sec Board: Ks 7s 9c Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 43.025% 43.02% 00.00% 56225 0.00 { AsQs } Hand 1: 56.975% 56.98% 00.00% 74455 0.00 { AKs, K2s+, AKo, K2o+ }

The second example, if he has any king, which is likely, 2 pair included but not KKK, you are still getting odds to call here.

[edit] I put 99 and 77 into his range also and it only changed 1% favoring him more.

[st_ever]

Assuming no reads. He's called from the small blind so for me this is a speculative range including suited connectors, K10+, Any suited A, Pairs from 77, A10o+

On the flop he has check raised larger than 3x. Fro my experience this is one of two things.

1) A monster scared of the flush draw. AK, AA, KK or trips (cant remember what the board was)

2) Complete bluff.

So again assuming no reads i would fold. Take a norte of this hand and watch this player closely.

[Latrocinium]

Actually where he leaves it. He's getting a little less than 2 to 1. I think st_ever put it right when he said

1) A monster scared of the flush draw. AK, AA, KK or trips (cant remember what the board was)

I know continuation bets are big, and so are semi-bluffs, but he called a big raise preflop.
I'm leaning towards the AK. I think with AA, KK, QQ he would have reraised you. Unless he's a slow player.
So in this instance I would have probably checked. Considering I have position, and hope to catch my card.
If not, then I'd think about the semi-bluff, or once again like st_ever said

So again assuming no reads i would fold. Take a norte of this hand and watch this player closely.

Although I'm not sure what a norte is. I'd probably just take some notes

jk

[Rhythms]

I think his range is closer to 79, 77 99 K9 K7 KK or maybe a straight flush draw... I don't think he'd check raise with Kx or AK... that would be pretty marginal.

[liladypokerpro]

Originally Posted by Rhythms I think his range is closer to 79, 77 99 K9 K7 KK or maybe a straight flush draw... I don't think he'd check raise with Kx or AK... that would be pretty marginal.

I don't know......being that this occurred on Full Tilt, there's no telling what the guy had LOL

[Huskers314]

Originally Posted by Rhythms I think his range is closer to 79, 77 99 K9 K7 KK or maybe a straight flush draw... I don't think he'd check raise with Kx or AK... that would be pretty marginal.

Really? I think I'd check-raise with any king I could have called a preflop raise with. A player far more successful than me once told me, "If you're not liberally check-raising from the blinds, you might as well be giving away money." I've found it to be a successful weapon against opponents who open raise and continuation bet nearly every flop.

That being said - To the OP, I think you pretty much know you are behind if you call, possibly dead to a spade or runner runner Q if he does have big slick. If you call the additional $4.75 here, you will undoubtedly face another large bet on the turn if your draw bricks. Are you prepared to call again to see the river? I'm not saying I would definitely fold, but these are things to consider in NLHE.

So.....what'd you do? Since you pretty much justified the reasoning for a call, I'm guessing you did. Did you hit on the turn? Did you see the river? What did he table?

[jDonk]

I've been thinking a little about what Latro wrote, and I think I maybe c-bet a little more often than I should. I might consider checking next time if a c-bet will put me in these kinds of marginal situations.

I thought that I could not really call with my hand, so I moved all-in. I was hoping that some of his range would be air, so I could make him fold by pushing. The other guy called with 97. I didn't get a spade and lost the pot. I don't know if a push is all right here. If he has a hand (top pair or better), I suppose there isn't a lot of fold equity.

Actually I'm kinda tired right now, but maybe a call is better than a push on the flop? I just think that calling puts me in an akward situation since I might have to call again on the turn, and he might possibly (?) get away from a decent hand if the flush comes on the turn. The good thing (if my plan is to commit myself with the draw) is that I give him the opportunity to put more money into the pot on a bluff, and when I think about it I suppose that he might decide check on the turn and give me a free card. So maybe calling is better than pushing after all