nut str8 - can I find a fold here on the turn

[RiverstarsVictim]

Originally Posted by phaul I was also just responding to OP's "reads". I have no idea how you're so certain that UTG2 has a Q or how OP is so sure BB has a set (although I agree it can make sense). This is 10NL! UTG2 can be doing shit like raising his 2pr "to see where he is". .

I guess I could've put more explanation into my OP and for that I apologise, I'm an amateur when it comes to these type of threads.

I had been on this table for over an hour which admittedly, in the grand scheme of things isnt very long but I felt I had seen enough from BB to find his check on the flop suspicious, it was a 1st. His turn bet was too small compared to his previous bets in earlier hands which told me he didn't have the straight.

As for UTG2, I've been on the same table with him several times. I'm confident if he only has a draw here he flat calls, I've not seen him semi bluff and only ever seen him raising with made hands. If he had 2 pair I'm sure he would've bet the flop.

I dont believe either player is your average NL10 donk pissing about, more like steady abc players. Then again maybe I'm the donk to blind to notice

[phaul]

"If we assume the BB is at all competent... he's not raising JJ or TT in this spot and trying to play one of those pairs out of position in a three way raised pot."

Lol what, if you're BB with TT you don't raise pre after 2 people limp?


"If he had 2 pair I'm sure he would've bet the flop."

The turn could've given him 2pr eg KT.


FWIW I posted this on another forum where a very good 200NL reg said he would fold the turn. However, I've done the maths (cba to write it up again) and if we shove and UTG2 has a Q and calls and BB has a set and folds our EV is +$1 (treating a fold as neutral EV). So def shove >>> fold.

I really don't like a call as it makes the river very tricky. What if the flush hits? I take your point about the A or K killing his range but I think you have to be near 100% confident in your reads to call here and have to know exactly what you're doing on any river. I can't see the EV advantages of calling being that great unless you're a soulreader, in which case why ask us. So I shove.

[phaul]

Actually even if you call and play the hand perfectly, if say UTG2 has a Q and BB has a set, then you're only +$1 EV. So same as a shove. But shove is a lot simpler, less room for mistakes. It's really difficult to play it perfectly if you call.

So shove imo.

[frob23]

Originally Posted by phaul Actually even if you call and play the hand perfectly, if say UTG2 has a Q and BB has a set, then you're only +$1 EV. So same as a shove. But shove is a lot simpler, less room for mistakes. It's really difficult to play it perfectly if you call. So shove imo.

Is this assuming the BB calls or folds to the shove? I don't see him calling here with a set... pretty much ever.

[phaul]

It assumes he folds. See the post above.

[frob23]

Man, we're going to have to agree to disagree here because I'm just not raising in this spot. Maybe at $200NL it might make sense to fold or to play it differently... but at $10NL... I'm keeping the fish in and trying to get more. As for if the flush comes... it would depend on the action. In some cases, we're just paying off a value bet... but we're probably not calling off our stack here.

If it's $2-$3 on the river when that flush card comes... we might end up paying it off. If it's a reasonable bet... and not a small bet... we have a little more thinking to do. I can accept the possibility of making an error on the river here if I believe the cost of that error is likely to be small enough that it won't bother me. I'd rather make a mistake that costs me some a few bets than I would make a mistake that could cost me my stack.

Edit: That said... I am playing for stacks on this turn if the BB shoves and the UTG+1 player calls. I would love to play for stacks here if I could be sure to get both of them in. But I don't want to play for stacks against just one person who probably has me tied and might be on a freeroll.

[phaul]

Shoving cannot be a mistake! He is hardly ever freerolling (like 8% of the time max). Against another Q you're like 49.2% equity! U profit cos of the dead money.

As I said at the start, u cannot worry about somone freerolling you, it affects you soooooooo little.

By calling you give BB 1.5/8.7, which is correct pot odds = good for him = bad for you. I rounded the figures, calling and playing perfectly is actually slightly worse than just shoving. Regardless of what your opponents do, shoving is the best option.

Oh and pleeeeeeeease don't fold at any stakes, that is def the worst option.

[RiverstarsVictim]

Seems this thread has run its course so here's what happened.

I ended up flat calling. River came Ace , BB leads out for $5, UTG2 flat calls, despite my previous reads I called anyway ...BB flips over Ace Ace for quads

My 1st reaction was to kick myself for the flat call, it just felt horrible and then to pay another $5 because I felt "I cant fold here" just added salt to the wound. Even if BB hadn't improved it's unlikely we would've gotten any more out of him so this makes calling sound even worse which leaves shove or fold.

Against 2 unknowns I'm happy shoving everytime but against 2 players where I felt my reads were strong enough to know I'm at best splitting this pot I still think I can find a fold as going HU Vs possible freeroll FD just to win 17c + my initial 50c stake just doesnt sound appealing to me.

Maybe the question should be how often does a reasonably solid player (BB) call a shove on the turn here ?. I did state in my opening post I didnt think he would fold to a shove but that was more based on knowing his cards so rather misleading I'm afraid and I regret typing that.