nut str8 - can I find a fold here on the turn

[RiverstarsVictim]

For some reason I cant find the actual hand history so actual cards and stack sizes aren't exact but the situation is the same.

NL 05/10c

Approx stack sizes for relevant players

UTG2 $10
Hero $12
BB $16

SB posts $0.05
BB posts $0.10

Hole cards dealt to hero J Q

1 fold, UTG2 calls $0.10, 2 folds, hero calls $0.10, 3 folds, BB raises $0.50, UTG calls $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Flop (total pot $1.55)

10 Ace J

BB checks, UTG2 checks, Hero checks.

My reason for checking was I fully expected BB to lead out here so his check convinced me he flopped a monster so much better to take the free card

Turn (total pot $1.55)

K

BB bets $0.90, UTG2 raises $2.40, Hero

I dont believe I will make BB lay down here if I shove and it's clear the most I can hope for is a split pot. I also have to consider possible flush draw. I only have $0.50 invested so far, can I give up this hand here or is that just too weak?

[gamer4life27]

With a flush draw out there, and 4 cards to a gut shot straight, the most you can do is shove and hope someone else with the same straight calls. But remember, this is low limits, and a cash game, so if they do have a flush draw, they might call. So do what you can and shove and hope for the best.

If you are thinking of giving up the nut straight to a draw, then don't play poker. THEY are gambling, not you. THEY need to catch cards if they are on a draw, not you. Why lay down the best possible hand right now in fears they are going to gamble with you on a draw?

[RiverstarsVictim]

Originally Posted by gamer4life27 With a flush draw out there, and 4 cards to a gut shot straight, the most you can do is shove and hope someone else with the same straight calls. But remember, this is low limits, and a cash game, so if they do have a flush draw, they might call. So do what you can and shove and hope for the best. If you are thinking of giving up the nut straight to a draw, then don't play poker. THEY are gambling, not you. THEY need to catch cards if they are on a draw, not you. Why lay down the best possible hand right now in fears they are going to gamble with you on a draw?

After the flop I already had BB on a monster, a possible set. His turn bet looked more like a blocking bet and UTG2's raise told me I'm at best splitting the pot. Pushing here might see BB fold in which case I'm splitting his $1.40 investment, take out rake of 53c and I'm left with very little winnings in a split pot. If he calls however I'm not only concerned about a flush draw but also a boat draw. I'm still not convinced I cant fold here.

[frob23]

I am NEVER folding here, not with these stacks at least. I am praying he has KK or AA and is willing to go broke with it. If we split, so it goes but I'm not folding the nuts here. If he has Qxd, that sucks but it's not going to worry me enough to let this go.

Basically, if he's on a draw... I am happy for everything but the made-straight and the flush draw. Every other draw I am happy to be against and every other Qx isn't the death of me (besides, it's really unlikely he has Qxd here).

Folding here is super-nitty and shouldn't be done unless you're playing with so much money that it would hurt you to lose -- and you are playing above your head if that is the case.

Edit: I am calling here... not raising... in the hopes that the BB comes along.

[HeyKidMove]

Don't ever fold the nuts here unless you have a solid read that he also has the straight with the flush draw and is freerolling you.

[RiverstarsVictim]

Originally Posted by frob23 Edit: I am calling here... not raising... in the hopes that the BB comes along.

Interesting. If my concerns about draws are correct here I need to avoid no fewer than 17 cards on the river and that's not including the remaining Q's where we're all beat by the rake.

[frob23]

Originally Posted by RiverstarsVictim Interesting. If my concerns about draws are correct here I need to avoid no fewer than 17 cards on the river and that's not including the remaining Q's where we're all beat by the rake.

That depends on what draws he has. The BB can't have both a draw to a boat AND a draw to the flush. If the BB has the draw to a boat... and the UTG+1 player has a draw to the flush... that is still not horrible. Well over half the time they are both going to miss and you are getting 2-1 on your money. If we assume that the UTG+1 player has a Q (but probably not a flush draw)... we want the BB in to make more money off the chop.

It would be a very rare spot here to really have all 17 cards to avoid. You are probably only facing someone with half as many outs are you think here.

A Q would be a bad card but there are only 3 left in the deck (that we don't know about) and for all the times it doesn't come, we are going to make more having the BB in than we are going to lose to rake the few times it does come.

[gorden71]

I have to agree with frob, you need to keep this guy around and you definately cannot fold. There is a very good chance they are both on a draw a split is better than a loss.

[phaul]

Please God raise this up. He really does hardly ever have Qxhh and even if BB has it every single time, calling is like -$0.03 EV (if you always fold when he hits the flush). So never ever fold.

But anyway, you can basically ignore this situation as it happens sooooo rarely. My initial instinct was to make it like $7 or so, but this is bad cos it gives BB good pot odds with fat IO. So just shove.

If you think he can draw out on you, calling is terrible. Make him pay for his draws!

[dew12109]

I would never fold this hand... I would definitely be staying in. You can't be scared of just the rake here... chances are, you are going to come out ahead... folding the nuts is inconceivable to me. The third largest pot I was involved in was very similar to this, but I held KQ... I made everyone pay for their draws and walked out with a huge pot for the stakes I was playing when the flush draw couldn't beat my straight. 3 people were on drawing hands, and I made my hand on the flop... it's scary sometimes, but I agree with the first response... if you actually think about folding the nuts because you are scared of a flush draw/someone else might have a straight, you probably shouldn't be playing poker.

There can be debate for this as to whether to straight call or shove, but regardless, folding is the worst choice. If you can't afford to lose to a draw especially with only one card to come, you are playing too high of stakes.

Personally, I'd probably either min-raise or move all in at this point with the nuts.

[Fictive]

Never fold the nuts. To put it simply, you have the current nuts, you are ahead. All you can hope for as a poker player in general is to be able to put as many chips in the middle as possible when you are ahead. Cross your fingers and hope you don't get sucked out on.

[phosphorescence]

you're absolutely nuts if you fold.

also, you say you think the BB flopped a monster, so why do you check? surely you should bet out and hope that he check raises? checking doesn't make sense to me here, unless you're trying to let the UTG catch up. if he's got a monster you're going to get more of his money, and what if the board pairs on the turn? you're going to be wondering if you're drawing dead. or alternatively a scare card for him could come (which it does), and if he's tight enough he may fold.

[RiverstarsVictim]

Originally Posted by phosphorescence you're absolutely nuts if you fold. also, you say you think the BB flopped a monster, so why do you check? surely you should bet out and hope that he check raises? checking doesn't make sense to me here, unless you're trying to let the UTG catch up. if he's got a monster you're going to get more of his money, and what if the board pairs on the turn? you're going to be wondering if you're drawing dead. or alternatively a scare card for him could come (which it does), and if he's tight enough he may fold.

Eh? I never hit straight until the turn, I was behind on the flop, I can't possibly bet on the flop.

[phosphorescence]

Originally Posted by RiverstarsVictim Eh? I never hit straight until the turn, I was behind on the flop, I can't possibly bet on the flop.

oh sorry right you are, i misread it!

[RiverstarsVictim]

First of all thanks for all the replies. Lots of valid responses as always.

Several people are saying I shouldn't be playing if I'm not prepared to put my money in here, if I believe I'm playing for 2 stacks I would totally agree. However, I would argue if I'm going to make reads and then totally ignore them I probably shouldn't be playing anyway.

In this situation I'm not playing for 2 stacks, my read is so strong UTG2 isn't raising with air or lone FD, he's holding a Q and I'm splitting this pot at best. With that knowledge the best I can hope for is a return of $18.05 (mainpot $30 minus rake = $28.50 split with UTG2 = $14.25 + sidepot $4 minus rake = $3.80). So the odds for my $12 investment are now 1:2?. To win this $18.05 I need to avoid the flush and boat draw (17 combined outs) and the 2 remaining Q's which would give a 3 way split. That's some minefield just to make an overall $6.05 profit.

What if BB folds to a push and I'm now HU with UTG2. The pot will be $21.40 minus rake = $20.33 split with UTG2 = $10.17. A 17c profit on my $10 stake and UTG2 could still be holding Qxd, a possible 9 outs to stack me, horrific odds.

Still nobody finding a fold here? I guess there's still a chance my read is bad. Maybe calling now looks better or we're still happy pushing?

[frob23]

Nope, still never folding here. You are very unlikely to have to avoid 17 outs... I think that counting all those as full outs is a big mistake here. And even in the worst case scenario (Qxd and a set)... you're losing like $0.33 by playing for stacks here and that is the worst possible scenario. If the BB has AK and UTG+1 has Qx (offsuit or non-diamonds), you're looking at dodging 4 outs. I'm not running the exact equity on that one but it's sure to show a profit, especially if you keep the BB in. I could run that equity but I don't think it's especially relevant... it's pretty obvious you're making a profit in that case.

Even if we're 100% sure that the UTG+1 player has a Q (which is a reasonable assumption... I'd say 95%+ of the time this will be the case here)... so do we and that means we have some solid equity here. It's only in the most absolute edge cases that we find this being a -EV call. We have to consider the more likely cases as being more important when considering our play here. If we happen to be up against a set and Qxd... well, that is too bad.

This is like holding 9-9, calling an early position raise and folding on a K-9-2 rainbow flop... because you might be up against K-K.

What if BB folds to a push and I'm now HU with UTG2.

You bring up an important point and this is why we never push here. We want the BB to hang around and try to come along and see if the board has paired on the river. If we flat call and he calls... good... if we flat call and he shoves... even better. The last thing we want to do is chase him out of the pot by raising. As it is, he might fold anyway to the original raise... in which case we'd be in a pickle if the river is a diamond (not that it's the end of the world anyway). Basically, the BB is where we expect our profit to come from with this hand... and for that reason we can't afford to chase him out... even if we're almost offering him the right price to try and hit the boat. Shoving here doesn't increase our equity because we have no fold equity, are going to get half the pot at best, and might end up playing for stacks with another player on a freeroll.

In a way, I think we're fearing monsters under the bed here. This is $10NL. I think it's certainly possible that we're up against AK and A-xd (where x is not a Q) in this spot. And we'd have fantastic equity in that spot against 2 players. I'm not saying this happens often but it's certainly as often as we are up against the set and Qxd hands. I've seen a lot of donks reraise a flush draw on boards just like this in $10NL games. I'm not saying it's happening here... but I'd give as much credit to that as the nightmare scenario.

[phaul]

Shove > normal raise >>> call >>>>>>>>>>>> fold

Frob, there is no point keeping BB in the pot if he has odds to chase his draw. Odds to chase draw = good for him = bad for you!

You think BB flopped a monster (which I don't know how you can be soooo sure of). Ok, set of tens, Jacks, Aces or KQ. You beat 3 and split with one!



This is soooo nitty. In Hold'em, do not ever fold the nuts! Especially on the turn.



You're way too worried about people drawing out on you. Look at the very worst cases possible.

3-way against 2 draws, no Q. If someone said pre-hand to you, you can get your money in 24/42 favourite (17 outs and 3 splits) for 3 stacks, would you fold????

2-way against a draw. You don't have to avoid 17 outs, he can't have both a FH draw and a flush draw! You have to avoid at most 9 outs with 3 splits. So at worst 67/88 favourite.

3-way against a draw with 9 outs and a Q with no flush draw is 97/252 or 38.5%, 3-way! So STILL +EV!

2-way against a Q, no draw. Guaranteed split, +EV cos of all the dead money.

1 bad situation; someone has Qxdd and is freerolling. Incredibly unlikely, especially given the preflop action. Hardly ever anything below Q9 plays here, even at 10NL (I don't think). Even then, as Frob said, you're only very slightly -EV (I got bored of crunching numbers).

These are the worst possible situations, and even they give you massive overall equity. I haven't included the slightly differing stack sizes, but you get the gist of the maths. I can't be bothered to do any more cos this is such a clear shove situation!

Plus, this is 10NL. People can just be pissing about. But even if not, ship 110%. This really is a snap-shove, double-fist-pump moment. It's these instances that you play all the other shitty hands for.

[frob23]

Originally Posted by phaul Shove > normal raise >>> call >>>>>>>>>>>> fold Frob, there is no point keeping BB in the pot if he has odds to chase his draw. Odds to chase draw = good for him = bad for you! You think BB flopped a monster (which I don't know how you can be soooo sure of). Ok, set of tens, Jacks, Aces or KQ. You beat 3 and split with one!

This assumes he has a set... which I do not think is the case often enough here to worry about. At this point, I think we're probably 50/50 against a set or AK or some other weaker hand. That is about 7 outs on average to avoid... or 5.43-1 odds that he needs from the pot. He's getting slightly less than that when we call (4.8-1). If he has two pair or worse, he's getting terrible odds to call but we certainly want him to try. If he has the set... yeah we give him the right price... but this is how we might keep him in the hand and maybe we'll get lucky and he'll shove over us.

The reason I disagree with raising is because UTG+1 has changed our expectation on that play. A raise almost ensures that the BB (our likely only source of profit) will fold... meanwhile, we will be sure to get called by UTG+1 or put all-in. When that happens... we're either splitting the pot (which makes for a very tiny profit) or splitting the pot with a player on a freeroll... which will show a net loss. If this was heads up, it's easily the right play to raise here and ensure that the BB has the wrong price. But with the ranges of hands and the action... a raise is almost sure to be -EV here over the long run. There is no way the BB is hanging around with something like AK, AJ, TT, JJ, KK, or anything at all really... once we raise. Only the most daft person is going to call that raise... even if we don't shove because he should know that the UTG+1 player will likely reraise us both all-in anyway.

As it is... the call is the best play I see here... and then keep the pot small on the river if possible. If the river is a non-pair, non-diamond... we're committed to calling an all-in. But if it's a pair... especially an A or K... it's an easy fold and we've saved the majority of our stack. I think a raise commits too much here when we can get away from a bad river and scary action in front of us... let's call and use our position to try and get as much money as we can from the BB without tossing our stack away for, at best, a split pot with a player that's got us tied .

[phaul]

At the start of your post, you say:

Originally Posted by frob23 This assumes he (BB) has a set... which I do not think is the case often enough here to worry about.

But at the end:

Originally Posted by frob23 But if it(the river)'s a pair... especially an A or K... it's an easy fold and we've saved the majority of our stack.

Which is it? Also, why especially an A or a K? Why does is make a difference whether he has quads or a boat? Or do you think he's more likely to have TT/JJ than KK/AA?

I was also just responding to OP's "reads". I have no idea how you're so certain that UTG2 has a Q or how OP is so sure BB has a set (although I agree it can make sense). This is 10NL! UTG2 can be doing shit like raising his 2pr "to see where he is".

You cannot fold this hand. Full stop. If a diamond comes you can't fold cos he "might" have a flush. If the board pairs you can't fold cos he "might" have a boat/quads. If you just call, BB might not have pot odds but he def has implied odds. If he doesn't, you're getting pushed off hands waaaaaaay to easily and are probably constantly getting bluffed obscenely.

You have to call any river. So even if you know they're both quality players, and so know UTG2 has a Q, you still shove turn to avoid giving BB odds with w/e he might have. Actually, if BB is good he has AQ or QQ (can't really see anything else atm) and if UTG2 is good the only hand that makes sense is is QJ (although even then the preflop stuff is a bit fishy). But clearly this is not the case. Tbh not much makes sense in this hand.

Overanalysis (some possibly slightly incorrect) over.

Crib notes. You CANNOT fold this hand. Thus shoving gives you better value cos you have to pay a draw off if it hits.

[frob23]

The OP led me to believe that the BB is a very tight pre-flop raiser (not exactly sure where I picked up this assumption but it's one I have been running with the entire time -- probably because this player thinks they flopped so strong). In that case what range of hands is he raising? QQ+, AK, and AQ are the most likely candidates... especially after two limpers have already entered and when he can see the flop for free. An Ace or a King on the river means his entire range of hands now beats us or ties (in the rarest of cases). It fills up AK where a Jack wouldn't fill up AK. If we assume the BB is at all competent... he's not raising JJ or TT in this spot and trying to play one of those pairs out of position in a three way raised pot.

I think he's possibly sitting on AA, KK, or AK here on the turn... although something crazy could happen. I am not worried about quads here at all. I believe that an Ace or a King surely has us killed on this river because he'll have at least a boat if he's putting all his money in after that river card. I still think we're folding to a shove if the river is a pair but it's trivially easy when it's one of those two cards because of the range I am assuming.

I still disagree with your conclusion that shoving gives you more value when we believe, from our understanding of how the hand has been played, that most of our value is coming from the player who can't reasonably call a shove at this point. Yeah, the raiser here might be playing around with two pair and not have a Q... but we're not being called when we shove unless they have the Queen. A raise here drives out the player or players we want in the hand and keeps those who have no value to us... and who might also be freerolling against our hand. Even if we think the BB has a Q and the UTG+1 player is the one raising two pair (maybe because he hates money -- which is like raising to see if it's good)... it doesn't matter because the one with the Q will call and the one with two pair will fold.

If a diamond comes on the river or the board pairs... we still have position, we still have most of our stack, and we will be able to see what happens in front of us and reevaluate at that time. Why are we going to give up the value of our position here when we don't have to?

I also disagree that this is an automatic call on any river. We're going to have a little over $9 after calling here and the pot's going to be $8.75... I do not see how this is an automatic call on the river if it's especially threatening. I can easily fold for 90xBB+ on the river if I am convinced I am beat and I could certainly see action which would do that. If the A comes on the river and the BB shoves and the UTG+1 player calls... I am laying this down without a second thought.