Odds question...

[dew12109]

What are the odds of getting AA three times, and QQ once, and all four times consequtively having a lower pocket pair outdraw you with trips after both of you are all in?

Just curious, because this has been my night. I lost every single time I had a high pocket pair.

[gamer4life27]

The chance of getting any one hand in particular is 216:1 (I believe). Going off this information, getting a certain 4 pocket pairs in a row, is (261:1)^4 which is 4640470641:1 (my math could be totally off, but whatever.). Each of those times, when facing a smaller pocket pair, you are about a 82% favorite (from card players hand calculator). So not every single time you will win.

Everyone has those bad run of cards. I'm sure you are just exaggerating, but if you aren't then it's just bad luck. No one can control the cards every single time, so people will hit there one outers once in a while.

[phosphorescence]

think it's something like 256:1 to lose all 4

(4:1)^4

could be wrong though, been a while since i did probabilities at school lol

i've been getting some pretty lousy luck recently too, just gotta keep going and hope it turns.

[ungarstu132]

Originally Posted by phosphorescence think it's something like 256:1 to lose all 4 (4:1)^4 could be wrong though, been a while since i did probabilities at school lol i've been getting some pretty lousy luck recently too, just gotta keep going and hope it turns.

thats about right, since you are about 80% to win with a higher pocket pair...back to back, im not sure

[DaGreenster]

odds of being dealt a pair in holdem is 1 in 17. 13 pairs so 13/221 times you will get a pocket pair. speaking of an individual pair is 1 in 221. so taking 4 pocket pairs and string them in a row the odds are:

[(1/221)*(1/221)*(1/221)*(1/221)]*[1/256] = tiny ass number.

the first part is the odds of being dealt those 4 big pps all in row. and roughly you are 4:1 to win the overpair vs underpair, so (1/4)^4 = 1/256 which is where you get the second number. essentially, it shouldnt happen, but in rare instances when you have bad karma coming to you, it does happen.

[frob23]

(4:1)^4 != 256:1

4:1 means you will win 4 times for every 1 time you lose. You are talking about 5 hands here, not 4. One of those 5 hands, you will lose. This is (1/5)^4 or (1/625) or (624:1).

As for what the odds are, it depends on the pair itself and when you got all-in. If you got all-in pre-flop each time that is different from getting it in good on the flop and getting drawn out by the turn or river.

If we assume it was all pre-flop and that the odds work out to roughly 4:1... then the number above will be fine -- 624:1.

I once got KK twice in a row and was against AA both times. At a full table, the odds of this was 650:1 (just for being up against AA twice in a row when holding KK... since the KK was a given... the real odds are much higher). That was ugly... and no, I wasn't able to suck out either time.

[DaGreenster]

right, youve got the 1/625 thing right, i was looking at the post above mine... silly me.

[dew12109]

Originally Posted by gamer4life27 The chance of getting any one hand in particular is 216:1 (I believe). Going off this information, getting a certain 4 pocket pairs in a row, is (261:1)^4 which is 4640470641:1 (my math could be totally off, but whatever.). Each of those times, when facing a smaller pocket pair, you are about a 82% favorite (from card players hand calculator). So not every single time you will win. Everyone has those bad run of cards. I'm sure you are just exaggerating, but if you aren't then it's just bad luck. No one can control the cards every single time, so people will hit there one outers once in a while.

No, this happened in a 30 minute period. I did not mean literally consecutively.. but I meant, I was faced with this situation 4 times and lost each time. I did not get a higher pocket pair than someone else and when the hand. Literally everytime I had a high pocket pair, I lost to a lower pocket pair. I've never hated seeing a high pocket pair more

[dew12109]

Okay... 0.2^4... would this be the correct odds? So 0.16% of this happening? I guess this number should actually be a hair lower, because 1 of those times with AA, I waited for the flop and then the other person went all in when 7 2 3 hit on the flop, I called and he showed JJ and hit a J on the turn after the all in had occurred... but 0.16% is good enough for me to at least feel better that statistically this won't happen again for a long time :-)

[emoneypitt]

A higher pocket pair is roughly an 80% favorite to win against a lower pocket pair preflop in any given hand. Therefore, to lose 4 times in a row in that situation I would think would be (0.2)^4 = .0016 or 1/625 as has already been mentioned. That's a rough estimate though assuming that neither of the two cards that could hit lower trips were dealt to another player in the hand and also accounting for the rare straight or flush situation that could beat you also.

[dew12109]

Originally Posted by emoneypitt A higher pocket pair is roughly an 80% favorite to win against a lower pocket pair preflop in any given hand. Therefore, to lose 4 times in a row in that situation I would think would be (0.2)^4 = .0016 or 1/625 as has already been mentioned. That's a rough estimate though assuming that neither of the two cards that could hit lower trips were dealt to another player in the hand and also accounting for the rare straight or flush situation that could beat you also.

All right, I just wanted to make sure I was understanding everything correctly. And the all ins always occurred just between me and another player... the straight or flush situation would have had to be with a lower pocker pair.