Playing the river with top pair, decent kicker, and a pair on board.

[frob23]

In this hand, I managed to get nearly half my stack involved with a marginal hand against the other big stack at the table. Comments are welcome. As well as advice on what to do on the end. This is not the final table. There are 12 players left at this time on two different tables. We are far enough away from the money that ICM calculations aren't useful.

This is a live game. The villain and I are the big stacks at the table and the average stack size is about 3,300 in chips. Both blinds are very, very tight at this point and have been limping, if possible, and folding to any pre-flop action. The villain has been active and is generally loose but not very aggressive.

Blinds 200/400 -- 6 Handed

Hero: 6,400
Villain: 5,600
SB: 900
BB: 1,400

Hero: Q-J

Folds around to Hero in the CO seat. Hero bets 900. Villain on the button calls. Both blinds fold.

Flop: [J-9-7] (rainbow) Pot 2,400
Hero bets 700. Villain calls

Turn [J-9-7][9] Pot 3,800
Hero bets 1,200. Villain calls

This is where I get worried. I can't figure out what he is calling with. He might have a better kicker with the J, or maybe a 9. I can't discount a slow-played straight. In all, I am very worried about his call here. There is no possible flush draw.

River [J-9-7-9][3] Pot 6,200
Hero checks. Villain bets 1,000.
Hero ???.

I have 3,600 left behind at this point. Villain has 1,800 after this bet. Try as I might, I just can't put the villain on a hand here and have been confused since his call on the turn. What hand could he possibly call pre-flop with, that fits this action, and that I beat now? Do I call this or let it go and rebuild? I'll still have a larger than average stack. Then again, even if I call and lose, I won't be far below the average.

I'd be very interested in what people think the villain has here and what the correct move is. I've discussed the same hand with several people but always like more insight.

[liladypokerpro]

Well considering you checked on the river, he could be holding AJ and feel that it is the best hand and put forth the 1,000 bet. Being that he just flat called up until that point, I don't see him holding JJ, J9 or A9, or else he (should or would) have raised before the river. I'm not entirely sure as you said it's hard to put someone on anything in particular when they flat call all the way down to 5th street.

[frob23]

Originally Posted by liladypokerpro Well considering you checked on the river, he could be holding AJ and feel that it is the best hand and put forth the 1,000 bet. Being that he just flat called up until that point, I don't see him holding JJ, J9 or A9, or else he (should or would) have raised before the river. I'm not entirely sure as you said it's hard to put someone on anything in particular when they flat call all the way down to 5th street.

So you call or fold here? Or maybe shove and try to move him off a single pair?


This player is passive but I believe if he had a 9, he would have shoved the turn. He's shoved over the top of a min-bet before when hitting a flush... so he's not afraid to put them in with a good hand.

Edit: still, there is no reason to assume a slow-play is impossible here.

[liladypokerpro]

Well given all the information you've gathered on this player (since I don't know what he's done throughout the game and you do) I would say call, since you have him covered. Since the possibility of the slowplay exists, and your hand isn't as strong as you'd like it to be, I wouldn't raise in this case...especially if the player has been making a habit of playing high kicker hands like the suspected AJ. One thing the pros agree on, you should rarely ever fold on the river if you make it that far and have a good bit of chips left. You've invested a lot up to that point, it's better to pay for information than to fold the best hand.

I think the main problem comes with your check on the river. You'd shown aggression up to this point. By checking, you signal possible weakness, or an attempt to check-raise. In the other player's mind, by betting 1,000 into a check-raise possibility, he is signalling that he is happy enough with his hand that he is willing to call a possible all in raise. However, I find it hard to believe he would not go all in on the river if he had indeed been slowplaying three of a kind or a full house...that is unless as I said, he was feeling you out for a check-raise.

Again, it's hard to say since I know nothing more of this player than what you've provided; It's hard for me to say really what I would do in this situation unless I actually played it myself. Inevitably, the decision is yours to make...if you win, you can applaud your efforts; if you lose, you paid for information that may be valuable in future hands with this player, without costing yourself more money on the river by raising into a bigger hand.

[frob23]

The information I have on the player is nearly as much as you have. This is maybe 20-30 hands into a tournament and this is his first time at the game. He's not a regular player there.

He shoved a flush holding J-3 of clubs at one point and he's shown, if anything, a habit of playing any two cards. Although I suspect he could have A-J here, his history doesn't make that a certainty. He's gotten as many chips as he did because of that J-3c hand, when he was called by a player with a smaller flush. Of the 20-30 hands we've played, he has been involved in about 80% of them.

As for the call, I think it's automatic just from the pot odds and not just because we've made it to the river. I have no problem folding, even if a call would leave me with plenty of chips, if the pot's not large enough to make it worth it. I'm being offered 7.2-1 on the call here and the problem is a proper range. If his range is large enough that calling with those odds makes sense, then it's a good call regardless of outcome. If his range is too small for even those odds to make sense then I need to fold.

As loose as he is, what range could he have here? It's much smaller than any two cards, since the call pre-flop and the call on the flop suggests he has something. And, although a slow-play is possible, I consider it unlikely because of the way he's played previous 'made' hands. He has no problem betting when he thinks he has the best hand. It's just what is his definition of "best hand" in this case?

The check on the end did show weakness and could have inspired a desperation bluff from a hand that missed completely. I understood that as a possibility when I checked. But look at my bet sizes throughout the hand. I haven't shown real strength once. My flop bet was insanely weak and poorly sized and the turn bet was also far too small. I've shown aggression but I've never shown strength and I've been offering him plenty of pot odds to hang around with some marginal hands. I was trying to avoid getting tied to this pot for most of my stack but managed to end up that way anyway.

Also: I know what decision I made. This is a question more about range of hands than anything else. I was completely unable to put him on any solid range of hands as this played out. As for information, this player was turning over just about any hand he had when someone asked, "Did you have such-and-such?" So it was possible I could get the information just by asking if he had the 9 regardless of whether I called or not. The player did not have an understanding of the value of information. This is how I had seen most of the cards he had played and most were marginal, as would be expected of someone playing 80% of their hands.

[liladypokerpro]

Hmm...you are really making me think too hard on my 2 hours of sleep LOL

Honeslty, I can't really tell you from all this what he might have had...I mean if he has been playing freely with hands like J 3, and then shoving when he hits, then judging by a mere 1,000 bet in this hand, it's not likely he had much of anything...I'm still thinking AJ at best.

Hell, players like that will bet with AK having made no hand, thinking it's invincible...so I really just don't know in this case.

Wouldn't it be funny if you both had QJ? LOL I was thinking about that earlier, but didn't find it very likely...

[frob23]

Originally Posted by liladypokerpro Hmm...you are really making me think too hard on my 2 hours of sleep LOL Honeslty, I can't really tell you from all this what he might have had...I mean if he has been playing freely with hands like J 3, and then shoving when he hits, then judging by a mere 1,000 bet in this hand, it's not likely he had much of anything...I'm still thinking AJ at best. Hell, players like that will bet with AK having made no hand, thinking it's invincible...so I really just don't know in this case. Wouldn't it be funny if you both had QJ? LOL I was thinking about that earlier, but didn't find it very likely...

In a day or two, I'll post what he did have. I want to give people time to think about it without having the results taint their thought process. I promise, it's a much more interesting hand than it seems on the surface.

[mollila]

Since you say the villain has not been aggressive, I'd say he called with 88, and made a value bet on the river since you checked and possibly do not have the J.

I'd definitely call that bet. As you say you are still left with a nice stack even though you lose, and larger than the weak blinds on your table.

[TheyNeverLearn]

i dont know much about all the stuff yall are talking about but my guess since i am not that good and he probaly isnt that good either maybe he had 33? only reason i say that is cuz he probably would have played any pocket pair the same as any other hand he had played with before and knowing how the river is online i would bet money he had 33 haha.

[frob23]

There's no need to very ultra specific here. But everyone has had some decent guesses. Personally, I think he plays A-J, A-7, K-J, Q-J, J-10, J-8, J-7, 8-8, 6-6, and so on like this. I suppose 7-8 is also possible. There were probably a bunch of other hands that he also could be playing here. I accepted the possibility of J-J, 9-9, 7-7, and 3-3 as being out there but from past experience I expect that this player wouldn't be putting in a pure value bet here and would be looking to shove. And the bigger pairs 10-10+ I think I would have faced a reraise with pre-flop... but they're also possible.

After some thought, and before I called, I really liked the idea of J-7. It struck me as just the sort of hand that he might slow-play on the flop (and it may have been in his range to call pre-flop) to my weak raise. The paired turn would have killed his two pair (if I had a pair) and he might call there in desperation. When I checked the end he might have thought his Js and 9s were good because I would have bet trip 9s.

Regardless of the range... I figured the vast majority of his hands I was ahead of. And I was being offered excellent odds to call. The way he had been playing was so loose that there was no way I could narrow his range enough to assume I had bad odds on the call. I hate making "crying calls" where I think I may be beat but am compelled to make the call... but sometimes that happens.

RESULTS FOLLOW [Below this line in white]:

The villain in this hand, to my utter shock, rolls over J-10. He loses to my Q kicker.



Although this hand was in my possible range... pretty much everything was in my range and I never thought too much about it. It's similar to the J-7 hand but even weaker on the flop. Still, possible to call with considering the pathetically tiny bet I made.

The player considered this an epic beat and could not get over it. He proceeded to call off the rest of his chips before the blinds were to go up again. He just could not believe that I had beat him in that hand. I have no idea what he put me on. Granted, I don't know what I could have put myself on when facing bets like that.

Still, the pained expression he had for the rest of the time he was in the game (as short as it was) was classic. He'd just look at my chips and moan.

[frob23]

I forgot to add, in my last post, that one reason this is so interesting is because of his horrible bet on the end. This is the absolute epitome of betting when you're going to get called by hands that beat you but not by hands that don't. If I had A-K or A-Q and was continuation betting the flop and firing a second bullet on the turn, there is no way I am calling the river bet.

In fact, there are no hands here that I could imagine calling with where I would be losing to his hand. On top of that, his bet was way too small to move me off a better hand. If he had decided to shove, I would have a very hard call with a lot of hands that beat his. That could make his bet at least defendable. But it would be defendable mostly because of the fold-equity and because it gets a lot of better hands to fold. But this isn't a great board to shove, because if I did happen to have a 9, then he's getting called and going broke. So even though it's a move that can be defended, it's not the best move. It still would have put me in a very ugly spot.

With a hand as marginal as he had, but one which might win in showdown, you never want to turn down the opportunity to check it down at the end. This is basic knowledge for most people. You don't bet a hand which is only going to be called by better hands but may beat hands which would fold.

I honestly believe, if he had checked behind like the smart move was... he would have felt less devastated than losing that extra 1,000 and would have been less likely to throw the game away like that.

When I described this hand to someone and they heard the results... they were blown away that he would bet a hand that good, and yet that marginal, at showdown. There's a fine middle ground where you should be very happy to just check. Obviously, with the worst hands that have no chance... you might want to bet in an attempt to bluff the pot off the other player. And with a really strong hand, you want to bet to try and make just a little more. But, and I am repeating myself here, when you're only losing money by betting and never making it... please don't do it.

The player I told this hand to has insisted that I call him the instant I see this player at the tournament again. Because he'll be on his way to get in no matter what is going on. Even if he will be 15 minutes late and has to deal with his stack being blinded down. He lives to play people who make mistakes that costly and then go on tilt when faced with the results.