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Hand Analysis Need advice on a tough situation, or comments on your play? Ask others for their opinion.


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View Poll Results: What would you do?
Fold 2 28.57%
Call 1 14.29%
Re-raise pot 4 57.14%
Voters: 7. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 24th August 2008, 05:52 AM
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Default Poker Quiz from another forum

This is a poker quiz from another site. Im posting it here to get some opinions. I totally disagree with what the author thinks. I will post the so-called correct answer Monday evening.

Full Omaha house

You were dealt: 8c 8h 9h 6c

A mid pos player has raised pot and two people have called already, so you do too. Both blinds call as well and six of you see the flop.

Said flop comes As Ac 8d.

The small blind bets pot and the player who raised pre-flop raises pot. The others fold to you.

What should you do? You have 110 big blinds, the sb has 100 and the reraiser 130 big blinds.

A. Fold
B. Call
C. Re-raise pot
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Old 24th August 2008, 02:20 PM
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i'd probably reraise here. gotta assume the original raiser has an ace (no way he has quads btw lol) and if he wants to make a boat he's gonna have to pay for it. the SB is probably just representing an ace, or perhaps has the last ace in the deck. either way i want to narrow the field or win the pot right here. you have no way of knowing if the turn or river gave him a full house, so i'd probably play it cautiously on these streets one of them calls.

then again, i don't know anything about omaha strategy, but enjoy the game. so take what i say with a spoonful of salt.
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Old 24th August 2008, 06:22 PM
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I would probably reraise here as well, you only lose to AA and A8 right now, and I bet at least one of them has an A, so it is my idea that you will want as much money in the pot as long as you have the best hand and if by chance you are beat on the flop well GG theres the cooler.
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Old 24th August 2008, 06:35 PM
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Assuming we aren't beat already, and they both have an Ace... we're not a favorite to win this by the river. In the worst case scenario we have to dodge 18 outs twice (if they don't hold any matching cards). That would give us 33% equity here... which is not terrible because we're probably going to get 2-1 on this hand. But if we are already beat... we're drawing practically dead. If one of them doesn't have an Ace, it's better for us, but I think that is highly unlikely given the betting.

Our best case would be if they have over-lapping hands. If two of their three remaining cards match each other... our equity improves to almost 55%. And there are possible variation between that.

My original instinct was to fold here, actually. But you might have the pot odds to play for stacks here if you like to gamble.
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Old 24th August 2008, 06:38 PM
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A mid pos player has raised pot and two people have called already, so you do too. Both blinds call as well and six of you see the flop.

Said flop comes As Ac 8d.

The small blind bets pot and the player who raised pre-flop raises pot. The others fold to you.

The hand i'd be most worried about here would be A8xx, i know there is only one more 8 in the deck but with this many players seeing the flop it is very possible. I would put the SB on an ace and possibly A8xx, i don't belive the reraiser has AAxx as it doesn't make sense to reraise the pot here with quads. If they both just have trips e.g. AKKT and A567 thats still 14 outs for one of them to make a better FH and of course if one of them has A8xx your drawing dead. I think all things considered you'd be better off in the long run folding, i know it's a very tough and slightly tight lay down but being able to lay down an underfill in omaha when there is a lot of action needs to be done sometimes.
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Old 25th August 2008, 09:57 PM
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Default The answer is:

Fold (correct)
The correct answer is actually to fold. You may very well face two people with an ace each - actually, it's likely - and you won't have odds in that case. With smaller stacks, yes, but you won't know if you're ahead or not here. Your opponents will know when they are, however, as they will almost always have the nuts in that case. So you'll win a small pot when you're ahead but lose a big when one the others have better hands.


I do not agree with this. You have already made your full house, where your opponents probably have not. I feel you have to bet this.
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Old 25th August 2008, 10:10 PM
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Good to know. I wasn't willing to get picked apart for voting "fold" until I saw the answer.

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Old 26th August 2008, 01:38 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by liladypokerpro View Post
Good to know. I wasn't willing to get picked apart for voting "fold" until I saw the answer.

lol, so you were the other nit. Folding was my first reaction and it was how I voted. I did later grant that there might be some logic in playing this for stacks if you're comfortable going in as a break even dog. But I hate playing like that myself.

Edit: The one problem I have with the answer is, "How much smaller do our stacks need to be?"
3.5xBB * 6 players = 21xBB pot on the flop.

21xBB bet, 84xBB reraise and the pot is now 126xBB. I do not even know how the problem could say you have the option to reraise pot. You can raise, all-in, but it wouldn't be a pot sized reraise. A pot sized rereraise here is now 294xBB. You only have 110xBB.

I mean, we're basically playing for stacks at this point. You're not getting the reraiser to fold for 26xBB more (not for a 236xBB pot assuming the SB folds). So we know he's coming along, But if we assume the SB folds... is 152-110 a good price for our hand? I would say it's not. I assume the stack amounts in this problem are when the action gets to you... and if we know the SB is coming along... 252-110 could be enough to play here. . . assuming we're not worried about already beaing beaten.
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Old 26th August 2008, 04:23 AM
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LOL yeah, it was me I didn't feel like having to explain myself so I just never commented after I voted LOL

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Old 27th August 2008, 01:28 PM
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I think this hand is basically a 50/50 decision between folding or raising, neither is a bad play and neither will see you in much profit or loss long term. Im certainly no nit when it comes to PLO and i would still fold here. This is why you should avoid playing small pairs, because they get you into tough situations like this. The worst thing you can do in poker is get all your money in drawing dead and that is a possibilty here.
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Old 27th August 2008, 09:52 PM
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This really depends on how well you can handle variance. When you play for all of your stack on this hand, you are going to be outdrawn very often and lose the pot even when you hold the best hand on the flop.
One reason to fold is that you have not contributed very much to the pot, and can get away cheaply. The reason to call or raise is because you think you hold the best hand on the flop. Given the flop action, it is unlikely that either of your opponents is going to fold, so you will be seeing the turn and river three ways. Given the action we can assume both opponents hold an ace.
The important aspect of this hand is that you hold 8s full of aces, and can only improve with the case 8. Assuming you are ahead, your opponents will be drawing to an aces over full house and so hitting any of their other hole cards will put them ahead.

If we play for our stack, one of the best case scenarios is when both of your opponents hold an ace and the same rank of their remaining cards, for example both opponents have AKQJ.
Your hand is ~70%. This equity can improve to 90% if they both hold AKKJ, for example. However, this scenario will happen much less often than both of your opponents holding an ace and no to two cards overlapping.
With two cards overlapping, such as AKQJ and AKQ10, you have ~54% equity.
With one overlapping card, such as AKQ10 and AKJ7, you have ~40% equity.
With no overlapping cards, such as AKQJ and A1075, you have ~28% equity.
Their hole cards could also overlap with your 9 and 6, giving you a slightly higher equity than if your opponents hold no overlapping cards.
There is also the scenario when you are already beat against one of your opponents holding A8xx, in which case you're dead.

So, it's close. Based on the action, I'd put more weight on the scenarios where you're dead, have ~28% or ~40% equity than the other two (simply because it is less likely to have two overlapping cards than one, and extremely rare that they will have 3 overlapping hole cards).
I'd lean towards fold after going through this, but would almost always raise in the moment.
Great example of a hand. Really gets you thinking about different things that you wouldn't have time to process at an online table.
Thanks.
And, cardplayer.com has a great (free) odds calculator for hold'em and omaha (which I used for calculating the equities). From their homepage, click on online tools, then odds calculator and choose your option. Fooling around with it can give some interesting insights.
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Old 27th August 2008, 09:56 PM
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Obviously (but just saying) it is a much better situation when you hold the same hand, the flop comes 778, and each opponent holds a 7.
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Old 31st August 2008, 06:13 AM
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This is a fold against two players, and a reraise if 1 player saw flop with you, against 2 players, its a given that each has an ace, one most likely AKxx the other A8xx the a8 has u drawin dead and regaurless neither of them are folding so u have possible 6 kickers to dodge which is too many. You rarely see this fold in low stakes omaha, but itis a good one to make, and can be the difference between winning and losing.
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