Proof that I am not good enough to lay down KK even if I know they have AA.

[frob23]

I have seen people ask before if they could fold KK pre-flop if they were certain another player had AA. This was about as close as I had ever come to being nearly certain I was against AA (I was actually) and I still couldn't do it. I console myself by saying it's because of the side pot that I was able to build with a deeper stack but I am not fooling anyone. I couldn't have laid this down.

I was playing a live private tournament last night. The button in the following hand is a strong, solid player and has just been very unfortunate to run a flopped set into a rivered flush. He lost slightly over half of his stack in that confrontation.

Important stacks:
UTG: 3000
Hero: 2925
Button: 1250

I am in mid-position. The blinds are 25/50.

UTG minraises to 100. It folds to me, and I look down at K-K. I do not want people coming in behind me and I pop it up to 300.

It folds to the button who moves all-in. I know this player and I know he's not doing this light. I figure I'm looking at QQ-AA. And KK is extremely unlikely (as I hold the other two) and QQ is fairly weak for him to shove over my reraise -- as he generally respects my raises. I figure there is a real good chance I am running my Kings into Aces here. In fact, as I know this player is solid and observant and knows that my reraising range pre-flop is very tight (my opening raising range is wider but not reraising) I am sure that he puts me on a big pair here. I know he's putting me on something like JJ+ at least... so that makes the QQ hand even less likely.

The blinds fold and the UTG player calls. While she took the time to make the call, I kept thinking about the situation and became more and more convinced that the Button had to have AA. It was the only hand that he could be 3-bet shoving in that spot when I was the person to put in the second bet. I know it sounds like I have given him too much credit for the range he puts me on but this player has open-folded 10-10, J-J, and AKs to my pre-flop reraises. If anything, he is too tight against my pre-flop aggression (and I do use that to my advantage later in the tournaments).

I am confident that I am ahead of the UTG player, if not the Button, and move all-in. She calls.

Main pot: 3,825
Side pot: 3,350

UTG: AQd
Hero: KK
Button: AA

Sure enough, I am in real bad shape against the button. But I am in excellent shape for the side pot. So I do stand to make a profit from this hand. Not much of a profit but better than losing everything. I was also pleased with my read on the Button... even though I wasn't good enough to go with it.

Flop: [5-8-7] rainbow

This helps none of us. I am still a favorite for the side pot and the Button is still a favorite for the main pot.

Turn: [5-8-7]-[10]

Nothing new. At this point the Button says, "Please no King this time... just one more card without a King."

River: [5-8-7-10]-[K]

MONSTROUS SUCK-OUT!!! [The crowd goes wild.]

I hit my two outer to take down 7175 in chips and put myself solidly in the lead. The Button takes it in stride, admitting that he wouldn't be able to lay down Kings there either. In almost all the time I have played, I've never been that sure I was against AA. It was the end result of hundreds of hours of playing him and history as well as the situation. But, even with all that, I wasn't strong enough to lay down the Ks like I should have been able to. Against other players, in less certain situations, I wouldn't stand a chance to lay them down.

[iceveins0901]

I just think it was great getting the UTG to call your all in, puts you in great shape in the hand, not to mention if you get lucky you take down the whole thing, NH.

[irishpkr]

You thought he might have AA, but its so hard to be sure. I've thought it myself playing a live game, I thought that by the time it was 5bet by some weak nit that my KK were beaten. I tanked for a minute then ruefully called and was shown JJ and TT. It just seems like you can never be certain enough to fold them for 60BB :/

[Gothman]

With those stacks, insta call every time.

[MikeyInc]

not bad frob. how was the observation if the girl? .. did you know that was easy side pot winnings ? .. i mean that would have been a pretty scary time before the flop .. you had to wait for her to take her time! .. before you seen your fate WOW

[frob23]

Originally Posted by MikeyInc not bad frob. how was the observation if the girl? .. did you know that was easy side pot winnings ? .. i mean that would have been a pretty scary time before the flop .. you had to wait for her to take her time! .. before you seen your fate WOW

The woman was new to the game and not aware of my range... but she was familiar with the Button so I am sure she suspected he had a hand. From the way she took her time and counted it out, I was certain it wasn't a premium hand (at least not one that was a threat to my Kings) but also certain that she was committed pre-flop. When she put the chips in, I was certain she wasn't going to be able to lay this down. She respected the Button much more than me and he was the one she was worried about.

This was officially hand #6 of the tournament. But it was the second tournament of the evening so I had some history with her from the previous game.

She didn't take nearly as much time to call me as the Button... maybe 5 seconds. It was fast. And I was watching her hand first when it was flipped (she was directly across from me). I almost thought, when I saw the AQd, that the Button might not have AA. But then I turned to my left... and his Aces are face-up on the felt. At that point, I felt fairly certain that the side-pot was mine. As I saw it... there was really only 1 disaster card left in the deck. Sure the straight or flush was possible... but I was terrified of the case Ace making both their hands.

[bossmanisme]

i'm not exactly sure on the math... but i'm pretty sure it's actually statistically correct for you to go with it here. when UTG has already called the all in, now you reraise and she's calling every time. (or should be, if she calls the first all in, so lets assume for simplicity.) with her range, you're winning the side pot 80-90 percent of the time. and that's all you need to win to actually make a profit here. plus, a little under 20% of the time you'll scoop the whole thing. sooo... nh. would have been a horrible fold, i think.

now, had she mucked to his all in, then it's still a tough laydown. as it's only 900 more to win 1600-1700. but you can still do it profitably.

(assuming all my math is right)

NJM

[Vito_Nuccio]

Regardless of the results you have verified and can restore the information in your head about this player. Your read was dead on even if you were behind to start. KK is the toughest pre-flop hand to fold and without a perfect read, seldom will it be thrown to the muck.

Keep your reads handy, they will benifit you to the end. Any other hand and this discussion is moot, I get a feeling you would have folded QQ or JJ to this player in this situation, but KK preflop by far is the hardest to let go. You read the situation correctly, made the wrong play and won. Take it as a good lesson and a little payback for the times the suckouts go the other way.

Later,

[bossmanisme]

Originally Posted by Vito_Nuccio Regardless of the results you have verified and can restore the information in your head about this player. Your read was dead on even if you were behind to start. KK is the toughest pre-flop hand to fold and without a perfect read, seldom will it be thrown to the muck. Keep your reads handy, they will benifit you to the end. Any other hand and this discussion is moot, I get a feeling you would have folded QQ or JJ to this player in this situation, but KK preflop by far is the hardest to let go. You read the situation correctly, made the wrong play and won. Take it as a good lesson and a little payback for the times the suckouts go the other way. Later,

agree. except he didn't make the wrong play.

[Vito_Nuccio]

Originally Posted by bossmanisme agree. except he didn't make the wrong play.

Yes, I agree, when re-reading the post Frob did use the proper read on the UTG player. Having the aces covered by more than 2-1 and the other player in the pot does make the difference in determing the play was fine. The suckout was a bonus.

Thanks,

[Brooklynbum]

First off I think it was a bad play.

Why risk your whole stack so early in the tournament?

Especially with KK. It is a strong hand but in the end you get paid for making correct decisions, making the really tough decisions is the key between a good and great player.

If you think you're beat and you call anyway, then IMO you played it wrong.

That being said it is very hard to laydown KK preflop but it's been done.

[Wyte22]

It's much harder to lay down KK than to AA. Because most of the time when you lay down AA, you didn't go all in preflop and the board is brutual like JhTh9h8h and you are holding AsAc. Or in the end game when your right around the money and someone makes a move and they are close in chip count to you, and couple of other people moved all in with him, do you really wanna risk losing your chance to cash this tourney to take on 3 other players with your AA? in the smaller tourneys yes, but in the larger ones no.

But KK, is special. Because it is the supermen lol Even if the Ace hits, you must see what the other person has, even if they showed you the ace, most people still wouldn't lay down KK, they would move all in and pray for the river K.

[phaul]

This is a great situation for you frob. If you're certain button has AA and UTG will call, then you're at worst roughly +$505 (if UTG has an underpair). The only time you're -EV is when UTG has AA, which is not very often. Plus you get to confirm your read.

[frob23]

"A lot of players will tell you stories about the times they folded kings because they knew their opponent was raising with aces. Here's my story. About a year ago, a tight player in the big blind raised me. I actually thought he had aces. I was in early position with a pair of kings. I made a modest raise and he reraised me. I thought a long time and called. The flop came three small cards, and he bet a modest amount and I called. He actually had the aces.

I almost threw the hand away, but I couldn't do it. Just not savvy enough. Even bets and raises that seem to indicate great strength can have a variety of explanations, from moderately strong hands to outright bluffs. And here's a little secret from the world of top-class poker. Nobody else is that savvy either, no matter what they tell you."

-Dan Harrington

[bossmanisme]

Originally Posted by frob23 "A lot of players will tell you stories about the times they folded kings because they knew their opponent was raising with aces. Here's my story. About a year ago, a tight player in the big blind raised me. I actually thought he had aces. I was in early position with a pair of kings. I made a modest raise and he reraised me. I thought a long time and called. The flop came three small cards, and he bet a modest amount and I called. He actually had the aces. I almost threw the hand away, but I couldn't do it. Just not savvy enough. Even bets and raises that seem to indicate great strength can have a variety of explanations, from moderately strong hands to outright bluffs. And here's a little secret from the world of top-class poker. Nobody else is that savvy either, no matter what they tell you." -Dan Harrington

good to see you're reading his book. (i hope. because it's brilliant).

harrington is a genius. but he's wrong here. there are times when it's against the right player and in the right situation that AA is the only hand possible. sometimes KK can be mucked to AA.

[frob23]

Originally Posted by bossmanisme good to see you're reading his book. (i hope. because it's brilliant). harrington is a genius. but he's wrong here. there are times when it's against the right player and in the right situation that AA is the only hand possible. sometimes KK can be mucked to AA.

If you're referring to the tournament books, I've read them heavily. If you're talking about the cash game ones... they're on my list -- right after "Professional NL Hold'em".

Note that even here, against this super-nit, AA was not the only hand... KK was also possible. There are 6 ways to hold AA and 1 way to hold KK (when I hold KK). So there was a 14% chance it wasn't AA here. Not that it changes much but it does change something. And that's completely ruling out QQ... which I eventually did but it could have happened.