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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 27th August 2008, 03:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeKnows View Post
You did not have that good of a hand to start with and going allin was crazy !
It's heads up... QTo is 57.3-42.7 against a random hand. If the guy is folding the bottom 10% of the hands and calling with the rest... 54.5% favorite.

In fact, if he's calling as much as 60% of the time... we're break even when he calls... and winning the other 40% of the time. It's only when he starts folding more than 50% of the time that QTo becomes a dog and we're picking up the blinds half the time we make this play which compensates for some of that -- depending on how big the blinds are. In fact, if the blinds are large enough, our equity with this hand can improve enough to open-shove even if he's calling with only the top 10% of the hands. I'll grant that the blinds have to be LARGE to make that the case but it does happen.

I am not a huge fan of the open-shove... when a normal raise should accomplish the same thing. But if this guy is calling with any two cards, or shoving any two cards every hand, then this is a good enough hand to take a stand with. As we don't have a history, we don't know if the the other guy was shoving every hand or not or otherwise over-playing his hands or calling too often. As it is... we do know he was calling with any two cards. So we can use the random hand equity and know this is a greater than 57% hand against his range. If we knew he had 2-4o... our hand is a 2-1 favorite over that hand.

But heads up... QTo is not a bad hand.
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 27th August 2008, 03:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by frob23 View Post
It's heads up... QTo is 57.3-42.7 against a random hand. If the guy is folding the bottom 10% of the hands and calling with the rest... 54.5% favorite.

In fact, if he's calling as much as 60% of the time... we're break even... when he calls and winning the other 40% of the time. It's only when he starts folding more than 50% of the time that QTo becomes a dog and we're picking up the blinds half the time we make this play.

I am not a huge fan of the open-shove... when a normal raise should accomplish the same thing. But if this guy is calling with any two cards, or shoving any two cards every hand, then this is a good enough hand to take a stand with. As we don't have a history, we don't know if the the other guy was shoving every hand or not or otherwise over-playing his hands or calling too often.

But heads up... QTo is not a bad hand,

Sry I left the history out by accident

I believe the stats were 60/37/2.1 (around this [could be wrong here but i am somewhat sure those are close], ultra fish, raised alot, folded to all in bets as long as he/she didn't 3bet the pot). We played around 67% of the pots, mostly raised. Bluffed scare cards consistently, 70% of the time (that I called) with air. RARELY called an all in (split 2 all ins and I won 1 short stacked and Lost one to become short stack again).

This QTo all in was while I was rallying back from 250 chips after the last all in left me crippled.
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 27th August 2008, 04:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Wyte22 View Post
Heads up play is less about the cards and more about playing the player. This villian was hyper-aggressive but folded to all in bets, NOT pot (or large raises outside of the all in). That's why I made the all in.

Good read.
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 27th August 2008, 04:33 AM
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And yes, QTo is a decent hand HU. For raising/seeing flops. No-one's suggesting you fold.

Frob, you DON'T know he's gonna call ATC til after you make the move, when the info is useless! If you assume he has a normal calling range, the allin is terrible, and at the very least, better EV could be gained by making a normal-sized raise, especially if you know he's a donk and you can outplay him.

Wyte, in the second hand, if you're gonna leave your cards blank, leave out the suits too! Also your bet sizing on all streets is pretty poor, especially on the flop and turn. A case can be made for the shove, I guess.

Seeing as we know you hold 2 diamonds, most likely hand would be 78dd or 89dd.
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Old 27th August 2008, 05:16 AM
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Originally Posted by phaul View Post
And yes, QTo is a decent hand HU. For raising/seeing flops. No-one's suggesting you fold.

Frob, you DON'T know he's gonna call ATC til after you make the move, when the info is useless! If you assume he has a normal calling range, the allin is terrible, and at the very least, better EV could be gained by making a normal-sized raise, especially if you know he's a donk and you can outplay him.

Wyte, in the second hand, if you're gonna leave your cards blank, leave out the suits too! Also your bet sizing on all streets is pretty poor, especially on the flop and turn. A case can be made for the shove, I guess.

Seeing as we know you hold 2 diamonds, most likely hand would be 78dd or 89dd.
First off, you can't "outplay" a maniac, they will always put you to the test before you can put them to the test! The only way to make a play against a maniac is Pre-flop unless you got a monster. Maniacs more than likely, will call/re-raise pot size and 3x raises with air, but they will not call all ins unless they have top 15% of hands (usually, this nut job was the expection).

2nd off, There was a reason behind my bet sizing, I knew I was ahead, but I had to play it like I had a 2 and was scared to bet, then the massive overbet on the river when it looks like my 2 got counterfeited and i'm trying to steal the pot. That was the story I was telling, villian bought it and the farm (he had JT). and as for hands, you were wrong on both but good shot at guessing.

Bet sizing is wonderful when you don't have a strategy to get all your villian's chips into the middle. I had a strategy, I had a villian who thought he was clever and made good reads. I played to that, and bet small and scared like a 2 and then the massive overbet to make him think I am trying to rep the 8. Painting pictures with multiple level thinking is a beautiful thing

So obviously since I got the villian to committ 98% of his stack when he is drawing dead, I played it correctly for my villian
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 27th August 2008, 06:04 AM
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Default Seriously, what?

If you're playing a maniac, you just go really passive, widen your calling range, wait for a good/tolerable hand and let them pay you off. This is outplaying them and it's so easy to do!

So you're repping a negated 2 which tries to rep the 8 on the river. That's pretty precise! You almost never have a 2 here though, that's one of the most preposterous reps I've ever heard. I'm pretty certain the negated 2 part of your play will have flown straight over his head.

Bet sizing is def bad. The bet sizing should be consistent with that in previous hands, so even if it worked optimally here it's terrible in all the other hands.

If villain had JT here he's a moron, even if you are bluffing trying to rep the 8 he's way behind your range, he's only good 44% of the time if you're always bluffing AND play hands like 32o. It really doesn't take much to outplay this kind of villain. Maybe I should start playing HU...

Did you have 2 diamonds? Either way I figured you were just massively strong and fold most hands here if I'm villain. I think this is almost never a bluff.
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 27th August 2008, 06:29 AM
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Ahh, I edited a little bit of my post while you were responding.

Fine, w/e. Oh and villain in OP shows you're definitely not the worst player ever!

Edit: OK, post Wyte's last post was deleted...
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 27th August 2008, 06:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by phaul View Post
Ahh, I edited a little bit of my post while you were responding.

Fine, w/e. Oh and villain in OP shows you're definitely not the worst player ever!

Edit: OK, post Wyte's last post was deleted...
I deleted it because we have a major disagreement about style and strategy to get the villian's chips. I've had enough drama in my life the last couple of months and I want to make friends with all. Soo I understand what you say but I completely disagree about the bet sizings because you can't always play accordingly to the books. You gotta go on your read sometimes.

As soon I posted the thread, I noticed I spoke very negative towards you and I apologize about that
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 27th August 2008, 06:40 AM
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That's fine, I apologise for the same reason.
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