Fulltilt constant BadBeats

[powrdragn]

Originally Posted by RiverstarsVictim I have some sympathy for those who complain about being beaten time and again by the flush. Apparently the odds of getting a flush are 509-1 yet when I look at my PT stats for FullTilt, I've recorded 218 flushes in less than 16K hands, far too many. Sadly for me most of them were made with monsters like 8-2 and I folded pre-flop but it's hardly any wonder why so many people call with any 2 suited cards I certainly don't believe the cards are random but I also don't believe any poker site is out to bust anyone, in fact I believe the opposite. The RNG's are designed to keep as many people winning as possible. The players making all the correct decisions will always end up winning longterm whilst the donks who play any 2 suited cards will get their share short term. Of course the latter should eventually go bust but he would've had so much fun he'll be sure to deposit again Just my 2 cents worth. Please feel free to correct me if you think I'm wrong

I think you are not truly looking at that stat. That numbe rdoesn't look completely correct.

And if it is, are you looking at YOU being dealt a flush?

Or is it a flush on the table being dealt?

Are you looking at that number being able to FLOP a flush? Or a flush being made by anyone at the table by the river?


And if you look at your hands, you've probably made many more straights than flushes.

[powrdragn]

In the grand scheme of things folks, blaming the software (on any site) will not fix your game. I have friends that tell me Pokerstars is nothing but bad beat city, yet it has a huge userbase.

I personally don't play there because the software seems laggy and much slower to the sites I prefer.

All of the sites programs are random enough to generate relative results. They also update the algorythms regularly, so they are harder and harder to follow/copy.



I find it all amusing though. It's like I stated before, when you get the "expected" result, no one complains, because they won with their superior play. When people suffer a week's worth of beats, all of a sudden, their opponent's are horrible suckout artists and the site software is bad.


I players a hand a couple of week ago. Wher eI had AQ all-in on the turn against AK on a AA82 board. Lo and behold a 4th diamond came and the AK won with his Kd.

Or another hand, almost a year ago, I raised big preflop and got two callers while I'm holding KK. Flop comes K83. We all get it in, with THREE sets. The board comes running hearts and the 33 wins.

But, then again, about two weeks ago, I was in a hand where I raised big with AA preflop and got two callers. Flop came Q48. both of the othe rplayers were all-in before me and I call. They turn over QQ and 44. The turn was an A. I scopped the pot.

And these were all live games. These things happen. Beats happen online and live. And I've seen worse things happen live than I've EVER seen online.

Simply put, it's not the software folks.

[getoffmyseat]

i have read everything so far and i would like to say i a gree with everything you have had to say thanlk you for taking out the time to write this ..

[pokerqueen]

My view on this subject is pretty straight forward some agree and some don't it's choice but i feel online poker with any site they deal out scenario's and the betting of that scenario determines the outcome of the hand.
People call the outdraws bad beats but in reality the cards are setup to fall that certain way and i feel there is no such thing as random cards its all predetermined by the rng.
The main point is with any form of gambling you have the chioce to play or not and most often we choose to play.Arguments will go on for long periods over the random element of online poker and there will always be a divide as each individual evaluates things differently but all you can do is try to get your cash or tourney chips in good and the rest is out of your hands.

[intopot]

YOU SAIID THAT RIGHT. and thats one Both items. Absolutely 100% agree. l

[intopot]

The odds of flopping a flush assuming you hold two suited cards can be calculated as follows. Since there are 52 cards in a deck 13 of each suite--------- the following remain somewhere other than in your hand 11 suited cards out of a remaining 50 cards. so we are trying to first hit one of those 11 out of 50 cards. If we hit one of the cards ,, then their will remain 10 of that suite out there somewhere out of a remaining 49 cards in the deck. (focus here is only on the cards that you know about which is the two in your hand and each street put on the felt) . This does properley account for cards in other players hands as they are part of the unknown deck that we use to calculate. So now the odds of hitting the first flopped card will be 11 out of 50 (11/50). Given this happens there will only be 10 suited cards left out there and now there are 49 unknown cards. The odds of hitting the second card of your suit will therefore be 10 out o 49 (10/49) . Same logic for third flopped card. So we have

11/50 of hitting the first flopped card x 10/49 of hitting the second flopped card , and 9/48 of hitting the third flopped card. so we have 11/50 x10/49 x9x48 . this is 11x10x9 / 50x49x48 which is a very small decical number .008418 which when divided into 1 equals 118.78. (the 1/x) button on the calculator will convert the decimal to the number.
118.78 or about 1/119.

THis can be more ruoughly calculated as follows: aprox 1/5 x 1/5 x1/5 or about 1 in 125 times.

the 1/5 corresponds to the 11/50 or 10/49 and 9/48 which are almost all close to 1 in 5

[irishpkr]

Originally Posted by pokerqueen I feel there is no such thing as random cards its all predetermined by the rng.

Like, randomly determined by the RNG, or the flops are all hardcoded to appear in a fixed rotation?

[pokerqueen]

In reality, most random numbers used in computer programs are pseudo-random, which means they are a generated in a predictable fashion using a mathematical formula.

They are generated in a predictable fashion using a mathamatical formula which to me means not truly random and therefore online poker deals scenarios not hands.

But like i said in my post its choice and a divide there will always be you have your view others see it differently and will never agree because there is no cast iron proof for either argument.
But if people have tracking software for thousands upon thousands of hands at all levels high and low then the results of their hand historys will tell the whole story.

[irishpkr]

Are the scenarios random?

[pokerqueen]

How can a scenario be random it is a staged event and the outcome is known beforehand and like i said hand historys tell the story we know something isn't right and lets take this example of a tourney a good friend of mine was in recently ....

Player x utg is a real tight but aggressive player and has never raised once utg upto this hand he raises to 8000 with blinds of 1000-2000 next two players fold my friend is next to act and has AA he knows Player x who is a very good player would not raise unless he has 1 of the big 3 so he reraises to 20,000 to shut others out and force player x to a desicion.Now after playing for 2 hours and after watching him fold qq jj ak several times it should be a no brainer and player x should fold unless he was holding kk then maybe a shootout but out of character he moves all in for his remaing 36000 making that 44000 utg he bets my friend calls with remaining 18000 and then its showtime and player x shows k-2 both spades and then the flop comes down j-7-3 all spades and the rest is history my friend goes out but to what ? A random decision to suddenly raise then rerasise all in with k-2 spades after folding many many better hands before and after that particular hand and for the flop to randomly come with 3 spades after such a bad play well you tell me how random that was lol and this was a $100 buy in on full tilt.

Like i said we will never agree and i know what i see and what i have stored on my pc and the results don't lie

[irishpkr]

Originally Posted by pokerqueen How can a scenario be random it is a staged event and the outcome is known beforehand

Even if it is a staged event, if the 'stage events' occur randomly at any time, why does it matter? The outcome isnt known by any of the players in any case...

[pokerqueen]

But thats the thing you see the staged event is not occurring randomly at anytime it is hand after hand time after time so no randomness can occur and i admire your persistance you do put up a very good argument and stick to your guns admirable qualitys

I personally love to play online because many many times you can tell what is going to occur and i play for recreational purposes and just love to have a gamble and if i was serious about playing poker i certainly would not play online my personal choice would be live games where you can see everything that is going on right before your very eyes.

Anyway irishpkr i bid you a very good evening and wish you all the best and ty for a very constructive argument take care..

[irishpkr]

I hope you dont think that I'm just 'persistant', you do realise what you are saying is that there are people aware of the turn card before it appears, ie there are people at your table you are playing against that have knowledge of what the unknown cards are?

Do certain things happen more often that others that should appear at equal probabilities? I mean I'm sorry I don't believe your inane argument, but your proof that this situation occurs comes down to 'I feel it'. (Almost as absurd as people giving their life to some religion, but that's another matter ).

The problem with the one 'example' you gave, if we can call it that, is that you are basically claiming the rigness of online poker based on a sample size of, ONE HAND? AA against KK allin pre, I win 4 times in 5, fine, I lose one time in five, fuck my life, poker is rigged.

[pull tha trigga]

i lose more money then win with kk
nearly every 2nd flop shows A or when there are no overs and i fell good with them i get busted by flopped set or runner runner straight or flush...
sometimes really strange what happens there at full tilt
but thats poker isnt it ;-)

[godblessamerica]

some bad beats posted, ill share mine

i was playin 3 tables, 2/4 nl on full tilt few days ago, within 1 minute, i lost all 3 tables with AA, KK, QQ.

table 1, my AA lost to a preflop all in to KK.

table 2, my KK lost to QQ all in preflop.

table 3, my QQ lost to AQ preflop.

note: i was not short stacked in any of these tables, wid more than 200 on each, so they weren't calling on equity.

[shipit1time]

everyone knows this quote: In "Confessions of a Winning Poker Player," Jack King said, "Few players recall big pots they have won, strange as it seems, but every player can remember with remarkable accuracy the outstanding tough beats of his career."

This is true and obviously it's a lot easier to say this when you're playing online as well. Think about it when you're playing live, you see about 25 hands an hour but when you're playing online you can be seeing 500 hands an hour depending on how many tables your playing. That means you're seeing 20 times the beats as you're seeing 20 times the amount of hands. It gets extremely frustrating and we've all been there and talk about how everything is rigged. but think about the actual odds if you are constantly getting your money in and you keep winning, you don't think wow i am running extremely well, you just think that's supposed to happen but the fact of the matter is; you are running good if you never get sucked out on. Michael Jordan shooting a free throw is like having aces percentage wise heads up against a hand, but no one was flipping out and throwing their remote at the tv when he missed, it's just supposed to happen sometimes.

[hottypoly]

you took the words out of my mouth..my husband and i were just saying the same thing yesterday. it can be very frustrating..i've seen some crazy hands on full tilt. i agree 100%. I do find ultimate bet better. it seems more realistic. I've heard of people having trouble with full tilt when they try to withdraw their winnings too...anyway..good luck!

[dew12109]

I've seen worse hands happen at ultimate bet. I have seen crazy hands at full tilt. I've lost with quad 7's at ultimate bet to an all in on the turn for K8 to hit the last 8 on the river (this was in an SnG). I've seen crazy stuff happen at poker nordica, but I've seen the most bad beats at PokerStars. However, I play the most at pokerstars, I am the most profitable at poker stars, and percentage wise, I'm sure the bad beats are about same. The biggest pot I've ever won was on Full Tilt, and that happened when my K6 suited sucked out on AA, it was a cheap flop, and I flopped an open ended straight draw.

I lost my largest pot after flopping a set of Qs and being shoved all in for my opponent to catch runner runner flush.

It's poker, the best hand pre-flop, post-flop, and post-turn doesn't always win. Online poker=more hands per hour, showing more times a suck out happens. It shouldn't be unexpected, and I highly doubt that suckouts happen at a higher percentage from one site to the next.

[EliminateU]

Originally Posted by irishpkr I personally play at Pokerstars, if only there was rakeback with them Even 1000tournies is still a pretty small sample of hands. My point wasnt making mistakes in play, was more giving a leadup to the point that people treat losing differently to winning. You could play a session perfectly and play one hand terribly - the thing you'll remember is that cockup. Same for these 'bad beats' - when you AA against KK allin preflop, and the aces hold, you think nothing of it - "AA SHOULD beat KK!". But KK will win roughly 1in5 times, but you notice them more! It feels like a travesty of justice! How can KK win there!? Just as a totally extreme example, take a massive hurricane somewhere that kills thousands. It happens so rarely, but sticks in people's minds so much. We take for granted that nothing will happen today, but why so? We never think about when a disaster DOESNT happen do we? I guess it's just the way the mind works or something And if you're multitabling online, you're gonna have more 'bad beats' hurtling at you left right and centre. And most of these allin fests are really badbeats at all. I mean something like QQ only beats A9 and TT say, about half the time Re: Absolute, there was a 'superuser' account found, which meant some guy could see people's hole cards, as far as I remember

Your percentages are way off. QQ is 73% vs A9 and 81-83% vs 10-10, not 50-50.

[dew12109]

Originally Posted by EliminateU Your percentages are way off. QQ is 73% vs A9 and 81-83% vs 10-10, not 50-50.

Actually, QQ vs A9 and TT is about a 54.67% favorite. Pretty close to 50% of the time. 54.67 vs 27.97 vs. 17.11