KK - Did I win or lose here

[Squawk]

Just played a short session and one hand annoyed me. I can't make my mind up if I just donked it up good style or saved myself some money here.

I had 43 hands on the villain.
VPIP 7
PFR 2
3 bet 0

On the only hand I've seen him show he had pocket 8's in the big blind and he checked it down all three streets when overcards hit on the flop. He seems passive as all hell. The issue of course is the small hand sample
Full Tilt - $0.05 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

LP: $5.00
CO: $2.37
BTN: $4.53
SB: $6.66
BB: $1.64
UTG: $2.21
UTG+1: $1.75
Hero (MP): $5.12
MP+1: $6.69

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has K K

fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.15, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.35, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.77, 2 players) 2 9 7
Hero bets $0.77, BTN raises to $1.54, fold

BTN wins $2.16



Two lines of thinking here. The first is whether or not I should have 4 bet pre. Every instinct I have says that I should, and I've just been back through my stats for the last month. I've played 22k hands this month. I've had KK and faced a pf 3 bet 14 times, and I've 4 bet or called all in on every occasion until this one. Something stopped me, I couldn't get off the idea that he had AA, and looking at the betting I still can't shake it.

So, am I shit? Or did I make a good fold here? I can't put him on 99 after seeing how he played the hand earlier, so the only hand that beats me is AA, unless I'm being a dunce

[DannyG13]

Completely depends what range you put him on. For example:

Range: Your Equity:

QQ+ 48.61%
QQ+, AsKs 48.99%

This is probably the tightest range you could put him on, basically a 50/50, so shoving would be +EV for the times he folds. Putting him a slightly looser, but easily possible range:

Range: Your Equity:

JJ+, AsKs 60.64%
TT+, AsKs 66.56%

So yeah, as played, im shoving this flop and being happy about it as it's as dry as it gets against his 3bet range.

Even though his stats make him look passive, 43 hands really is so insignificant so i'd take them with a pinch of salt. Especially 'cos at these limits a lot of people tend to severely overplay TT+.

Probably worth noting that you should be 4betting here aaaall day long, especially against a pretty much unknown at these limits. Get the $$ in preflop against this opponent and be happy about it regardless of results.

[travz21]

Checking down 88 when all overcards come doesn't exactly make him passive. And that sample size doesn't really mean anything yet, especially with the stats on the low side. If the stats are like 30/4 after 43 hands that's a different story.

I wouldn't 4bet if you are going by your reads. 4betting might get him to fold everything worse than KK. I also wouldn't donk the flop like that. It's 100% standard to check to the aggressor in a 3bet pot. But I suppose there won't be a ton of cbetting or standard stuff going on at nl5, so maybe leading out gets you more value at this level, I don't know.

After you get minraised it really sucks, but all 3 options (folding, calling, shoving) feel pretty gross. I think I'd just shove since this is the micros and people can always have weird things, plus we don't know if he goes nuts with overpairs postflop. For all we know he could be minraising 88 here since there is only 1 overcard and he feels better about his hand compared to last time he had it lol.

[Squawk]

I'm inclined to agree with you. Don't think this was a massive loser. Everyone says people at this limit shove with shite, but I've just had a look.

Of the 14 hands where I held KK this month and faced a 3 bet, I've called the 3 bet all in or shoved every time bar this once. My results, I'm down $6. Hmmph.

[Max Weiss]

Go broke 100% there in a 3-bet pot. As a side note, you should strongly consider not slowplaying preflop and just 4-betting. If an A comes, you might get beat or lose action from JJ or QQ that would have gotten in preflop. The only hand really worth slowplaying is AA, because no overs can come to hurt you and you can still get action because an A comes far less often. Still, just 4-betting aces is often best as well. There is almost no need for trickiness or balance at a $5nl table.

[iambl_e]

To much analysis. Just 4 Bet and get it in