Now what?

[Squawk]

Decided I'm gonna take a pop at 6max, I suspect it's more my style, I wanna play more flops. So, this was my first session, 1300 hands on a few tables. This was an interesting hand that came up, what to do what to do... halp!

Flop raise was a misclick btw, I meant to make it pot size, failed...

Full Tilt - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $10.93
SB: $3.33
BB: $5.00
Hero (UTG): $5.49
MP: $5.44
CO: $5.46

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has K Q

Hero raises to $0.15, fold, CO calls $0.15, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.37, 2 players) K T 2
Hero checks, CO bets $0.10, Hero raises to $0.35, CO calls $0.25

Turn: ($1.07, 2 players) K
Hero bets $0.80, CO raises to $1.98,

[frob23]

Well, pre-flop is fine... you could raise a little more like pot or 4x until you're comfortable playing OOP 6-max. I typically raise 3x-pot from most spots around the table but I'm fairly confident about where I am at even when OOP. I am also willing to just let a hand go and move on if things turn ugly. Anyway, I guess I would probably raise just a bit more pre-flop mainly because it's not an easy hand to play. On top of that, your UTG hand range should be weighted highly towards value (this would be the bottom of that) and raising more with the entire range will result in more profit in the long run.

Flop... check raise? REALLY? Lead and 3-bet weak raises... bet/fold if the opponent can put in a real raise on this board. Don't check raise on the flop unless you have a really strong reason to. Generally, I reserve my check raising to when I call an open out of position and know that person will c-bet a lot. On a board with a lot of draws like this... just fire. If they're willing to play back at you, just let it go. If you suspect they're playing back light... which takes a lot of history... you can 3-bet bluff on this flop if you suspect they're trying to bluff you off. If you check this flop, you risk him checking behind and hitting a weak flush that he just won't fold... like with a 9... people get silly sometimes.

Check raise size could be larger... but with that board, they fold air to the small raise anyway. If your check raise was meant to be a pure bluff, the size is fine. I actually like the size. My check-raises are typically very small... 3x the bet size in many cases.

Turn bet sizing is fine. I like that... it's large and if you get raised, you know you can fold. He's not raising with a hand you beat. Flush, A-K (especially A-K), and sets that just filled up. This is a simple bet fold spot. You clear out all the naked flush draws with a bet that size and a raise from your opponent clearly defines his hand. If he's bluffing on this board, with that percentage of his stack, good for him.

Fold and move on.

[travz21]

Flop check/raise is bad. Just cbet 70% pot. C/r bloats the pot OOP with a very mediocre hand if they flat or reraise. Cbetting makes the hand straightforward and gets you the most value. I don't even know what I'd do if I played it this way and got raised on the turn. I'd just assume they have a fullhouse already and shove anyways.

[frob23]

Decided I'm gonna take a pop at 6max,

PS: Welcome to the dark side.

[grimReaper]

Flop check/raise is bad. Just cbet 70% pot. C/r bloats the pot OOP with a very mediocre hand if they flat or reraise. Cbetting makes the hand straightforward and gets you the most value. I don't even know what I'd do if I played it this way and got raised on the turn. I'd just assume they have a fullhouse already and shove anyways.

travz good. Read my mind perfectly.

[Squawk]

Well the attempted check raise did have a purpose, this guy was cbetting just about everything, I hoped a pot sized check-raise might induce a fold. Of course after the misclick I'll never know.

I can't get my head around a definite fold turn however.

I figure in this spot he either has a flush or a boat, weighted towards a flush. Maybe 1 in 10 he has AK with the ace of diamonds in hand, but likely not since he called rather than 3bet pre and this was an aggressive table.

It costs me $1:20 to call the turn raise. I know I'm beat, so I have to improve. Playing about with stove I get the following.

If he has a flush already (Ax diamonds), it's 77:23
If he has AK I'm actually worse off, 86:14
If he has TT or 22 I'm 84:16

Most likely of these appears to be the flush IMO, so lets give that slightly more weighting and figure I'm at 80:20

It costs me $1:20 to call a pot of $4. Not enough. But is he going to fold that hand? If I do hit my hand, is anyone seeing an ace high flush folding here at 5nl? We are both more than 100bb deep, if it all goes in the total pot is going to be over $10, giving sufficient implied odds to make this call.

Ok I'll grant you when in the action itself I couldn't do the maths this exact, but my instinct was that $1:20 for a chance at a $10 pot was sufficient implied odds, and I made the call. The issue for me is what chance we give the opponent of getting away from the hand if I hit. At 5nl I rate that at less than 10%.

[frob23]

I don't know but the hands I use to get an 80-20 spot are:

There are 3 combos of TT, 3 combos of 22, 1 combo of AK, 3 other combos of A-K, 2 combos of KQ, 1 combo of KxQ, 3 combos of KT, and there are maybe 10 reasonable combos for the flush (AQ, AJ, A9, A8, QJ, J9, T9, 98, 87, 76 -- maybe more but 10 seems reasonable to me -- especially since I don't know this guy's stats).

10/26 times(flush): K, QQQ, TTT, 222 -- 10 outs to win (3.846 outs)
3/26 times(TT): K, 222, QQQ - 7 outs to win (0.808 outs)
3/26 times(22): K, TTT, QQQ - 7 outs to win (0.808 outs)
4/26 times(AK): QQQ - 3 outs to win (0.615 outs) [TTT, 222 - 6 to tie (0.923)
3/26 times(KT): QQQ - 3 outs to win (0.346)
1/26 times(KxQ): 37 outs to tie (1.423)
2/26 times(KQ): tie (3.538)

So we have 6.423 weighted out to win. And 5.884 to tie... which add 2.942 to our equity. That's 9.365 outs... this lines up with the 80-20 numbers you give. Look at how loose that flush calling range is. I might have a range that wide on the CO against an UTG raiser but most 5nl players shouldn't.

But the problem is... do you see him calling the river shove with 76 after you bet/call the turn and shove the river (on a double paired board 2/3rds of the time)? People are bad at 5NL... but bad enough to call a shove with a flush on a KT2KK/KT2KT/KT2K2 board... even the nut flush can fold there. And lesser flushes can probably find a fold on a KT2KQ board too. Shoving the river looks strong and might induce a lot of folds. You can check but he's going to check behind a lot of stuff -- I doubt he'd even bet the nut flush if the board double paired on the end. You're out of position, you can't be sure the stacks go in on this river. On top of that... you need to make $5.80 for this to be correct... there is $3.85 out there already but making $1.95 more isn't a sure thing. He only has $2.98 left... you would need to stack him (and win) 2/3rds of the time.

This also doesn't account for those times we hit a 2 or a T and find out he rivers quads. Or those times we don't improve but he bets like $0.50 and we call because "he could be doing this with KJ and we beat that" only to discover he wasn't.

I just don't like it. I might be wrong but I just let this one go. In position, I might be more inclined to play just because I get to act last on the river. It's only 23xbb... not tiny but certainly better than 109xbb.

Also, if he's c-betting a lot... and you're going for the c/r to steal on the flop... smaller raise is perfectly fine on a board like this. 30c does the job just as well as 65c most of the time... since we're really only blowing him off his complete air. And one last edit... lol... he can't c-bet here anyway. Since you raised and he just called. That's not a c-bet so be careful you don't make assumptions about his c-bet stats and fold c-bet to raise in situations like this. In some ways, you can expect the numbers to be similar or close... but not with all villains and not in all ways. Just bet the flop... don't check to raise. If he's never folding to a c-bet... I probably still bet here... mostly for value. And why are you turning TPGK into a bluff on the flop anyway? The board is threatening but it's just as bad for him unless he has you crushed. So playing it for a medium value pot is fine.

[Squawk]

Hmm, some good points there. The position seems to be that it's likely a better spot to fold in. Pity I can't stove it properly in the 10 seconds to act... I suppose much depends on the likelyhood of him stacking off with the nut flush/a flush if the board pairs up again, and we have to assign that a lower probability than I did I think.

[frob23]

Well, one of the big things to consider with implied odds is the board texture after you hit your hand. This is the big issue with people over-estimating their implied odds of hitting a flush... since they forget the board will become a lot scarier. A double paired board is pretty scary here. If you had a set and the turn hadn't paired the board, you would have much better implied odds if you filled up on the river.

Also, it occurred to me that we have one "meh" card... lol. Q:diamonds: is pretty blah for us. We fill up but most of the flushes in his range now fold (all except the nut flushes and J-9... and A-J and J-9 just made a straight flush). So he calls with two flushes that we beat but the other two flushes improve to straight flushes and stack us. So the Q:diamonds: isn't that great of a card for us. We're never folding because of that possibility (there's still a lot of value) but it isn't a card where we expect to get as much value as Q:hearts: would provide.

So yeah: K, 2, T, and Q:diamonds: are all cards that make it hard to get maximum value here. There really are only two cards that really give us a good shot at stacking the other player.

Anyway, I am the only one saying fold. LOL

I think travz and grim are both in favor of stacking off on the turn unless they were joking and I missed that.

Edit: And don't stress too much about not being able to make decisions like this at the table. I still have a hard time with it... although I would fold here but only because I've been in this sort of spot a lot and it's always turned out badly when I continued... and even when it wasn't bad, it wasn't ever good enough.

Semi-related story: Twice this month, when 6-8 tabling, I have found myself betting the river on a double paired board with only a straight or flush. LOL... I wasn't paying attention and missed the fact that the river put two pairs up. I am not one to make small river bets either, as you might be aware. So I was thrilled when I got a fold both times. And I swear I am going to be more careful about that in the future. Of course, I swore that right after it happened the first time but somehow I managed to do it again.