One big sign that I've been having a rough session, I start seeing monsters under the bed! Obviously when I flop top set, I'm going to be up against the nut straight all the time, right? 
This player and I have been butting heads for a while. He's a 20/9 with a 3bet of like 3%... but he really hates to fold his blinds (defending 44% of the time). So I consider his range here to be mega-wide. And we're deep. Here's a fun spot I got myself into. He's passive pre-flop but can be aggressive post flop. He's definitely not worried about needing the nuts to move money around but he also seems aware that hand values shrink as the stacks get deeper. I've had him call/check/check down a moderate pot earlier on a J-high flop with T-T.
6 max - Holdem - 5 players
SB: 193.5xbb
BB: 100xbb
UTG: 186xbb
Hero (CO): 290xbb
BTN: 117.5xbb
SB posts SB 0.5xbb, BB posts BB 1xbb
Pre Flop: (1.5xbb) Hero has 7
7
fold, Hero raises to 3.5xbb, fold, SB calls 3xbb, BB calls 2.5xbb
This is pretty standard. The SB is a loose defender, as mentioned already, so I consider his range to be very wide. The BB is tighter and more likely to hold a pair or a couple high cards.
Flop: (10.5xbb, 3 players) 5
7
6 {SPR: 18ish}
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 8xbb, SB raises to 24xbb, fold, Hero calls 16xbb
Well, top set is nice but it's far from the nuts on a flop like this when someone could easily be defending with 98s. For 100xbb, I might just have to go broke to 98s. I might not but I would probably lose a substantial amount. But for almost 200xbb, it's less of a sure thing. I don't want to get all in at this point.
This is probably way over-cautious. Against a player defending such a wide range, the nuts isn't much of it. But how much of that wide range is check-raising this flop? Surely it's not only the nuts (like I said, this player can get aggressive post-flop and knows how to put pressure on people)... besides, it's really hard for me to be very strong on this flop which means he should be check-raising often. He's decent enough, post-flop, to recognize that this is not a good flop for my range.
Turn: (58.5xbb, 2 players) 2
SB bets 37.5xbb, Hero calls 37.5xbb
A blank but I'm still not feeling too great about my hand. Over and over this session I've been coolered and I just feel like this is a spot for it. What else is he raising on the flop? If there was a flush draw, I might see that played aggressively but there's not much else. If the guy had a high pair, he probably would have 3-bet preflop. He's not clueless.
If he checked here, I could assume that he was just attacking my weak range on the flop. But he leads out for about 2/3rds pot. It's a big bet for a bluff. It also has great leverage -- but I think that is incidental. I don't think this player is good enough to realize that he's setting up one pot sized bet left, which is intimidating. If I call this, I have to be prepared for a potential shove. I do make the call. It's probably not a great call but I think there is at least a fair chance that he's attacking my weak range, since this card never helps me, and might give up on the river.
River: (133.5xbb, 2 players) ???
I'll leave the river a mystery for now. But what should I be planning for the river after I call on the turn? The pot's going to be 133.5xbb and the remaining effective stacks are going to be 128.5xbb -- meaning my opponent is perfectly situated for a pot-sized shove. What are good cards for me? What are bad ones? What actions do I want?
Some various rivers/actions to consider.
A
{Opponent shoves, opponent bets 65xbb, opponent checks}
J
{Opponent shoves, opponent bets 65xbb, opponent checks}
Q
{Opponent shoves, opponent bets 65xbb, opponent checks}
8
{Opponent shoves, opponent bets 65xbb, opponent checks}
8
{Opponent shoves, opponent bets 65xbb, opponent checks}
4
{Opponent shoves, opponent bets 65xbb, opponent checks}
6
{Opponent shoves, opponent bets 65xbb, opponent checks}
2
{Opponent shoves, opponent bets 65xbb, opponent checks}
A fun deep hand with top set.
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Originally Posted by travz21
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