KK Overpair at 25NL

[Silent_Ac3s]

First off, in 140 hands this guy seems to be a decent player, running 18/27. He has only folded to 4 out of 15 flop bets, although not many hands here. I've hardly seen him bluff late in a hand. I mainly don't like how the river worked out here. I put most of his range after the flop on 22-QQ, or a Jx type hand. By the time he shoves the river, I feel like I'm crushed against a set, but at the same time I feel fairly committed to the pot. Ideas? Recommendations? Is he bluffing anything here?

Merge - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $38.36
SB: $28.15
BB: $13.59
UTG: $26.86
Hero (MP): $32.95
CO: $25.00

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has K K

UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.10, fold, BTN calls $1.10, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.85

Flop: ($3.65, 3 players) 3 J 2
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.27, BTN calls $2.27, fold

Turn: ($8.19, 2 players) 9
Hero bets $5.36, BTN calls $5.36

River: ($18.91, 2 players) 7
Hero bets $10.95, BTN raises to $29.63 and is all-in

(I had 13.27 left in my stack at this point)

[travz21]

If we're assuming he's good, we're going to have to wonder why he's calling 11/15 flop bets. It could just be variance and he's calling for value all of those times, or it could be that he likes to bluff later in hands on the turn and the river.

Just looking at it that way makes this a pretty easy call. We only need to be right ~20% of the time for our call to be neutral EV.

[jspill]

yeah... i'm never folding here. it's 25nl, you're getting great odds as travz said, and villain coldcalled preflop

18/27

shouldn't that be 27/18? as in VPIP/PFR? if so that's a reasonably large spread, suggesting a lot of coldcalls with marginal hands like AJ etc. in spots he should be folding. It's not that decent of a player imo

Would be nice to see his 3b %. We could rule out AA a decent amount of the time

I'd call and expect to see a badly played AJ, KJs, QQ, or bluff enough of the time to make it profitable. at 25nl it wouldn't be that surprising to see KQ, QJs, QTs, JTs coldcalled from BTN and overplayed postflop

Your river bet isn't that big, from his perspective it looks like he has fold equity with his bluffs since his raise is larger than your bet (recreational players think like this) or that he can safely shove for value with AJ, QQ

Also I think you could bet slightly more on turn, to set up a pot sized river shove, and get more value than when villain calls it off with QQ (a player that would otherwise just flat your 60% pot bet)

results of the hand?

[phaul]

As the others have said, don't fold. If he has AJ and QQ in his range, which he very probably does, given his stats and the fact that it's 25NL, then you are definitely getting over the 20% equity you need.

Also I think you could bet slightly more on turn, to set up a pot sized river shove, and get more value than when villain calls it off with QQ (a player that would otherwise just flat your 60% pot bet)

I don't agree with this at all, to set up up a pot-sized shove you'd have to bet significantly bigger on the turn, which would be terrible imo. I like OP's bet sizing on all streets (although I'd bet round numbers, but that's a style thing).

[Silent_Ac3s]

Thank you for the advice guys! I ended up calling because I knew I only had to be ahead 1 in 5 times. I started to doubt my play once he turned over JJ for trips, but I do agree with you guys that I'll still be ahead 20% of the time here. It was a tougher loss than usual for me because I had just moved up to 25NL and taken a few rough losses in a row.

And oops, I did mean 27/18 for VPIP/PFR! Haha it's been a while since I've posted anything.


BTN shows J J (Three of a Kind, Jacks) (Pre 18%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows K K (One Pair, Kings) (Pre 82%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)
BTN wins $64.35

[jspill]

standard cooler, don't worry about it. take a note on him and play on

gl

[LionCorazon]

First off, in 140 hands this guy seems to be a decent player, running 18/27. He has only folded to 4 out of 15 flop bets, although not many hands here. I've hardly seen him bluff late in a hand. I mainly don't like how the river worked out here. I put most of his range after the flop on 22-QQ, or a Jx type hand. By the time he shoves the river, I feel like I'm crushed against a set, but at the same time I feel fairly committed to the pot. Ideas? Recommendations? Is he bluffing anything here?

Merge - $0.25 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BTN: $38.36
SB: $28.15
BB: $13.59
UTG: $26.86
Hero (MP): $32.95
CO: $25.00

SB posts SB $0.10, BB posts BB $0.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero has K K

UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.10, fold, BTN calls $1.10, fold, fold, UTG calls $0.85

Flop: ($3.65, 3 players) 3 J 2
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.27, BTN calls $2.27, fold

Turn: ($8.19, 2 players) 9
Hero bets $5.36, BTN calls $5.36

River: ($18.91, 2 players) 7
Hero bets $10.95, BTN raises to $29.63 and is all-in

(I had 13.27 left in my stack at this point)

whether he is tight or not the call suggests a speculative hand, perhaps a kqs or aqs ajs maybe pocket qqs or jjs if he thinks you are tight, 10s indeed. higher hand would def reraise. either way u r ahead

calls the continuation so perhaps ajs, hes def not qq or AA now or small pairs. so jj or 1010 or aj or kqs with the 2 overcards and a prayer?


turn... 9 scarecard? not really still right to bet value


Id bet overroundhere, try get it all in...and lose

but u bet timidly..bad

looks like AJ is good now tho

river junk, he wasnt going anywhere so you were all in regardless as I see it arghhhh lol