10NL: CO w/T-9s... I really need a new hobby.

[frob23]

What is sick is that I can defend/justify my play on just about every street of this hand. I think I need to lay down and take a breather. LOL

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

MP1: $18.90
MP2: $9.73
Hero (CO): $31.03
BTN: $10.00
SB: $6.68
BB: $6.57
UTG: $12.51
UTG+1: $26.42
UTG+2: $10.05

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is CO with T 9
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.30, 3 folds, Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.70

Flop: ($2.15) 8 2 8 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $2.15, Hero raises to $5, UTG+1 calls $2.85

Turn: ($12.15) 6 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $8

[travz21]

Reads? Seems spewy otherwise. Obv you can rep QQ+ and barrel down and get an overpair to fold if they are good/logical. I wouldn't be surprised to see people call you down with 99 in this spot though in nl10.

[frob23]

No exact stats because I play without a HUD. UTG+1 was a generally nitty and aggressive player pre-flop. His original opening range isn't huge but includes a lot of hands he's capable of folding to the 3-bet (low pairs and stuff like AJs and KQs). His range for calling the 3-bet is a lot tighter... maybe 88+ and AK. Give or take a few pips on the pairs. At the time I was pretty sure he had JJ+ or AK when he called. I discount AA (but don't remove the possibility) because I've seen him 4-bet that before. Of course that was against a 40xbb stack and it all went in pre-flop.

Post flop, he's aggressive but generally cautious. Building his stack to what it is was not something he did by flipping. In fact, I have never seen this player get all-in. And if he's making large bets or playing in a large pot he usually has a very strong hand. He seems capable of making big laydowns when he suspects he's beat and the pot is getting large.

He is also aware of how I am playing. I have been playing pretty loose in position (maybe 30/26ish from the CO/BTN): generally opening for a raise, raising limpers, or rarely calling a raise... rarely three betting. I am not sure if he was able to put me on a range for each of these actions but I suspect he tried... and assumed the 3-bets were near the top of my hand range. But it's certainly possible I could 3-bet with any pair. The only time a 3-bet has been shown down from me was when I was holding KK. But I have been taking a lot of pots on the flop and turn and rarely getting to showdown. I certainly have the image of being willing to play big pots fairly often but when I have made it to showdown (with large pots 40xbb+), I've always shown very strong hands.

Of course, I was giving this player a lot of credit. But he seemed really solid and observant -- especially for 10nl.

Edit: I should point out that I was rarely 3-betting because this table was excessively weak/passive and it frequently folded to me or had maybe one person limp. Once in a while someone might raise and get called... then I would call in position with a low pair or something like that but for the most part it was folding to me and I'd raise.

[travz21]

Donk bets on the flop are almost always feeler bets that aren't willing to commit stacks. If he called you down with anything less than QQ I'd be surprised.

[travz21]

Stack sizes are awkward for a river shove now though. I guess it would be tough to push an overpair off given the pot odds on river. I'd rather make is 7 on the flop and shove turn.

[frob23]

Stack sizes are awkward for a river shove now though. I guess it would be tough to push an overpair off given the pot odds on river. I'd rather make is 7 on the flop and shove turn.

Stack size is intentional... although a tad larger than I preferred because he had to "pot" the flop... the $8 bet "seems" like a $20 bet to him because he believes the remaining $12 will go in on the river regardless of what he does. I am betting $8 here, he's basically committed to calling the rest of his stack if he calls. I'm not planning on a river shove -- but he doesn't know that. He probably thinks I am and thinks I am insta-calling him if he shoves regardless of what comes on the river. If he calls the $8, he's not folding the hand and I made an expensive run at it. If he finds a check on the river... I check behind and he sees how bad I play. If he shoves... I have to fold (unless I hit my gutterball). If he shoves the turn, I fold there... oh well... no real equity in the call.

I was thinking of making it $4 on the flop... since I expected him to bet around $1.50ish... then $6.50-$7ish on the turn. That's still pretty big but close to the $10 I was aiming to risk on the hand.

My biggest thought going into this hand is that once he puts about $10 in, he's never going to fold whatever he has. But, it's also very unlikely he'll put in $10... especially if he's not the aggressor.

Obviously, I really don't want a call on the turn here but based on his previous behavior... I really think there's some hope. My biggest worry is AA. Because this board is just way too dry for me to have hit a set... or so he might think... and he might have to call with AA. I expect him to be capable of folding QQ or KK here. I am pretty sure about QQ... I can see him playing the flop with QQ... but there's no way this player is going to risk 200xbb with only QQ. With AA, I expect a 4-bet pre-flop or a reraise on the flop though... so it seems really unlikely.

[hockeyguy]

Stack size is intentional... although a tad larger than I preferred because he had to "pot" the flop... the $8 bet "seems" like a $20 bet to him because he believes the remaining $12 will go in on the river regardless of what he does. I am betting $8 here, he's basically committed to calling the rest of his stack if he calls. I'm not planning on a river shove -- but he doesn't know that. He probably thinks I am and thinks I am insta-calling him if he shoves regardless of what comes on the river. If he calls the $8, he's not folding the hand and I made an expensive run at it. If he finds a check on the river... I check behind and he sees how bad I play. If he shoves... I have to fold (unless I hit my gutterball). If he shoves the turn, I fold there... oh well... no real equity in the call.

I was thinking of making it $4 on the flop... since I expected him to bet around $1.50ish... then $6.50-$7ish on the turn. That's still pretty big but close to the $10 I was aiming to risk on the hand.

My biggest thought going into this hand is that once he puts about $10 in, he's never going to fold whatever he has. But, it's also very unlikely he'll put in $10... especially if he's not the aggressor.

Obviously, I really don't want a call on the turn here but based on his previous behavior... I really think there's some hope. My biggest worry is AA. Because this board is just way too dry for me to have hit a set... or so he might think... and he might have to call with AA. I expect him to be capable of folding QQ or KK here. I am pretty sure about QQ... I can see him playing the flop with QQ... but there's no way this player is going to risk 200xbb with only QQ. With AA, I expect a 4-bet pre-flop or a reraise on the flop though... so it seems really unlikely.

I hate to be too harsh, but this is a perfect example of why people cant/dont beat and/or crush 10nl/25nl/50nl games

Preflop-3 betting a nit pfr from utg/utg+1 w/ 9ts is just a bad play at 10nl, period

Flop- true the donk bet is usually a feeler bet, but when donk better calls a flop raise from a preflop 3 bettor he is never folding, so any additional action by 9Ts is just bad play, no matter how hard you try to justify it or convince yourself

to think any player is folding QQ(unrealistically hopeful) or KK (delusional) here is not based on reality at 10nl, it even seems you think a 10nl player might consider a laydown w/ AA fearing a set, you are playing 10nl donkeys not Phil Ivey. The players at 10nl are playing their cards, in general they fold when they dont have a hand not because they read their opponents hand, since they almost never consider their opponents cards they will not fold to any clever sized turn or river bet.

As to this hand you can expect to be called down on a 828 rainbow flop by virtually any pocket pair here depending on the player. However after the opponent called a preflop 3 bet and a flop raise, they most likely have an overpair and will never fold it at 10nl (or any other level for that matter), so any more action by 9T is just silly.

in general the entire post mortem analysis is way too focused on higher level thought than 10nl opponents understand or attempt employ. It assumes 10nl opponents play and act based on anything other than their hand. Even if/when they consider their opponents hand they dont have the discipline to act correctly.

the way to crush nits at micro nl games with 9Ts hands is to play them multiway in position and stack the nits when you hit flop hard, not by 3 betting them

The bottom line is the way to beat/crush these games is to make better hands and value bet. It is ABC poker PERIOD END OF STORY.

3 betting in 10nl games should be almost 100% restricted to punishing laggy raiser with hands that have the lags range dominated, value raising big hands jj+ AK, and punishing loose blind stealers by defending aggressively w/ 3 bets. The 3 bet w 9Ts in this hand fits none of those categories and is just a bad play.

hockeyguy

[frob23]

Ah but I am beating 10nl, and 25nl for that matter. And in this situation the player does manage to find the fold button... much like I was expecting.

There are rare people at 10nl who are trying to play "right" and/or fear playing for stack too much. They are, by far, a very rare group but they do exist. After about 400-500 hands with this player, I was fairly confident that he was one of them.

You are right. The vast majority of your money comes from going to value town at these levels. And I'm certainly not better off for playing like this. But it sure is a hell of a lot of fun.

[hockeyguy]

i totally get the fun of a big bluff at aany stake level
no worries if you know the risk and congrats on the play
it definitely shows the importance on knowing the opponent
i just wanted to point out it is not a play you want to make
too often or against most opponents at lower stakes

i didnt mean to sound like an A hole
i probably shouldnt post after a few drinky poos-lol

[frob23]

Not a problem. I didn't really point out that I had several hundred hands of observation on the guy or that I had seen him make some pretty obvious laydowns as well as miss some major value-bets on the river because the pot was pretty big and the river card brought a very unlikely (but possible) nut hand. In one example, he turned the nut flush after betting the flop (I think he had AQs and the flop was Q-Xs-Xs or something like that) and the opponent called the turn bet then the river paired the middle card from the flop. His opponent checked and he checked behind... the pot was like 100xBB-ish and both players had started with 100... so it was very likely the rest of the money could have got in. Opponent showed the J-high flush and lost. The nit commented, "Well, I can't bet there because you're only calling with a full house." Uhm... yeah.

He constantly worried about monsters under the bed... and I figured that eventually I would try and take advantage of that. You have to love player notes. It's also good to pay attention to the chat when someone basically tells you one of their biggest weaknesses.