200NL - to call or not to call

[pinnie]

This was kinda tough spot while ago. Button is kinda loose preflop and can be tricky before and after flop.

Well, I am kinda loose too, so dont worry about my preflop play

Here is the hand:

$200 NL Texas Hold'em - Tuesday, November 22, 08:43:45 EDT 2005
Table Table 65564 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 2: eggym3 ( $990.65 )
Seat 3: Hero ( $570.20 )
Seat 5: Zvitorepko ( $442.59 )
Seat 6: chaseg22 ( $668.86 )
Seat 1: SloppyGame ( $474.90 )
Seat 4: henry122467 ( $86.60 )
trucker_ posts small blind [ $1 ].
henry122467 posts big blind [ $2 ].

Holecards:
Dealt to Hero [37 ]
FOLD Zvitorepko
RAISE chaseg22, $7
CALL SloppyGame, $7
CALL eggym3, $7
CALL Hero, $6
FOLD henry122467

Flop: (Pot: $30)
[63Q ]
CHECK Hero
CHECK chaseg22
CHECK SloppyGame
CHECK eggym3

Turn: (Pot: $30)
[ 3]
BET Hero , $25
FOLD chaseg22
FOLD SloppyGame
RAISE eggym3, $75
CALL Hero , $50

River: (Pot: $180)
[2 ]
CHECK Hero
BET eggym3, $300
Hero?

What does button have and how propable is it that Im beat. All comments are welcome. I will post results later.

Cheers,

Pinnie

[John]

Interesting play, and without looking too far into it I would hazard a guess that the button had the remaining 3 or had made 2 pair and gotten over enthusiastic. He could have made a full house, though...

Checking round the table with a pair of 3's is probably the wisest move for both of you, and once you had made 3-of-a-kind you had full rights to bet. For eggy to come back over the top of you would suggest he has either made 3-of-a-kind or perhaps two pairs.

The big bet at the turn would suggest one of two things - either he had a 3 and a 2 in the hand and had made a full house, or had gotten worried considering you had called him confidently after the turn.

Your hand isn't fantastic, but judging by what was on the board I would have to say he'd have either: 2 pair (unlikely, I wouldn't stake over $300 on two pairs with that many round the table), 3-of-a-kind threes or made his full house on the river.

I may have got this drastically wrong, he might be a professional who played it cool from the flop or he might be a fish who thought a pair of 3's on the board was enough

[winningedge]

well, the only hands I can see that could beat you are the set of {22, 66, 36, 32, 3Q and QQ}, making I think 39 possible combinations of hands that can beat you. 36 and 32 would be pretty crazy calls on that raise, as would Q3, so that seems to leave us with pockets only.. so it seems that if you were beat, he almost certainly had caught a set

he didnt raise preflop, but somoene else did and he called, so its possible he could be sititng on QQ or 66, and he might or might not reraise with QQ.. the pot was pretty big by the time it got to him, so a reraise would have to be pretty large, and he might play it cheap since he has position also.. checking the flop and reraising on the turn looks a whole lot like a trap play, but on the river he comes out and bets 2x the pot

hes got to know you had the trip 3s though from the way the betting went, I cant see him putting you on any other hand.. I think he had either 66 or QQ, and was hoping you would call off a large bet on the river with trips in your hand

[winningedge]

arg.. I've been putitng this off for a while, but everytime I come to this forum I'm hoping to find out what happened with this hand.. pinnie you're killing me here

[pinnie]

Buttons call after a raise and cold call could be almost anything because he is the button and has the position on rest of us through the rest of the hand. I thought he would have small to medium pair, suited connectors, suited ace or maybe two high cards not ak or aq.

He propably would have bet trips to get some money into pot or if he would have had a queen or a six or other pair bigger than six he would have bet to protect his hand so I ruled those hands out. If he had OESD with 45 he would have bet that as a semibluff.

After he raised me on turn most propable holding was ace of spades with other spade in hand or 45. My bet might have looked that I was trying to buy the pot and he raised me as a semibluff.

I decided to see the last card by just calling and if the river card was not spade I would pay any bet he makes. River card was 2:diamon: so now I could lose to 45 which just made a straight or he had total air. I lived to my decision and checked to him to look weak and induce bluff, which worked perfectly.

He had busted flush draw, A5.

[Sabrina]

Awesome!! I had him on Spades. He completely overbetted at the end. Great play!!

[AcesCrackedAgain]

Damn! I wish you would've have waited til tomorrow to post the outcome. I was going to say he either had the busted draw or a Q. The over bet on the river was a dead giveaway. He was trying to represent a fullhouse to get you to lay down the hand. Ok, give us another please.

[kelkat]

That was fun, and interesting how everyone walked through the process. I learned quite a bit about how different people view different siturations. I look forward to more of these!

[honest99]

Since I have no read what so ever on the loose player I would use math to decide wether to call.
He could have a straigt, a broken flush draw or basically anything in my point of view.

A bet of 300 to a 180 pot needs to be called or raised at least 180 / (180 + 300) = 37.5% percent of the time to not allow profitable stealing of the pot. Now what possible hands could YOU have at this point? Just pick the say 40% of your best hands to call or raise. Again I have no idea what hands you play like this up to this point, but since you are loose it's clear that your current hand is among the 40% best once. So you have to at least call. Should you raise? Well I don't see any profit in raising. He would not fold a better hand easily and I doubt that he would call or bluff again with a broken flush or something else. My answer would be... CALL.