A *REALLY* tough spot

[powrdragn]

i posted this hand on a different board a couple of months ago. I found those boards to be less friendly and am canceling my memberhsip. don't ask the name though, as I'm not one to bash.

However, this hand was very interesting. It's one that I often think about and figured I would post it here for good discussion. And besides, I think typing in a hurry, I got some of the story out of order. Regardless, there is some good discussion to be had:




I was playing in a huge $1-$2 pot limit game at our local club. The game was playing a lot like a $2-$5 or a $5-$10 game. At one point there was nearly $10K on the table, which is just dumb at these limits.

Anyway I get into this hand with the guy that is the big stack at the table. He's got about $1500 in front of him and I started thehand with about $900. I'm only into the game for $400 at this point. The game is 8-handed.

I have: 5h5s

The game has a $5 straddle which gets called by UTG+1. I raise to $25 from UTG +2. I get three callers.

Flop: Th 4c 5d

I'm first to act and bet $100. Action folds to the villain and he thinks for about a minute and then calls. The others fold.

Turn: Td

I bet $200.

On the turn I when he hesitated, looked dejected, and gave the, "I have to call," I immediately assumed he was on QT or JT. He was putting me on AT or KT and figured he was outkicked. We'd each built our stack by staying out of each other's way. There was only one other player that was getting equal respect from either of us.

River: Qs

I bet $200 more. The villain looks me in the eye and says "all-in."

The Villain had been playing relatively tight and had slowly earned his stack. He's one of the few players I was giving any real respect too. And I was only showing down big hands, so he knew I wouldn't fire $200 on a bluff without something big. And in all reality, he was see it as the value-bet that it was.




What do you do here?

After some discussion, I'll explai my actions and thoughts behind them. Everyone seems to have an interesting take on the scenario.

[liladypokerpro]

I don't know, maybe I am completely off, but I am just curious about one thing here...You raised the $5 straddle bet to $25, and the villain was one of the callers of this bet...he didn't re-raise...just called, right? You also said the villain had earned your respect as a tight player, so I think you really have to ask yourself, can you really put him on QT here after he called a decent raise pre-flop? I've heard Phil Gordon among others say never to fold on the river if there are a good number of hands you can legitimately beat, and I think I'd have to side with his opinion on this one. I couldn't really put villain on QT here...trip 10s, sure, but not the river full house...the board is not paired except for the 10s, so the only other hand I'd be concerned about would be QQ in his hand if he is indeed as tight as you've forseen him to be, but then without a re-raise preflop, I'd question that. Pocket 10s also possible, but not as likely. I don't know, I think I'd have to see it. It's hard to say not having played against this fellow personally.

[powrdragn]

That's a pretty good way to analyze the hand. Several people I've spoken to agree with your perspective.

The only reason I tried to put him on JT/QT is that he didn't look real excited preflop and my assumption was that he might have played them suited with position. The Villain was in the cutoff if I my memory serves correctly.

And he had that look on the call like he was resigned to his fate if he were outkicked. He also had a large chip stack that he might hav ebeen willing to gamble with.

There were a ton of factors to consider. And of course, there are all the standard odds calculations. And to be completely honest, this was the longest I ever took to make a decision. I took almost five minutes to play it all out in my head and come to a decision.

I'll still reserve the conclusion until we get further speculation.

[liladypokerpro]

The only reason I tried to put him on JT/QT is that he didn't look real excited preflop and my assumption was that he might have played them suited with position. The Villain was in the cutoff if I my memory serves correctly.

And he had that look on the call like he was resigned to his fate if he were outkicked. He also had a large chip stack that he might have been willing to gamble with.

Hmmm...well many times a good player (like this one appears to be from your description) could probably win an acting award if given the chance...looking a certain way doesn't necessarily mean one thing or another...I can act weak with the best of them, being strong the entire time, and vice versa. Granted, I'd take note of his reaction as information, but also I'd take it with a grain of salt...but I'm sure you already know that Just saying...that would be my thoughts on it.

[rakmupagain]

There is no doubt in my mind if he's a good tight player as you say that he has pocket 10s and made quads. Mainly because of voluntarily giving u information, please, in the middle of ahand whos doin that with vulnerable hand. I would still call jsut because of size of pot, but your beat, no doubt. Cry and call. This is a very similar situation to the negreanu hanson hand on HSP.

The ONLY hand u can beat in this spot that makes sense (barely) is pocket 4's.
I might also play the hand as he did with 6d7d. Think about how the hand went down start to finish. Might be a desperation bluff, knowing u can fold alot of hands here. He mighta said what he did to slow you down if he had 6d7d as well, giving off a false tell on purpose, this scenario would make the eye to eye contact likely.


Long story short
guess #1 (1010) seems to obvious tho
guess #2 (6d7d)
guess #3 (4 4)
guess what u have to call really, no matter what u think. One more reason to have a bankroll.

The list above of hands u can beat and cant beat is hogwash. most of them are not in range of player described. Going thru the deck for every possibilty is not a range.

[Fictive]

Given that the player gave you a lot of respect and likewise, and you had shown some strong hands earlier, I seriously doubt he had QT. Given that he was tight player, he probably had a pocket pair, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, or AA. He only called your pre-flop bet, so we could probably leave out aces or kings at least. I think he had either TT or QQ, but you have to call his all-in with a full house, simply because you were pretty much pot committed, and there still are tons of hands you could beat, in case your read was off.

[Fictive]

lol, I started my post while you were posting the results... Oh well, the QT did catch me by surprise. More or less, I did think you were beat, but definetely not with QT, but a pocket pair. Unfortunately, the same result in the end in for you.

[DaGreenster]

what are you doing raising utg+2 to 25 with 55?

[Jonathank]

yeah right. and next you're gonna tell me you laid down quads on the river to higher quads. i suppose you would fold the ass end of a strait flush if someone moved in on you too. give me a break.

[powrdragn]

Hmmm...well many times a good player (like this one appears to be from your description) could probably win an acting award if given the chance...looking a certain way doesn't necessarily mean one thing or another...I can act weak with the best of them, being strong the entire time, and vice versa. Granted, I'd take note of his reaction as information, but also I'd take it with a grain of salt...but I'm sure you already know that Just saying...that would be my thoughts on it.

I discounted that pretty early. I know that I can personally look interested to disinterested in a hand and whatnot. He's not quite that good. He's mostly an ABC kinda guy.

In a really strange scenario, he could know this and then purposely try to use that against me, but it had been a long session, so I doubt he was going to try and get THAT creative at this stage of the game.

This guy is pretty straight forward though. And he's not the type to put his money in like that unless he has a really big hand.

[Ase Ce7en]

I'd definately call. You were only in the game for $400 and you've already commited $525 to the pot. Can you really fold a boat with $525 in and only $375 left in your stack, even if you THINK you might be beat. I think he would make this move with AA, KK, AT, KT or anything. In my opinion, it's a must call with only $375 left in your stack.

[gamer4life27]

Sorry, but I can not put this guy on a 10. At most, he might have a pocket pair. You don't know if he hit that pair, or if he only has two pair. But I can not put someone on a 10 there. There is over $600 in the pot ($607 to be exact) before he says 'all-in', and after you make your last bet of $200. He has about $1k behind him, and you have only about $400 behind you. You are basically pot committed here. You are putting in $400 to win over $1,000. Here are the hands that beat you (not thinking of combinations):

10 10
Q Q
Q 10
10 5
10 4

Hands you can beat (not including combinations):
AA
KK
JJ
99
88
77
66
44
33
22
ANY Ace (meaning A K, A Q, A J, etc.)
ANY King
ANY Queen (besides Q 10)
ANY Jack
ANY 10 (besides Q 10, 10 5, 10 4)
I don't think he would have anything lower than a 10 high.

Basically, you have WAY more hands that you can beat, than beat you. When he looked you in the eye right before he went all-in, I would read that as a tell. He is trying to act strong, so he really is weak. He is trying to intimidate you into pushing you off your hand. I would call here.

[Boilermaker]

i think you're almost pot committed and have to call. I'm gonna say by his actions he had 1010. just my gut feeling.
I think the only way you win tho, is if he misreads your bet on flop...thinking no way you flopped a set and lead of betting...and puts u on say JJ..him calling with 2 over cards like AQs..catching a Q on river and thinkin he out drew you and going over the top.

[powrdragn]

It's definitely these types of hands that make poker interesting. I will let you know that I ultimately made the mathematically wrong decision, but it was the right game decision.

All of what you guys have said has some pretty good logic to it. And most of it when through my head in my five minutes of thought. Here's how my thought process finally broke down:

I play with this semi-regularly, and I know what he's capable of. And today, he was playing really well. He wasn't letting chips go lightly. So, I was pretty sure there was no way he was bluffing on the river.

This also meant that it was extremely likely that he made a hand on the river or he wouldn't push like that. And remember, I'm pretty sure at this point that he pretty sure I have a ten as well.

The river card doesn't make a flush or a straight possible, so that also takes away any type of situation that looks good for a bluff.

And that's where I went into the tank for a long time.

I'd convinced myself that he had AT LEAST three tens. I just had to figure out if it were stronger than that. Then there was always the chance that I misread his body language and statement on the turn. Maybe he had QQ and felt bad because his queens had gotten run down and then filled on the river. If so, I couldn't beat that.

Then of course, there was always the possibility that he thought I was bluffing or that I had a weaker ten than he had and he was willing to make a stand.

But ultimately, I was holding the 6th best hand in an 8-handed game. But, once this thought came up, I figured he could only have played three hands to a preflop raise that potentially beat me here (QTs,QQ,TT).

The other reality is that with any hand that's not the 1st or 2nd nuts in his position, check, call or fold are all much better options than raising. Consider the image that I built up plus the fact that I bet at every chance.

But, as gamer4life27 pointed out, there are way more hands that I beat, than hands I lose to. So, that make it hard to fold.

My hand also improved from a pair, to a set, and a boat and I laid a bet at every street. I'd commited a lotta chips to the pot at this point. There wasn't a lot of equity in folding here. A call only has to be correct a very small percentage of the time here to be correct.


So, ultimately, what the discussion comes down to is do you trust your reads/instinct or do you simply make the systematically "correct" call?

I think on the turn, my instinct took over as I'd pretty much told myself that if any card that's not a J or Q comes on the river, I'm making a big bet. If a J or Q shows up, I'm making a small value/feeler bet.

So, sadly after five minutes of deliberation, I folded. I later admited to one of buddies that I'm likely making that same laydown if he makes a similar play with a J on the river.

And as it turns out, he showed a QsTs.

I generally try not to be too results oriented. But, it was the first time that I was stuck in a situation where my instincts were pushing me in a position completely contradictory to the proper odds/math. And like I said, I'd have made a similar laydown if a J comes on the river.

I don't think that my play was correct or even optimal on a street by street basis. I think it was far from terrible, but it probably could have been better.

It's a strange feeling to lay down a huge hand like that, save a lot of money, but still not feel right about it in the end.

[liladypokerpro]

Well in a case where you know your opponent well, instincts always come into play. Like I said earlier, it is hard to say how I'd react to your situation without having physically been IN it, or knowing the player more in depth. So bravo on your gut read and the result.

[citizenfish]

lesse, we have 900 to start.

flop 100 we have 875 left, we bet 100

turn pot is 300 we have 775 left, we bet 200

river pot is 700 and we have 575 left we bet 200 and fold for 375?

after his shove pot is 700+200+375=1275.

2 things

1. why dont we just shove this river. we have like a perfect amount left.
2. i wouldnt ever fold here like, ever. of course, i would be jamming the river every single time, so this spot wouldnt exist.

why did you bet the 200 if you were going to fold for 400 more in a 1300 pot?

edit - also lol @ the guy that posted "I'm sure he had quad 10s"

[gamer4life27]

And as it turns out, he showed a QsTs.

I'm sorry, but I can not put a tight player on that hand. Even though it was the right lay down, and given all the before hand playing, I would have put him on Qs 10s. If he is playing those hands, then he really isn't a tight player. He is a semi-tight player, or not very loose player. Hands like Q 10 have really scary options on the flop.

I say this, because someone could EASILY beat you. Such as (group 1) A Q, K Q, Q J, A 10, K 10, (group 2) AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 10 10. If they have any of the hands of from group 1, then you have one live card that you need to catch. If they have a group two hand, you are really behind and NEED to catch cards.

Knowing this, tight players won't usually play these king of hands just for that reason. Even if they were suited, and had position, you always run the risk of running into a bigger hand, bigger kicker, or being out flopped. You have to have the right flop with Q 10 (suited or not) in order to feel comfortable with your hand. If you paired just one of your cards, you are always thinking to yourself if you are out kicked. And most of the time, you are.

But like I said before, since you said he was a tight player, I would have put him on A 10, AA, KK, or 44. And given that last action by him (looking you in the eye before the all-in), I would have called him. If he had me beat, show him how far behind he was on the flop, and make him re-decide if his actions were right.

Now, players who are not so tight, or not so loose (just normal players) would play these hands in position. He was in the CO, and wanted to see if the flop connected with his hand.

Him calling on the flop and turn was a bad part by him. He did have top pair, but with a not so good kicker. Your bet should have told him he was behind. And when you bet again on the turn, he had to call because he hit trips. Again, he was scared of behind out kicked (why tight players don't play this hand). But it was just a lucky river card for him to suck out on you.

So basically, it was a mix of him making a gutsy call, being perceived as a tight player, and calling all the way down till the river to get lucky that won him the pot. And in that hand alone, you lost all your profits and was down to your starting stack with huge stacks around you. And, you just gave a tight player a LOAD of chips, which is VERY dangerous. I would have bet pot on the turn and/or the flop instead of less than the pot. You want to go all in before the river because you are pot committed. And, if you went all-in/bet pot sooner than the river, he might have laid down the hand and you would have won the pot right there.

[Jonathank]

dude, get real. this was simply a score board decision. you bought in for 400 and folding the nuts enabled you to walk away even. it's not any more complicated than that.

[powrdragn]

gamer4life27, I think you have the situation about right. If I had moved in on the turn, he likely would hae folded and I could have taken it down there.

I think at the time, I slowed up a bit and was hoping he would call or come over the top. He did call, but his hesitation said he either had something like QT, JT or he had a big overpair AA,KK,QQ and was worried he'd goten run down.

But I have to agree. The biggest mistake I made in the hand was not forcing the issue on the turn.

And to Jonathank, I'm not bragging about a big laydown here in any way. If anything I'm disappointed. I messed of the hand. I lost money bt getting rivered after betting every street. And I had to make a fundamentaly incorrect play to keep from going broke in the hand.

I'm glad I didn't go broke. But I'm definitely not happy about the hand at all. As for leaving even, well, I wasn't honestly worried about that. I play enough at this location that I wasn't worry about my immediate gain/loss. I'm up pretty significantly at this location, so losing my chips wouldn't really have mattered to me. Don't get me wrong. I like to win as much as the next guy, but it wouldn't have been that distressing.

I think you're missing the point of this thread entirely. I'm not here saying, "hey looka t me, I can make amazing laydowns." I'm simply putting this type of situation out here to discuss. I couldn't care less if everyone thinks I'm a clown for the fold. Like I said before, I'm not even happy with myself over the whole damn hand.

I just think the whole thing makes for interesting discussion.