A *REALLY* tough spot

[powrdragn]

i posted this hand on a different board a couple of months ago. I found those boards to be less friendly and am canceling my memberhsip. don't ask the name though, as I'm not one to bash.

However, this hand was very interesting. It's one that I often think about and figured I would post it here for good discussion. And besides, I think typing in a hurry, I got some of the story out of order. Regardless, there is some good discussion to be had:




I was playing in a huge $1-$2 pot limit game at our local club. The game was playing a lot like a $2-$5 or a $5-$10 game. At one point there was nearly $10K on the table, which is just dumb at these limits.

Anyway I get into this hand with the guy that is the big stack at the table. He's got about $1500 in front of him and I started thehand with about $900. I'm only into the game for $400 at this point. The game is 8-handed.

I have: 5h5s

The game has a $5 straddle which gets called by UTG+1. I raise to $25 from UTG +2. I get three callers.

Flop: Th 4c 5d

I'm first to act and bet $100. Action folds to the villain and he thinks for about a minute and then calls. The others fold.

Turn: Td

I bet $200.

On the turn I when he hesitated, looked dejected, and gave the, "I have to call," I immediately assumed he was on QT or JT. He was putting me on AT or KT and figured he was outkicked. We'd each built our stack by staying out of each other's way. There was only one other player that was getting equal respect from either of us.

River: Qs

I bet $200 more. The villain looks me in the eye and says "all-in."

The Villain had been playing relatively tight and had slowly earned his stack. He's one of the few players I was giving any real respect too. And I was only showing down big hands, so he knew I wouldn't fire $200 on a bluff without something big. And in all reality, he was see it as the value-bet that it was.




What do you do here?

After some discussion, I'll explai my actions and thoughts behind them. Everyone seems to have an interesting take on the scenario.

[liladypokerpro]

I don't know, maybe I am completely off, but I am just curious about one thing here...You raised the $5 straddle bet to $25, and the villain was one of the callers of this bet...he didn't re-raise...just called, right? You also said the villain had earned your respect as a tight player, so I think you really have to ask yourself, can you really put him on QT here after he called a decent raise pre-flop? I've heard Phil Gordon among others say never to fold on the river if there are a good number of hands you can legitimately beat, and I think I'd have to side with his opinion on this one. I couldn't really put villain on QT here...trip 10s, sure, but not the river full house...the board is not paired except for the 10s, so the only other hand I'd be concerned about would be QQ in his hand if he is indeed as tight as you've forseen him to be, but then without a re-raise preflop, I'd question that. Pocket 10s also possible, but not as likely. I don't know, I think I'd have to see it. It's hard to say not having played against this fellow personally.

[powrdragn]

That's a pretty good way to analyze the hand. Several people I've spoken to agree with your perspective.

The only reason I tried to put him on JT/QT is that he didn't look real excited preflop and my assumption was that he might have played them suited with position. The Villain was in the cutoff if I my memory serves correctly.

And he had that look on the call like he was resigned to his fate if he were outkicked. He also had a large chip stack that he might hav ebeen willing to gamble with.

There were a ton of factors to consider. And of course, there are all the standard odds calculations. And to be completely honest, this was the longest I ever took to make a decision. I took almost five minutes to play it all out in my head and come to a decision.

I'll still reserve the conclusion until we get further speculation.

[Ase Ce7en]

I'd definately call. You were only in the game for $400 and you've already commited $525 to the pot. Can you really fold a boat with $525 in and only $375 left in your stack, even if you THINK you might be beat. I think he would make this move with AA, KK, AT, KT or anything. In my opinion, it's a must call with only $375 left in your stack.

[gamer4life27]

Sorry, but I can not put this guy on a 10. At most, he might have a pocket pair. You don't know if he hit that pair, or if he only has two pair. But I can not put someone on a 10 there. There is over $600 in the pot ($607 to be exact) before he says 'all-in', and after you make your last bet of $200. He has about $1k behind him, and you have only about $400 behind you. You are basically pot committed here. You are putting in $400 to win over $1,000. Here are the hands that beat you (not thinking of combinations):

10 10
Q Q
Q 10
10 5
10 4

Hands you can beat (not including combinations):
AA
KK
JJ
99
88
77
66
44
33
22
ANY Ace (meaning A K, A Q, A J, etc.)
ANY King
ANY Queen (besides Q 10)
ANY Jack
ANY 10 (besides Q 10, 10 5, 10 4)
I don't think he would have anything lower than a 10 high.

Basically, you have WAY more hands that you can beat, than beat you. When he looked you in the eye right before he went all-in, I would read that as a tell. He is trying to act strong, so he really is weak. He is trying to intimidate you into pushing you off your hand. I would call here.

[Boilermaker]

i think you're almost pot committed and have to call. I'm gonna say by his actions he had 1010. just my gut feeling.
I think the only way you win tho, is if he misreads your bet on flop...thinking no way you flopped a set and lead of betting...and puts u on say JJ..him calling with 2 over cards like AQs..catching a Q on river and thinkin he out drew you and going over the top.

[liladypokerpro]

The only reason I tried to put him on JT/QT is that he didn't look real excited preflop and my assumption was that he might have played them suited with position. The Villain was in the cutoff if I my memory serves correctly.

And he had that look on the call like he was resigned to his fate if he were outkicked. He also had a large chip stack that he might have been willing to gamble with.

Hmmm...well many times a good player (like this one appears to be from your description) could probably win an acting award if given the chance...looking a certain way doesn't necessarily mean one thing or another...I can act weak with the best of them, being strong the entire time, and vice versa. Granted, I'd take note of his reaction as information, but also I'd take it with a grain of salt...but I'm sure you already know that Just saying...that would be my thoughts on it.

[rakmupagain]

There is no doubt in my mind if he's a good tight player as you say that he has pocket 10s and made quads. Mainly because of voluntarily giving u information, please, in the middle of ahand whos doin that with vulnerable hand. I would still call jsut because of size of pot, but your beat, no doubt. Cry and call. This is a very similar situation to the negreanu hanson hand on HSP.

The ONLY hand u can beat in this spot that makes sense (barely) is pocket 4's.
I might also play the hand as he did with 6d7d. Think about how the hand went down start to finish. Might be a desperation bluff, knowing u can fold alot of hands here. He mighta said what he did to slow you down if he had 6d7d as well, giving off a false tell on purpose, this scenario would make the eye to eye contact likely.


Long story short
guess #1 (1010) seems to obvious tho
guess #2 (6d7d)
guess #3 (4 4)
guess what u have to call really, no matter what u think. One more reason to have a bankroll.

The list above of hands u can beat and cant beat is hogwash. most of them are not in range of player described. Going thru the deck for every possibilty is not a range.

[powrdragn]

It's definitely these types of hands that make poker interesting. I will let you know that I ultimately made the mathematically wrong decision, but it was the right game decision.

All of what you guys have said has some pretty good logic to it. And most of it when through my head in my five minutes of thought. Here's how my thought process finally broke down:

I play with this semi-regularly, and I know what he's capable of. And today, he was playing really well. He wasn't letting chips go lightly. So, I was pretty sure there was no way he was bluffing on the river.

This also meant that it was extremely likely that he made a hand on the river or he wouldn't push like that. And remember, I'm pretty sure at this point that he pretty sure I have a ten as well.

The river card doesn't make a flush or a straight possible, so that also takes away any type of situation that looks good for a bluff.

And that's where I went into the tank for a long time.

I'd convinced myself that he had AT LEAST three tens. I just had to figure out if it were stronger than that. Then there was always the chance that I misread his body language and statement on the turn. Maybe he had QQ and felt bad because his queens had gotten run down and then filled on the river. If so, I couldn't beat that.

Then of course, there was always the possibility that he thought I was bluffing or that I had a weaker ten than he had and he was willing to make a stand.

But ultimately, I was holding the 6th best hand in an 8-handed game. But, once this thought came up, I figured he could only have played three hands to a preflop raise that potentially beat me here (QTs,QQ,TT).

The other reality is that with any hand that's not the 1st or 2nd nuts in his position, check, call or fold are all much better options than raising. Consider the image that I built up plus the fact that I bet at every chance.

But, as gamer4life27 pointed out, there are way more hands that I beat, than hands I lose to. So, that make it hard to fold.

My hand also improved from a pair, to a set, and a boat and I laid a bet at every street. I'd commited a lotta chips to the pot at this point. There wasn't a lot of equity in folding here. A call only has to be correct a very small percentage of the time here to be correct.


So, ultimately, what the discussion comes down to is do you trust your reads/instinct or do you simply make the systematically "correct" call?

I think on the turn, my instinct took over as I'd pretty much told myself that if any card that's not a J or Q comes on the river, I'm making a big bet. If a J or Q shows up, I'm making a small value/feeler bet.

So, sadly after five minutes of deliberation, I folded. I later admited to one of buddies that I'm likely making that same laydown if he makes a similar play with a J on the river.

And as it turns out, he showed a QsTs.

I generally try not to be too results oriented. But, it was the first time that I was stuck in a situation where my instincts were pushing me in a position completely contradictory to the proper odds/math. And like I said, I'd have made a similar laydown if a J comes on the river.

I don't think that my play was correct or even optimal on a street by street basis. I think it was far from terrible, but it probably could have been better.

It's a strange feeling to lay down a huge hand like that, save a lot of money, but still not feel right about it in the end.

[Fictive]

Given that the player gave you a lot of respect and likewise, and you had shown some strong hands earlier, I seriously doubt he had QT. Given that he was tight player, he probably had a pocket pair, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, or AA. He only called your pre-flop bet, so we could probably leave out aces or kings at least. I think he had either TT or QQ, but you have to call his all-in with a full house, simply because you were pretty much pot committed, and there still are tons of hands you could beat, in case your read was off.

[powrdragn]

Hmmm...well many times a good player (like this one appears to be from your description) could probably win an acting award if given the chance...looking a certain way doesn't necessarily mean one thing or another...I can act weak with the best of them, being strong the entire time, and vice versa. Granted, I'd take note of his reaction as information, but also I'd take it with a grain of salt...but I'm sure you already know that Just saying...that would be my thoughts on it.

I discounted that pretty early. I know that I can personally look interested to disinterested in a hand and whatnot. He's not quite that good. He's mostly an ABC kinda guy.

In a really strange scenario, he could know this and then purposely try to use that against me, but it had been a long session, so I doubt he was going to try and get THAT creative at this stage of the game.

This guy is pretty straight forward though. And he's not the type to put his money in like that unless he has a really big hand.

[Fictive]

lol, I started my post while you were posting the results... Oh well, the QT did catch me by surprise. More or less, I did think you were beat, but definetely not with QT, but a pocket pair. Unfortunately, the same result in the end in for you.

[liladypokerpro]

Well in a case where you know your opponent well, instincts always come into play. Like I said earlier, it is hard to say how I'd react to your situation without having physically been IN it, or knowing the player more in depth. So bravo on your gut read and the result.

[citizenfish]

lesse, we have 900 to start.

flop 100 we have 875 left, we bet 100

turn pot is 300 we have 775 left, we bet 200

river pot is 700 and we have 575 left we bet 200 and fold for 375?

after his shove pot is 700+200+375=1275.

2 things

1. why dont we just shove this river. we have like a perfect amount left.
2. i wouldnt ever fold here like, ever. of course, i would be jamming the river every single time, so this spot wouldnt exist.

why did you bet the 200 if you were going to fold for 400 more in a 1300 pot?

edit - also lol @ the guy that posted "I'm sure he had quad 10s"

[powrdragn]

lesse, we have 900 to start.

flop 100 we have 875 left, we bet 100

turn pot is 300 we have 775 left, we bet 200

river pot is 700 and we have 575 left we bet 200 and fold for 375?

after his shove pot is 700+200+375=1275.

2 things

1. why dont we just shove this river. we have like a perfect amount left.
2. i wouldnt ever fold here like, ever. of course, i would be jamming the river every single time, so this spot wouldnt exist.

why did you bet the 200 if you were going to fold for 400 more in a 1300 pot?

edit - also lol @ the guy that posted "I'm sure he had quad 10s"

My logic was simple on the $200 river bet.

If I'm good, I still get more money in the pot. He practically has to call $200 more with even three tens there.

On the other hand, $200 was also enough that if he did have a strong hand I'd truly be able to gauge it by his reraise or shove. If I check and he bets/shoves, I have no way to tell what's happening.

Mathematically, I was pricing myself in. But this also makes a bluff less likely as he would have to think I'm going to call with only ~$400 left.

Again, my gut was telling me to fold, but my mind was trying to talk me into calling simply because of the odds.

Most of the time, I'm going to be forced to make the call here. But this time, everything just felt wrong. I guess sometimes we should just use the numbers as a guide when we don't have a solid feeling or a good line to follow.

It's definitely interesting though. We all agree that the numbers say call. That's what I fighting myself over. It's amazing how I could still feel so sick over a good fold. It still drives me nuts to think about

And I was mildly shocked that it was QT. I thought it might have actually been QQ. Either way, it amounted to the same situation.

On a side note, I just picked up The Tao of Poker and they even have a section dedicated to trusting your instincts.

[phaul]

Good point by Citizenfish. Let's say you make the correct fold every time he shoves over your $200 river bet. However, he is prob calling a shove with a lot of tens or 44.

So you save $400 every time you are beat, but lose $400 when you are ahead of a strong hand. As you are ahead more often than not on the river, not shoving is suboptimal. It would probably not even occur to me to do anything other than shove!

[powrdragn]

Believe me, I get that. Folding on the river there is definitely a -EV situation. Like I said, I don't even like the fold play at all myself. I was absolutely sick.

My issue though is that I don't think he automatically calls a shove. So a shove actually creates no additional value for me. I needed a number that he is locked into calling and at the same time leave me some room in case I'm not good. I know that sounds dumb, but it really makes more sense then a shove in my eyes.

If he didn't hit the river and he was already afraid of me having a better hand, he's definitely going to fold. He knew there was no way I would push into him without a big hand. So, as far as I'm concerned a shove was either get called and lose or gain no extra money.


I think overall this is just a prime example of how things can play out at a poker table and that there are no absolutes. Just because something is "normally" strategically correct, doesn't make it ALWAYS correct.

[DaGreenster]

what are you doing raising utg+2 to 25 with 55?

[powrdragn]

Like I said before, I had a tight image, so I figured I could change things up. The game was getting toward the end of the night. We weren't likely going to play more than another hour. And I was also up a large amount.

Generally, I just limp with small pairs in an unraised pot. Don't worry, this is definitely NOT a standard play for me.

Now, that aside, even if I limp, the action doesn't change much more. The only difference is that I probably save about $100 more in the end.

[DaGreenster]

i cant believe you played the hand that way. limp, check raise, shove, lose it all. thats what woudlve happened to me if he called the shove on the turn.