Intro to Fold Equity.

[frob23]

This is going to be really basic and there's much more to fold equity but it's a start. And, considering how often new players make really poor bluffs, it has some value to the beginning player. I am only going to focus on the biggest mistake here... and that is making a bet that has almost no fold equity.

What is fold equity? Simply put, it's a fancy way to describe the chance your opponent will fold and how much you stand to win compared to your risk in that spot. We're NOT getting that deep here and will mainly focus on the chance your bet has of causing someone to fold -- which is step one when trying to figure your fold equity.

Figuring out how often someone is likely to fold is mostly art with a little hint of science. It all starts with observation. How often does a person fold and how big are the bets compared to the bets they've been calling (as well as what they have been showing down when calling). It's tricky at first to get a feel for how loose and tight a player might be. This comes with experience and you should be trying to gain such experience by watching others and not going crazy yourself. Then comes your image... your hand... the range of hands you can put them on... this is all the art... and you're not going to be able to jump right into this. I can't teach this and it is one reason why teaching fold equity is complicated.

But what I can explain is the science. The science relates to the sizes of the pot, bet, and the remaining stacks.

The larger the pot is, compared to the size of the bet, the less chance a player is going to fold. For example:

If the pot is $5.25 and you bet $0.25 on the turn, you have very little fold equity here. When the bet gets to your opponent he is being offered $5.50-$0.25 or 22-1 on his money. There are basically zero hands that someone can fold here if there had been action on the flop. You never want to make a bet like this. Even if you have the best possible hand, you don't want to make a bet that small because if they'll call that amount they probably would have called more.

This is the most important thing to keep in mind when it comes to fold equity and the biggest mistake new players make. You don't want to make bets that are so small (compared to the size of the pot) that someone is compelled to call with almost any two cards.

Basically, even on a complete bluff you should be betting at least 1/3rd-1/2 the pot on the small side... and only if you would be making those size bets with a made hand too. The simple fact of the matter is that even these bets probably have less fold equity than you expect (because good players will also be looking at how many chips you have left in your stack and be thinking about getting a percentage of them as well, if they hit). It's better to make bets that are between 75%-125% of the pot the majority of the time you play. This makes it expensive enough that only serious hands are likely to stick around.

Also... and this is important... fold equity is MUCH higher in a tournament than in a cash game. Where a 1/2 pot bet on the flop will pick up the pot most of the time in a tournament, it will rarely be that successful in a cash game. This has to do with the relative value of the chips plus the larger stacks... but it's something to keep in mind.

[Note: I welcome comments from other players to help expand on this idea because I am sure I messed this whole thing up and will just confuse people. I had an idea of what I wanted when I started this post and lost that idea half-way through.]

[Vito_Nuccio]

... make bets that are between 75%-125% of the pot the majority of the time you play. This makes it expensive enough that only serious hands are likely to stick around....

Also... and this is important... fold equity is MUCH higher in a tournament than in a cash game.

Thanks Frob.

The 75-125 percent rule is a good bet spread, either if bluffing or with a hand. Your own fold equity will go down with these types of bets but up for your opponent. Betting and making others perform critical thinking is the key to no limit poker.

In addition to cash vs tourney play, the reload factor can not be overlooked. In a cash game the playing life of the opponent is not in harms way, just the stack sitting in front.

Frob pretty took care of the rest, thanks.

[liladypokerpro]

Nicely put Frob...easily understood...beginners should get a great amount of help from this thread. Kudos!

[nebster]

Great lesson. Nice and simple. One thing I will add and you pointed to this is to know your players as best you can being online and all. The first question I ask is if I bet and am on a bluff.....what are the odds of this person folding. Some people are tight and will fold if you make any attempt at the pot, these are the ones you like becasue if they call then you know you may be in trouble. The calling stations are the ones to fear unless you have a monster, because no matter what you bet if they have something they are going along for the ride. I see this all the time ...people betting into calling stations and are furious when the donk wins the pot with his pair of ducks and say....HOW CAN YOU MAKE THAT CALL!!!!!!...and other expletives. When in fact they are the ones making the bad play by continuing to bet into the calling station. Make notes on your oppenonts all the time.....you never know when they will come in handy.

[irishpkr]

Good stuff from Frob, I feel like I'll enter the frey and talk some :P


*WARNING* MATHEMATICS INVOLVED IN THIS POST

From a cashgame point of view, an aggressive solid 6max approach is to be aggressive with position when folded to. So say we're playing $1/$2 NL, and we're on the button, folded to us.
We raise the standard 4xBB to $8 to try to take it down preflop. So we need to see how often the blinds must fold to make this profitable:

We win $3 x% of the time, and 'lose' our $8 (100-x)% of the time, so it turns out x = 72.7% here. If both blinds fold more than this to our raise, even if we give up everytime they raise/call, we make immediate profit. For an individual blind this works out as 85.3%, so their individ. fold to steal % is above this %, its +EV to make the blind steal. We're relying on pure FE(folding equity) here.

What about a raise to just 3xBB when on the button and folded to us?
Now we risk $6 to win $3, so this time we only need them to fold 66.6% of the time, which is 81.6% as individual player stats. So its up to you to find out what is most effective against your opponents - if they fold as often to $6 as they would to $8, then $6 will suffice; and ofcourse if they fold a ton more to $8, then go with that.

These figures are just for the preflop steal part, as after the flop we can also continuation bet suitable boards which scare our opponents, and we will have equity in the pot postflop too, so our steals dont need to make the blinds fold 70% of the time as calculated, the actual % is less because, 1. opponents miss the flop a lot, 2. we have position and 3. we'll have some equity at least.

One thing I don't agree with you on Frob, is the bet sizing. I think by betting 125% the pot we're usually folding out almost all hands that we beat. I'm normally reluctant to bet more than pot at most points, with the exception being when I've got like 1.1pot-sized-bets left in the stack, and I'm committing to the pot. Normally 2/3 to 3/4pot will have the same effect as overpotting. Ofcourse you subtly adjust your continuation bets based on the drawiness of the board (more drawy = closer to pot bet) and how often your opponent folds, and also your handstrength - if you're against a calling station and you have toppair/topkicker, pot it to max the value, for example. As before, a smaller bet is risking less to win the same pot, so they need to fold less often to have the same effect.

Eg. you raise to $6 preflop with AQo, BB calls $6 with 55

Flop K92r Pot=$13
BB checks, You bet $12, BB folds - Here a lot of the hands villain can have have missed this disconnected flop, so why risk 12 to win 13, when normally an $8.50-$9 bet will have the same effect. Ofcourse opponents arent often aware enough to realise that you will be betting slightly more when you have a real made hand, so when called you've got more $$ in, and you're probably ahead most of the time.


3bets:

Another interesting topic, again its totally FE based. Cutoff(guy right of the button) raises to $8 pre, button calls, you in SB raise to $32 with 76s. What??! You have 76s?!? Yes! Here you risk $32 to win $18, so to show an immediate profit, you need to get them to fold about 64% of the time here. But this is very much likely! If CO (cutoff) is stealing the blinds with 25% of his hands (quite normal, perhaps even low for these stakes!) we need him to continue with less than 8% of all hands. Most people won't want to call the 3bet without TT+, AK, maybe AQ, which is only 4.7% of all hands. So to 3bet here is insanely profitable, as long as your opponents respect the raise and wont call their whole range
Ofcourse care must be taken here, as CO might know that you know that he is stealing the blinds often and what not, so he too might play back lighter and 4bet you or w/e, but thats beyond the scope of what I'm saying here. *This maths may be slightly off but I did it at 3am, but its +EV either way! *

Also as a point to the continuation bets, in 3bet pots generally you dont need to bet so big, as the big will be 'big' whether it is half pot or full pot.


Eg. CO raises to $8 preflop, you(button) raise to $28 with AK, CO calls

Flop: Q92r Pot=$59
CO checks,

This is a really dry(no draws) board, and you can bet smaller here. A $35-40 bet will have the same effect of folding small pairs that missed the set as would a bet of $50, but you save money when the cutoff hit his Q or 9.


Ok I think I've given away too much already, g'night

[liladypokerpro]

Hey Irish......nice addition, but since this is for the beginners, you might want to explain all the abbreviations you've used, such as "CO" for cut-off, and so on.

Many new folks don't know that lingo, so they might get a little lost

[irishpkr]

K I think I've editted out all the possibly confusing terms, left only the most obvious ones like SB and BB for the blinds and what not

[liladypokerpro]

Kudos irish