Could we fold here?

[iceveins0901]

Or am I putting the MP2 on too small of a range? I put him on pretty much on TT+ from the start, is this too narrow or can I go with my read here and fold?

MP2 is a solid player, 14% VPIP 7% PFR 2.62 AF


Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $74.95
Hero (UTG+2): $134.80
MP1: $99
MP2: $146.05
CO: $38
BTN: $25.40
SB: $99.70
BB: $20
UTG: $34

Pre-Flop: Q Q dealt to Hero (UTG+2)
2 folds, Hero raises to $3.50, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $12, 4 folds, Hero calls $8.50

Flop: ($25.50) 3 J 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $21, Hero calls $21

Turn: ($67.50) T (2 Players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $48...

[frob23]

When we call this bet on the flop, what cards are we comfortable calling another bet for?

I don't like A or K (because I could see AK here but you're the one who has to decide his range)... we don't like a T...

I think we're looking for a Q to really feel good on this board. And a J would be tolerable. A J because we're not going to worry about quads here. A card lower than T isn't horrible but it's not great either. Right now you have him on a range of hands where you're only beating 6 combinations on the flop and losing to 15. This pot is bound to get huge.

It really depends on your read on the player. If you know he's not doing this with AJs or AK... or a pair below TT. Then I think you have to get away from it and sooner is better. The stats make me think this guy is a serious rock and your range on him is fairly probable.

Given the range you have him on, I don't think I can call the bet on the flop. And I hate putting half my stack in the middle on the turn, knowing I am calling the rest on the river, when I think I am drawing to 2 outs. I guess I take the road of the nit and fold here.

Just a question, and I could be way out in left field with this, but why aren't you 3-betting this pre-flop? If he comes over the top of you there, I think it's a fairly easy lay-down (especially with his stats). Calling here leaves us guessing on the flop unless we're set-mining and I don't like set-mining with QQ. I'm probably overly aggressive with QQ at times pre-flop but we're going to lose just as much money to KK calling here when a flop like this comes as we would raising pre-flop... in my mind at least.

[iceveins0901]

I guess I pretty much had myself losing from the start, so I just called the 3bet, and then the board was garbage, I think I would have liked to raise the turn, but the T really killed my hopes of being in the lead in this hand.

[frob23]

I agree with you on the 10 killing your chance of stealing on the turn. If you're range is anywhere close to accurate... and this player considers you in anyway solid... you're probably not going to get away with it. The only real chance I could see is if he had KK-AA and could put you on TT. But... given that you're basically limited to a min-raise here... you're not going to get him off KK or AA even if he thinks you might have gotten lucky and turned a set of 10s. He's bet enough that he's basically committed himself to this hand.

If his bet was smaller and the stacks were deeper... he might... but you basically have $50 left... and he's not folding a $200+ pot for $50 unless this is a really bad bluff -- and his stats don't suggest that.

[thevirus321]

I think you were behind his 3betting range preflop, with a pfr of 7% I think his 3betting range is limited to AK KK+ and mabey occasionally QQ. I actually prefer to fold this pre...we are only losing 3.5bb by folding and it helps us avoid tricky situations like this. Either way after the turn bet your beating absolutly nothing here except a pretty ballsey bluff.