Playing the nuts

[snipermcgees]

So, villain in the hand is like 80/10. He's been paying off everyone, going deep in almost every hand, and I have a decent read on his bet sizing. We've been going at each other quite a bit, and everyone has been getting out of the way.

$0.10/0.25 NL hold'em
6 max
effective stacks $45

blinds are posted, villain limps UTG. It's folded to me on the button, and I pop it to $1.50 with QJo to isolate (I have been doing this a lot, and he has been calling with his entire limping range). Everyone folds to villain who obv calls (he does not fold pre-flop).

Flop: A K 10 (two clubs)
pot: $3.35

Villain leads for $2. This is a big bet from villain, and signals he has caught a part of the flop. Felt a lot like he was holding aces up or club draw.

What's your play on the flop and for the rest of the hand?

[irishpkr]

Felt a lot like he was holding aces up or club draw.

How can you say this, then wonder how to play the hand? :/

[liladypokerpro]

Playing the nuts? If there's a possibility your hand can be beat then it's not the nuts just yet As for how to play it from here, either bust his skull open or flat call scared until he hits whatever it is he needs to beat you, then fold out cheap. Really the only two choices at this point. Just remember, most flops miss most hands, so if you hit it and hit it good, then it's highly unlikely your opponent did too.

[irishpkr]

Playing the nuts? If there's a possibility your hand can be beat then it's not the nuts just yet As for how to play it from here, either bust his skull open or flat call scared until he hits whatever it is he needs to beat you, then fold out cheap. Really the only two choices at this point. Just remember, most flops miss most hands, so if you hit it and hit it good, then it's highly unlikely your opponent did too.

I normally agree with what you say, but I think this advice is totally bad
You have to raise almost full pot here, and keep betting! Playing to minimise losses is the worst way to go, we've already been over this with Krahsami's batshit insane sniper thing
One choice.

And about opponent not hitting the flop, that would only apply if we held blockers to stop him paring up, but look at all the hands he could have that arent affected by our QJ:

AK(unlikely admittedly), AT, some Ax, KT

Ofcourse there are also many pair and straight draw type hands, like AQ/AJ/KJ, and on top of that flush draws too - ofcourse it wasn't mentioned which of the flop cards were clubs, and which wasnt, so perhaps Axcc in there too. You could argue that he will fold all his lower pocket pairs, but how much value do you expect to get on the turn when ANOTHER likely overcard falls?

[bowlaman]

Well its obvious. If you think he is holding aces you know he will reraise any raise and you know your sitting 66% to win with his 1/3 odds of making the full boat. If you raise to $6 you will know what he has for sure off your instinct. If you are right about the AA he will either reraise to $12-20 or go all in. If he has the draw and your right about paying everyone off he will call and watch the turn. Either way you are sitting pretty unless the magic board pairing 3rd card to the flush comes then your skrewed and have to make a solid fold.

[irishpkr]

Well its obvious. If you think he is holding aces you know he will reraise any raise and you know your sitting 66% to win with his 1/3 odds of making the full boat. If you raise to $6 you will know what he has for sure off your instinct. If you are right about the AA he will either reraise to $12-20 or go all in. If he has the draw and your right about paying everyone off he will call and watch the turn. Either way you are sitting pretty unless the magic board pairing 3rd card to the flush comes then your skrewed and have to make a solid fold.

And this is pretty meh too... I mean its pretty narrow a range to put him on - AA or a flush draw. This is one hand were it really doesnt help us to know exactly where we are, if he has a set or a flush draw, all we know is that we have a MONSTER hand, but that it is VERY vulnerable on a board like this, as another A/K/T could potentially give him a FH, a Q/J could give him the straight too, wrecking our equity, or another club could either slow him down with 2pair, or give him the flush. You have to realise that while we are very strong, we have NO REDRAWS and there are a ton of scary cards on the turn. You really have to charge him for his set/2pair/p+gs/flushdraw, raise flop to $9.

BTW even if the 3rd club does come, if he is calling the flop raise with 2pair/set hands, even some pair and gutshot hands, then just folding the club turn would be quite weak

[snipermcgees]

Flop was:

Kh Ac 10c

(so no ace high club draw)

We are holding Qh Jd.

I'm looking to get his stack, and that's why I posted the hand. I wanted to know how people would proceed.

[snipermcgees]

How can you say this, then wonder how to play the hand? :/

I am really glad that the above turned into this.....

And this is pretty meh too... I mean its pretty narrow a range to put him on - AA or a flush draw. This is one hand were it really doesnt help us to know exactly where we are, if he has a set or a flush draw, all we know is that we have a MONSTER hand, but that it is VERY vulnerable on a board like this, as another A/K/T could potentially give him a FH, a Q/J could give him the straight too, wrecking our equity, or another club could either slow him down with 2pair, or give him the flush. You have to realise that while we are very strong, we have NO REDRAWS and there are a ton of scary cards on the turn. You really have to charge him for his set/2pair/p+gs/flushdraw, raise flop to $9.

BTW even if the 3rd club does come, if he is calling the flop raise with 2pair/set hands, even some pair and gutshot hands, then just folding the club turn would be quite weak

nice post.

[liladypokerpro]

I know that irish...I thought you of all people would recognize the sarcasm in the second opinion of my answer

You should know by now I prefer the "bust his skull open" route LOL

[irishpkr]

Sorry its just hard to see sarcasm online, and what with the recent influx of, shall we say, weird posts recently, its hard to tell what's what :P

"How can you say this, then wonder how to play the hand?" I thought that would be sufficient, as you've already said he doesnt fold much, so just go for the jugular

[liladypokerpro]

Yeah the strange posts recently is what fueled the whole idea lol hehe

But yeah considering the person he's up against here, make him pay and make it hurt

[HeyKidMove]

Definitely raise here. There are a lot of two pair/pair straight draw/flush draw hands that you will get value from. Calling gives him a chance at a cheap draw. Raising gives you the most value here. If he has two pair he will call at least and possibly reraise, and getting it in with the nuts on the flop is always a good thing.

[bossmanisme]

this is an obvious call. he limp calls almost every hand, which means his range is incredibly wide and there's a good chance he could be straight up bluffing. smooth call and punish him for being a loose donk. that's how you make him pay in this hand.

results?

[irishpkr]

this is an obvious call. he limp calls almost every hand, which means his range is incredibly wide and there's a good chance he could be straight up bluffing. smooth call and punish him for being a loose donk. that's how you make him pay in this hand.

results?

This is an obvious RAISE if the read given 'This is a big bet from villain, and signals he has caught a part of the flop. Felt a lot like he was holding aces up or club draw.' is correct, which we have to assume at this point. that's how you make him pay in this hand.

You can't assume at any rate that this loose donk is going to be running some elaborate 2 or 3 street bluff.

[bossmanisme]

This is an obvious RAISE if the read given 'This is a big bet from villain, and signals he has caught a part of the flop. Felt a lot like he was holding aces up or club draw.' is correct, which we have to assume at this point. that's how you make him pay in this hand.

You can't assume at any rate that this loose donk is going to be running some elaborate 2 or 3 street bluff.

and i'm saying there's a good chance his read is off. this guy has been limp calling every hand, and now, all of a sudden, you want to narrow has range to A10 or BETTER?? you can't. you call in case he's bluffing, you raise the turn, and if he's got a big hand you're getting it in anyways.

as far as protecting from the flush (because i know that comment is coming from someone): if he has it and you raise, it's getting in on the flop and you get your money in at a whopping 63% favorite. (you're still losing over a third of the time). when the club misses the turn he's still getting his money in with his draw, and now you're a much bigger favorite when the majority of the chips go in.

of course he's not "running an elaborate 3 street bluff," but if he's a donkey and aggressive he's still going to run a bluff on all streets.

obviously if you know he has 2 pair or better, raise. but i don't think it's at all possible to isolate his range that much.

[Brooklynbum]

bet and bet often in this situation.

What are you waiting for??

[infinii]

Raise. Not because you're afraid of the flush draw but because you want to build the pot so you can get it all it by the river (if villain has a hand that he's willing to showdown with). If you don't raise his donkbet on the flop, you will have hard time getting your deep stacks in unless someone overbets a street. I raise it to like $5.5. If villain folds to this raise, then it doesn't matter because you'd unlikely have gotten any more out of him at turn unless you had reads that he bluffs alot across multiple streets.

If club hits the turn, I'm still betting/raising. If he hits the flush then I chalk it up to a cooler.

The only scenario I'm folding this hand is if a 4th club comes on the river and neither of my QJ are a club. Even if the board pairs, I can't imagine getting away from broadway here.

FWIW, villain doesn't have AA KK AK. He limped UTG and has a 10% pfr. 10pfr is a pretty tight range and definitely includes those 3 hands so he's obv not limping. Ok, it's not impossible but I'm honestly not putting much worth into assigning that to his hand range. When he leads out like this into the pf raiser, I'd say his range is more likely:

TJ Q9, TT, KJ QT and any flush draws and suited Ace rag. More often than not, he has a ten here and is seeing where he is and will fold to any aggression.

[irishpkr]

and i'm saying there's a good chance his read is off. this guy has been limp calling every hand, and now, all of a sudden, you want to narrow has range to A10 or BETTER?? you can't. you call in case he's bluffing, you raise the turn, and if he's got a big hand you're getting it in anyways

You can't dismiss a read that a guy has, if OP has a read that this is how he plays 'big hands' then we have to go with that. Personally, I'm not sure if this is really the case, but it's what we've been told about the villain. Either way its pretty irrelevent. Flush draws should make up a pretty big portion of his range, and I'm not letting people set their own price here to draw when I have a big yet vulnerable hand. 3 reasonable bets gets it allin by the river (roughly), but I don't want that third club to fall to either kill my hand or my action

[snipermcgees]

This is a raise, but the point was how much?

In previous hands, villain has folded to large bets (I should have included this info as irish pointed out), but it is usually later in the hand (most on the river). I don't remember seeing him bet/fold any street (following a sizeable lead bet). His flop bet narrows his range for sure.

I was sort of trying to get an idea on how much to raise, or what people like to do. I would think villain has me pinned on a big ace type of hand.

Let's say whatever we decide to raise it up to, villain calls and checks the turn (harmless - 4h).
How much you bet?

pot is now $3.35 + (2 x size of flop raise), with roughly $43 - (size of flop raise) left in effective stacks.

[irishpkr]

Make it like $8.50 on the flop (its slightly less than the pot raise to $9.35). If called that would make it roughly $20 pot on the turn, so bet maybe $16-18