Would you fold QQ here?

[snagy]

Jausi!
I`m playing a 20$ + 2$ turbo sng at Absolute. The table where full of tilting monkeys. I hit QQ in my BB and where hoping for some action!

What do you think?

Stage #1578805236 Tourney ID 1947039 Holdem Single Tournament No Limit 300 -

Seat 2 - EPIXLOL (4436 in chips)(loose/passiv CS)
Seat 4 - CHEATING-MF (2898 in chips)(superloose/Passiv)
Seat 5 - Hero (2605 in chips) (big monkey)
Seat 8 - ILIKEFLOPS (1885 in chips) (Likes to raise UTG)
Seat 9 - GOXVAMPIRE (1676 in chips) (no read)
CHEATING-MF - Posts small blind 150
HERO - Posts big blind 300
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Qc Qh]
ILIKEFLOPS - Raises 1050 to 1050
GOXVAMPIRE - All-In(Raise) 1676 to 1676
EPIXLOL - All-In(Raise) 4436 to 4436
CHEATING-MF - All-In 2748
Hero - Folds
ILIKEFLOPS - Folds
EPIXLOL - returned (1538) : not called
*** FLOP *** [8s Kd 3h]
*** TURN *** [8s Kd 3h] [5d]
*** RIVER *** [8s Kd 3h 5d] [7h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
EPIXLOL - Shows [10d 10c] (One pair, tens)
CHEATING-MF - Shows [Ac Jc] (ace high)
GOXVAMPIRE - Shows [Qd As] (ace high)
EPIXLOL Collects 2444 from side pot-1
EPIXLOL Collects 6378 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot(8822:6378,2444)
Board [8s Kd 3h 5d 7h]
Seat 2: EPIXLOL (dealer) won Total (8822) All-In HI: (8822) with One pair, tens [10d 10c - P:10d,P:10c,B:Kd,B:8s,B:7h]
Seat 4: CHEATING-MF (small blind) HI:lost with ace high [Ac Jc - P:Ac,B:Kd,P:Jc,B:8s,B:7h]
Seat 5: HERO (big blind) HI:
Seat 8: ILIKEFLOPS Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 9: GOXVAMPIRE HI:lost with ace high [Qd As - P:As,B:Kd,P:Qd,B:8s,B:7h]

[travz21]

Yes .

[phosphorescence]

folding QQ here is stupid.
you have less than 10BBs and the 3rd best hand in hold'em at a 5handed table, what are you waiting for?

[HeyKidMove]

Yes, but don't show the results next time if you want help on your action.

[snagy]

next time i will, but it really doesnt matter what they had.

Three of the guys had more than me so i folded and i could easily make the money by folding.
Last guy folded with 400 left and chippie won the pot.
Shortstack to my left. It all turned out well.

[DeadBabySoup]

i probably would have called. but it's not wrong to fold. even if you had seen their cards, it wouldn't necessarily have been a bad fold. yes you had the best hand and the best chance to win. but you were only 55% to win. basically a coin flip. if you were already in the money, then it would be a bad fold.

[RiverstarsVictim]

next time i will, but it really doesnt matter what they had.

Three of the guys had more than me so i folded and i could easily make the money by folding.
Last guy folded with 400 left and chippie won the pot.
Shortstack to my left. It all turned out well.

You were 3rd before that hand.

If you just want to make the money then I guess folding is ok. Personally I prefer the call. The blinds are high enough for the smaller stacks to be pushing/calling off with any Ax (which we really want here) or lower PP's. If big stack does clear up we take 3rd anyway. If we clear up we're in good position to win outright (which ought to be our aim).

[phaul]

folding QQ here is stupid.
you have less than 10BBs and the 3rd best hand in hold'em at a 5handed table, what are you waiting for?

You don't play SnGs, do you?

If big stack does clear up we take 3rd anyway. If we clear up we're in good position to win outright (which ought to be our aim).

No, we take fourth, which is a massive difference. Also, our aim is not to win, but just to maximise our EV in any given situation.



I'd fold. If you're second stack then whether I'd call prob depends on how much I'd have left if a shorter stack won. I'd probably have to be second stack with a fair difference between myself and third to call. Also, Jesus Christ, are the $20+2s normally this soft on Absolute?

[RiverstarsVictim]

No, we take fourth, which is a massive difference.

My mistake. I overlooked one of the shorter stacks folding

[phosphorescence]

You don't play SnGs, do you?



No, we take fourth, which is a massive difference. Also, our aim is not to win, but just to maximise our EV in any given situation.



I'd fold. If you're second stack then whether I'd call prob depends on how much I'd have left if a shorter stack won. I'd probably have to be second stack with a fair difference between myself and third to call. Also, Jesus Christ, are the $20+2s normally this soft on Absolute?

erm actually yes i do play SnGs (although MTT ones), and i do very well from them.
you talk about maximising your EV in any situation, and if we're getting the 55% that someone else said with 4 people all in i'd say our EV was pretty damn good yes?

if you want to mincash like the rest of the fish then be my guest and fold, i'm going for the win thanks and QQ is miles ahead of all their ranges.

in future don't be so fucking patronising, it's annoying.

folding QQ here is awful.

[DeadBabySoup]

erm actually yes i do play SnGs (although MTT ones), and i do very well from them.
you talk about maximising your EV in any situation, and if we're getting the 55% that someone else said with 4 people all in i'd say our EV was pretty damn good yes?

if you want to mincash like the rest of the fish then be my guest and fold, i'm going for the win thanks and QQ is miles ahead of all their ranges.

in future don't be so fucking patronising, it's annoying.

folding QQ here is awful.

overreact much? he was making a joke. see the smiley face? neither play is bad. you can make a good argument either way. calling is high risk with high reward. if your hand holds up, you'll be in good position to take first. folding is no risk with some reward. by folding, he virtually guarantees himself that he'll at least make the money. against this group of muppets, he should be able to grind out a win from there.

[phaul]

erm actually yes i do play SnGs (although MTT ones), and i do very well from them.
you talk about maximising your EV in any situation, and if we're getting the 55% that someone else said with 4 people all in i'd say our EV was pretty damn good yes?

if you want to mincash like the rest of the fish then be my guest and fold, i'm going for the win thanks and QQ is miles ahead of all their ranges.

in future don't be so fucking patronising, it's annoying.

folding QQ here is awful.

OK, sorry for being patronising, your post made you sound like a cash game player and I just fucking hate it when they try and answer SnG questions as they have no clue.

However,

1) Don't be results-orientated - you're not always 55%! You don't always get an underpair and 2 overs which have each other wrapped up. I wouldn't be surprised if button and SB are very near the bottom of their ranges.
2) As I'm sure you're aware, chip EV is not the same as $EV.
3) You've got to be ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that the SB's range is that wide, otherwise you're looking absolutely horrific.

I just stoved some preeeeettty wide ranges and got QQ at 42%, so at an estimate that prob gives you a $EV of roughly 0.189 of the prizepool from when you win, plus a tiny bit extra from when CO wins and you come second, so round up to at most 0.21. I'm almost certain that your EV when you fold is bigger than that, given that you get ENORMOUS equity when the big stack wins and even when he doesn't, you're almost always second stack on the bubble with one tiny stack. I'd guess at your equity when you fold being something like 0.26/0.27.

My initial answer was done on intuition, but I'm pretty certain the maths backs me up. I think you actually need something like 60% equity for calling to be better than folding. Which would make Kings an easy fold.

But I don't have any proper tools available, just Pokerstove, can someone confirm this for me on SnGWiz please?

[snagy]

Thanks for alot of good answers, extra thanks to Phaul.
Totally agree with Phaul in all his post.
When theres more players allin the sngwiz didnt work, thats the main reason i post it here.
Increase your tourney EV,is all thats matters
The 20$ sngs on absolute usually are a better.

I think most people forget that it doesent matter what they show but whats they hand ranges are.
Example:

The guy with AJs probly fold ATs and AJo, so his hand ranges should be AJs+AQ+99

[travz21]

This thread got really dramatic after my very simple and very right answer.

[phaul]

This thread got really dramatic after my very simple and very right answer.

Lol .

[GainerRakeback]

Insta-fold.

[Clearwheezy]

Since I've been gone I'm throwing my 2 cents into the pot, or hat, or bowl, or what ever thing you have that you can throw your 2 cents into.

I'm going to have to side with the "shouldn't've folded" group. You have a ton of individuals who are tilting as you said, so you could be best here. They could be going in with ak, aq, aj, jj, tt, kq, kj, qj, or middle or even lower pairs. We've all seen the guys who overplay their bottom pairs. I'm sure heads are nodding. When you have 3 all ins in front of you it's time to think.

Was the original reraiser trying to steal the pot? No, probably not considering it's less than 2x the original raise for what's his nuts to call. One of the only reasons why folding here is good is b/c you don't have a good read on GOX. (Why did ILIKEFLOPS fold, he has what...2.6BB left, other than to try and cash)

You have a bunch of loose passive/loose guys going all in, which traditional poker theory says is good when you have QQ, bc you're playing tight and you now have the 3rd best starting hand. Think about this, the odds of them having KK AND/OR AA are slim, although they seem to happen all the time on FTP. In that case, tough break. JJ is a huge underdog against you as well obviously, and that guy with TT made IMO a huge mistake by RR with TT. The only hands that will call him are hands that have him beat like JJ or coin flippers. He should've just called if anything, that way he wouldn't hurt himself too badly if things didn't work out.

The ranges you REALLY need to be looking at for these guys is an A with a pretty card to back it up. In that case, outs are getting eaten up by each other like a tribe of cannibals.

In the end it all depends on your end goal. Are you trying to stabilize a life supporting bankroll? In that case I can see how you folded (although I don't necessarily agree with it).

Any takers? Comments? Hate letters? lol.

[phaul]

Clearwheezy, this is not cash, this situation is mathematically solvable and your realistic best-case scenario when you call is losing half a buyin in equity. You are seriously burning money if you call. To give you an idea of how different it is to cash, AA is marginal. Seriously.

[Clearwheezy]

Touche phaul. can you explain or point me to the mathematical information? did i miss it?
also, does anybody here actually have the time/skills to calculate EV, odds, and any other math necessary?

[phaul]

See my post above for my rough calculations. I'll try and post some more details after Wednesday when my exams finish and I have time to breathe