i should be a professional gambler

[bogartkick]

In order to become a professional gambler, you need to study more about gambling about tips, tricks and strategies. You will be, but it will take you for a long time to become one.

[URMYTURD]

People have gone broke with that stategy many, many times

[C8H10N4O2]

People have gone broke with that stategy many, many times

Lies, I say... 100% lies. Not a single person has ever gone broke. Ever.

[hojediade]

This is a well known tip which is usually considered as a cheating play in most casinos. You can check it out on web where i guess you discovered this tip.

[grimReaper]

Old post, I know, but don't do this! You will lose! You basically turn your 48-52 game into a 99-1 game (depending on how small your bet is), but when you lose, you lose your house, when you win, you win your one small bet - think 7 card stud hi/lo cash game lol. But seriously, I've written computer simulations that confirm this and check wiki for the mathematical proof of EV-.

Proof:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marting...tical_analysis

[travz21]

I still fail to believe that people can make a living off casino games in the long run. There is no such thing as a pro gambler.

[purplechip1]

I still fail to believe that people can make a living off casino games in the long run. There is no such thing as a pro gambler.

If you go to the casino and play blackjack every day for a year and you win on average a $1000 a week I think you could be classified as a professional gambler. Doesnt matter that your getting exceptionaly lucky your making an income off it.

[travz21]

There isn't luck in the long run. I understand people thinking they have an edge when they run hot for maybe a month or two, but they will be a pro busto gambler if they keep playing. There are only a select few who can actually get a slight edge in BJ, and they are rarely allowed in any casinos they've been in before.

[purplechip1]

There isn't luck in the long run. I understand people thinking they have an edge when they run hot for maybe a month or two, but they will be a pro busto gambler if they keep playing. There are only a select few who can actually get a slight edge in BJ, and they are rarely allowed in any casinos they've been in before.

of course they will lose in the long term but depending how they play a year might still be in the short term. Example, guy has a 50000 bankroll, goes and gambles 5 days a week. either wins 200 or goes bust using martingale system. at the end of the year hes up 52000. thus he is a professional gambler. but he must go bust eventually. Of course he could always have a career change after that year.

[purplechip1]

from my rough calculations hes got about a 1 in 3 chance of doing so

[travz21]

Playing 5 days a week for a year seems to go pretty far beyond short term. The Martingale system will fail him long before the year is out. Unless he can play with his entire 50k bankroll at once, and with no max bet. Then he'd have a chance. He'd still technically be losing money every bet, but it'd be very improbable to bust unless he lost like 30 hands in a row by doubling his bet every time he loses.

[bsg]

Ocean 14: the Martingale system

[grimReaper]

A year?! If you play 5 days/week, ~260 days/year, your probability of never going busto is 0.99^260 = 7.3%.

I attached a screenshot from the simulation. I ran it for $127 bankroll (1 less than a power of 2 to make sure that last bet is a whole bet) and $1 bet, but the point is your initial bet is 0.8% of your bankroll, which is pretty small, i.e you will only get 0.8% return w/ your 99-1 game, and in the long run lose your entire bankroll. If you want 0.8% return, invest in US Treasury bonds (don't know the exact return, but it should be around there and it'll be a 100-0 game)...

[purplechip1]

A year?! If you play 5 days/week, ~260 days/year, your probability of never going busto is 0.99^260 = 7.3%.

I attached a screenshot from the simulation. I ran it for $127 bankroll (1 less than a power of 2 to make sure that last bet is a whole bet) and $1 bet, but the point is your initial bet is 0.8% of your bankroll, this is pretty small, i.e you will only get 0.8% return w/ your 99-1 game, and in the long run lose your entire bankroll. If you want 0.8% return, invest in US Treasury bonds (don't know the exact return, but it should be around there and it'll be a 100-0 game)...

start with with bankroll $51000, initial wager 200, probability 0.47, number of rounds 260

OR

bankroll 255, initial bet 1, probability 0.47, total rounds 260

[purplechip1]

0.0062259690411361 chances of losing 8 times in a row
0.99377403095886 chances of winning 1 time in a row
0.1971457227421995 chance of winning 260 times in a row

So a 19.71% of winning $200 260 days a year with a $51,000 bankroll.

Doable.

[grimReaper]

0.0062259690411361 chances of losing 8 times in a row
0.99377403095886 chances of winning 1 time in a row
0.1971457227421995 chance of winning 260 times in a row

So a 19.71% of winning $200 260 days a year with a $51,000 bankroll.

Doable.

Are you trying to impress me lol? Winning $200/day for 260 days amounts to winning $52000 total, and you only had 20% chance of that happening vs. winning $51000 in just one day (all in), and having a 47% of chance of winning.

Plus this assumes the casino gives you a special privilege and allows you to bet any amount you want.

[C8H10N4O2]

0.0062259690411361 chances of losing 8 times in a row
0.99377403095886 chances of winning 1 time in a row
0.1971457227421995 chance of winning 260 times in a row

So a 19.71% of winning $200 260 days a year with a $51,000 bankroll.

Doable.

Casinos love when you gamble for doubling your money with only a 19.71%. Can we play poker with these odds too? You take the 19.71%, and I'll take the 80.29%. I'd love to be that much of a favorite. This seems doable to me.

[purplechip1]

youve missed the point.
The point im making is this.

Is it possible to be a professional gambler?
Since its been stated in another thread that a professional poker player is a poker player who makes his income playing poker than a professional gambler is a gambler who makes his income gambling.

So therefore it must be established whether or not a a gambler can make an income off gambling.

I have shown that a gambler can make a decent income in a year off gambling. However he must go against the odds to do so. However it is quite decently possible. (20%)

Therefore it is possible for a person to be a professional gambler.

Now where did I say that it was plus EV to continually gamble?

[purplechip1]

and economist id rather stare at a brick wall for a year than attempt to impress you

[C8H10N4O2]

youve missed the point.

Nah, I got it. I still want these odds though.

Now where did I say that it was plus EV to continually gamble?

Where did I say that you did say it was +EV?

Also, what is your full definition of "professional gambler" just so that's explicitly clear?