A little discussion on implied odds and pot odds

[frob23]

One of the skills players need to learn to master, as they improve their No-Limit game, is to have a solid grasp of both pot odds and implied odds. These are both the amount you can expect to win relative to the amount you have to pay. Pot odds are fairly simple to figure out. And my hand that I will discuss below has a simple pot odds part. But implied odds are much more powerful and also much more dangerous for inexperienced players.

Pot odds are the ratio of the amount of money already in the pot compared to how much you have to pay to stay in. If the pot is $1.60 and your opponent bets $0.40, you are being offered $2.00 (the previous pot plus his bet) for the cost of $0.40. You have pot odds of 5-1. You can then compare the chance of hitting -- and winning if you hit -- and decide if calling is wise. This is a simple math problem.

Implied odds can often be more of an art than a science. And the biggest problem with implied odds and beginner players is that they over-value them when they finally start to use them. Implied odds take the size of the pot as well as the amount of money you can expect to win from what is left in your opponent's stack... when looking at the size of the bet. So, if the pot was $1.60 and your opponent bets $0.40 and he has a lot of chips left. You have to make a prediction of how many of the chips he has left you will be able to get. If you think you can get another $1.00 from him (on average) if you hit, then your implied odds will be closer to 7-1 than 5-1 because of the extra money you expect to make from future action.

Pot odds are always absolute (at the time you take them, they can change if people act behind you) but implied odds are always an estimate. And it is often a difficult estimate to make. The only time you can be pretty certain of your implied odds is if you have a very strong feel for the other player's game and you know that he will be shoving all-in (say he's got a small stack) no matter what the next card is. In that case, you can assume that you will get the rest of his stack when you hit and can fold when you miss. Even this isn't really 100% because people are often unpredictable.

Anyway, let's take a look at a hand I played recently at $5NL and I'll talk a little bit more about pot odds and implied odds.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars

saw flop | saw showdown

UTG+1 ($4.70)
MP1 ($3)
Hero (MP2) ($9.50)
MP3 ($4.29)
CO ($2.31)
Button ($6.91)
SB ($5.95)
BB ($3.60)
UTG ($3.98)



Preflop: Hero is MP2 with ,
3 folds, Hero calls $0.05, MP3 bets $0.20, CO calls $0.20, Button calls $0.20, 1 fold, BB calls $0.15, Hero calls $0.15

Here we have some suited connectors. This table often has a lot of people to a flop and frequently (but not all the time) you can get in for the cost of the big blind. In the hopes of seeing a cheap flop, we limp here. This isn't a strong play but it can be profitable on these tables if you play well against a bunch of people. We are immediately raised by the player on our left. He makes it 4xBB. We have three other people call around and this is not a bad spot. Had everyone else folded, we might have given up our hand here. But with 4 people in, and only 3xBB to call for a 17xBB pot, we can see a flop here. It is also good to note that we are closing off the action. If this raise had come from the blinds after three people had limped behind us, we might be more inclined to fold because one of those limpers could reraise.

Flop: ($1.02) , , (5 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets $0.30, 2 folds, BB calls $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

Let's take a look at our hand here. We have a gut-shot straight draw. There are four 8s in the deck that will complete our straight. We know 5 cards... so... 43 cards don't help us and 4 cards do. This means we are 10.75-1 against hitting our card. Looking at our pot odds, we are being offered $1.62 for $0.30. That is only 5.4-1. For us to have the right odds, we need to be getting about $3.25 to call here. We aren't getting that, so pot odds would dictate a fold. We need to get another $1.61 in the pot for it to be an even money call.

As a note, I only look at one card odds when playing hands like this. If we miss, the other player might make a large bet on the turn and we have no promise to see the river for free. With the stacks involved, I would almost certainly say that we will not be seeing a free card on the turn.

Now, before we look at pot odds. Let's think about how the board is going to look if we hit our 8. This is where most people make their first mistake. They try and use implied odds for a flush and forget that the board will look very scary if they actually hit. If we hit our 8, the board will be J-7-3-8 and there is not any flush possible on the turn. That board is pretty harmless looking to most opponents. So, we can reasonably assume that hitting our card won't shutdown the betting. Now we try and put the other players on some hands. The original bettor could have a couple high cards and just be following through with his bet. But with so many people in, I think he might have a big pair sort of hand. Maybe an over-pair to the board. The caller probably has a Jack because there aren't any real draws out there. Based on that, how much do we think will go in on the turn?

Well, the 8 isn't going to change anything and they put in a total of 60c on the flop. Neither of them are really short on chips at this point in the hand, and it is certainly reasonable to assume that we can get another pot sized amount from them on the turn and river combined. In all likelihood, it will have to be done with smaller bets on the turn and river but it can be done.

Based on that reasoning, we call here. This reasoning can get you into a lot of trouble so it's best to really keep your expectations low. I am not expecting either of these players to get all-in here. I am looking at getting another 10-15% of their stacks in.

Again, being last to act here also plays a role in calling. Since we close the action off, we know exactly how much we are paying to see the next card. We can't be raised and end up being forced to fold.

Turn: ($1.92) (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets $0.70, BB calls $0.70, Hero calls $0.70

We missed our gut-shot. This isn't shocking. We will miss those the vast majority of the time. This Queen makes things interesting though. Because we now have an open-ended straight draw. The odds of hitting an 8 or a K on the river are 4.75-1. We've dramatically improved our chances of hitting our hand. The original bettor fires off another bet and is called again. This time the pot is $3.32 and it will cost us $0.70 to call. This is almost exactly 4.75-1. We can call here and break even just on pot odds alone so long as we won't end up losing if we hit.

The board is rainbow. So we know there aren't any backdoor flushes that will beat us. We know that an 8 will always give us the best hand. What about a K? Well, we won't have the absolute best hand. We could be beat by A-T. But, based on the previous action, do we expect A-T to be out there? I think it is a fairly safe bet that it is not. We still have slight implied odds at this point -- not that we need them. We can expect to make some extra money when we hit the 8. And we can expect to make a smaller amount of money if we hit the K. We can expect that because having K-Q-J out on the board is more threatening than 8-J-Q. Fewer opponents will expect the straight when the 8 comes than when the King comes. We also prefer the 8 because the BB is expected to have a Jack and having another over-card will reduce the amount of money we can expect from him.

Assuming we get no extra money when we hit the King and on rare occasions we lose to A-T but that we make some extra money when the 8 comes and that more than makes up for the rare times A-T shows up here with the King, we can profitably call. The call is break-even based on pot odds alone and certainly profitable when factoring in implied odds.

As another note, if we hadn't improved... we have to fold to the $0.70 bet here. There is no way we can assume our implied odds will be high enough to think we can get the nearly $8.00 we need to have the right price on the gut-shot alone.

River: ($4.02) (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, MP3 calls $3, 1 fold

This is the perfect card for us. It's not threatening. It checks to us and we fire off a 3/4ths pot sized bet. We're playing this for value. I expect to get called by at least one of the players based on the previous action and how harmless that card looks. I could have bet less but I expect a $2 bet to get called nearly as often as a $3 bet here. We do get called in one spot -- which was great. And gives some credit to our assumption that we could make more money when we hit.

Total pot: $10.02 | Rake: $0.45
Main pot: $10.02 between Hero and MP3, won by Hero

Results:
Hero had 9, 10 (straight, Queen high).
MP3 mucked Q, A (one pair, Queens).
Outcome: Hero won $9.57

So MP3 was continuation betting on the flop. That's a little weaker than I expected them to be. Lucky for us, they hit on the turn. I have to assume the BB has a J-x type hand and realized after my bet and the call that it was no good and was able to let it go.

So there it is, a simple introduction to using implied and pot odds during play. These things really do pass through my head when I am playing a hand like this. I ask myself, "If I make my hand, how much more am I likely to get?" And I constantly try and improve my estimating skills. The better I get with it, the more profitable I can expect to become. Of course, how much I can expect to make varies constantly from hand to hand depending on the board, action, and the players involved.

I thought about this when the player who ended up losing started complaining about how "lucky" I was and how I should be playing based on the odds and not just trying to hit crazy draws. I let him rant but couldn't help thinking that the whole time, I thought I was playing the odds.

[iceveins0901]

Good post Frob

[RiverstarsVictim]

Nice post, especially the reminder about calculating implied odds with flush draws and how scary the board actually looks when we hit our flush, all too often overlooked.

[frob23]

There is a another lesson here -- one we can learn about bet sizing. If MP3 (the original raiser) had made a proper sized bet on the flop, we wouldn't have been able to get away with this. Even a half-pot sized bet would be too much. By under-betting the pot, MP3 opened up the possibility that someone with a gut-shot would have implied odds to draw.

If he fires $0.75 (a 3/4ths pot sized bet), we need to think we can get around $8.00. You'll have to excuse me because it is early and I am just using estimation amounts like I would at the table and not a calculator to be exact. MP3 would have $3.34 left and the pot would be $2.50 -- assuming BB calls still. And the BB would have $2.65. That means we need to expect both of them to get all-in if we are going to eek out a small profit. That is completely unreasonable and we can't even dream of calling. So a bet of around the standard amount here stinks for us and we go away.

Say he fires $0.50 into the $1.02 and is called by the BB. A half-pot sized bet is about the smalllest "reasonable" bet a player can make in NL. The pot becomes $2.02 but thanks to the larger bet size, we need to get nearly $5.50. This means we have to get more than half their stacks from both opponents (unlikely) or the entire stack from MP3 ($3.59 remaining). It is possible but highly unlikely for that to happen so our implied odds are less than that. So even a bet at the bottom range of the reasonable amounts just stinks for us and we have to go away. We can't be overly optimistic regarding our implied odds here and think we can get all of one player's stack or most of multiple players' stacks. That just doesn't make sense.

I understand making a continuation bet on a fairly dry board like this. I don't like it when so many people saw the flop -- someone is likely to have some part of it. But if you're going to make a continuation bet (or any bet really), you need to make a proper sized bet. A proper sized bet will get someone off middle pair (which is a possibility at these stakes) where an under-bet, like he made, is very unlikely to move anyone off it. The absolute smallest continuation bet here should be 50% of the pot. But with so many people in, 75% is probably better because it will clear out those middle pairs.

[GainerRakeback]

When implied odds should tell you it's not worth the risk:

When I play online at a mico cash games (.01/.02 or .02/.05) and a player w/ say .40 (min buy-in) sits and bets .22 pre-flop, I may not call even with a non-paired premium hand only because the odds are I'll miss and the OR will push on the flop. Why risk such a big pre-flop bet if the OR only has .18 more to win? If he had TT for example, then your AK, AQ, AJ,, AT after the flop is likely no good. Of course if I'm lucky enough to get a big hand, like AA, KK or QQ I would just re-raise him all-in to isolate and risk it. You might even call a normal raise from a player with money w/ 5 6 . But if the OR has only a minium amount left, just fold it.

When the OR has a very small chip stack and makes a big pre-flop bet, usually I find it's best just to pass. If the OR has chips behind, then it's worth playing.

You're at the table to win money from players that have money. You can't win money from someone that doesn't have anything on the table. In fact, these players intentionally sit w/ the min buy-in so they can raise big or push to steal the blinds and limpers money. If someone wakes up with a big hand and calls, they they're not risking much. It's a stupid way for them to play, so dont risk it.

[daneljeff]

Pot odds are the odds equal the ratio of the pot size to the size of the bet you must call. Implied odds represent how much money you might be able to make if you successfully hit a drawing hand. To determine the pot odds, simply take the amount of money that is already in the pot and divide that by how much you need to put in to call. Understand the pot odds helps you to determine whether or not you should call when you are on a draw. If you are pretty sure that your opponent will bet another amount of money into the pot in the future, you should use the implied odds before deciding whether to call a bet or not.