Stupid Call?

[frecklers]

Full Tilt Poker Game #12927609895: PTOTW 58 (95626232), Table 1 - 100/200 - No Limit Hold'em - 14:34:05 ET - 2009/06/20
Seat 1: gamer4life27 (1,770)
Seat 3: frecklers (8,730)
gamer4life27 posts the small blind of 100
frecklers posts the big blind of 200
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to gamer4life27 [Q A]
gamer4life27 raises to 1,770, and is all in
frecklers calls 1,570
gamer4life27 shows [Q A]
frecklers shows [K 9]
*** FLOP *** [4 Q 2]
*** TURN *** [4 Q 2] [K]
*** RIVER *** [4 Q 2 K] [5]
gamer4life27 shows a pair of Queens
frecklers shows a pair of Kings
frecklers wins the pot (3,540) with a pair of Kings
gamer4life27: ugghh.. gg
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3,540 | Rake 0
Board: [4d Qh 2c Kh 5h]
Seat 1: gamer4life27 (small blind) showed [Q A] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 3: frecklers (big blind) showed [K 9] and won (3,540) with a pair of Kings

I have taken the above hand example from the recent PTOTW tournament to try and highlight why certain decisions may have more to them than we think. For many players the call with K9 off would be obvious, but to some beginners who have gained an understanding they may think it is a ridiculous call. In fact some better players may also think it is a bad call, but I wanted to highlight the thought process behind it.


Firstly the prize money is $50 first and $ 30 for second so we are both guaranteed $ 30 at least.

Secondly I have an 83% share of total chips giving me an expectation (assuming we are similar standard players) to win the other $20 83% of the time or $16.60.

We therefore say that in equity terms my expectation should be $46.60 on average at this point.


In this hand If I fold I lose 200 chips and my equity will reduce to 81% or $46.20.


If I call the calculation is slightly more complicated however here is my normal assumption in this position.

I am figuring that on average my opponents with less than 9BB will shove Any A, K8+, Q10+ J10+ and any pair. Maybe some will be more conservative and others less so.

This means on average I should have a 40% chance to win this hand (So why in gods name would I call??!!)


If I call I win the hand 40% of the time i.e. 40% of $50 = $20
If I call and lose the hand my equity shifts

I have 6960 chips or 66% meaning I win 66% of the time

so 60% of the time I end up with a 66% share of the additional $20 or $7.92

plus $ 30 Guaranteed = 60% * $ 30 = $18.00

My equity for calling is therefore $ 45.92 My equity for folding $ 46.20

On this occasion although marginal, I got it wrong. But as you can see, the call is not as stupid as it might look and more importantly, there was some thought behind the call. In this case slightly higher blinds would make the call correct.

Obviously you cannot do the calculations at the table, but you should have a general understanding by doing the calculations each time you get involved in this sort of hand.

I hope this is a useful example (also my way of justifying the call lol) and if I haven't explained myself too well please ask.

[phaul]

I don't really understand why you included all that data. The stakes are irrelevant, as is your stack size. Hu is linear (plays like cash), so if you have him covered your stack is irrelevant. All you need to decide is are you better than 1570/(2*1770) = 44.35% against his range. If he is as tight as your estimated range then it's a really easy fold, but you should be able to own him by shoving a near-optimal range when you're otb.

[frecklers]

I don't really understand why you included all that data. The stakes are irrelevant, as is your stack size. Hu is linear (plays like cash), so if you have him covered your stack is irrelevant. All you need to decide is are you better than 1570/(2*1770) = 44.35% against his range. If he is as tight as your estimated range then it's a really easy fold, but you should be able to own him by shoving a near-optimal range when you're otb.

Thought I had replied to this... Obviously not


The relative values of 1st and 2nd prize have an impact. I have considerably more margin for error with the payout structure in this tourny compared to others and it is possible that the margin could be greater still or in some cases even less.

In fact, I can have around 2% leway based upon this payout structure compared to other payout structures.

Agreed the point at which I break even is the same, however my margin for error is noticably different.

In this case gamer had shoved 3 out of the last 4 hands he was on the button. I was happier to go with an assumption that he was pushing light given this structure compared to say a structure where 1st place paid more than double that of 2nd place. It is also more likely that my opponent would shove lighter given this structure and he would be correct to do so.

[phaul]

Lol I skimmed over your post.

Thought I had replied to this... Obviously not


The relative values of 1st and 2nd prize have an impact. I have considerably more margin for error with the payout structure in this tourny compared to others and it is possible that the margin could be greater still or in some cases even less.

In fact, I can have around 2% leway based upon this payout structure compared to other payout structures.

Agreed the point at which I break even is the same, however my margin for error is noticably different.

How do the relative values have an impact? And what do you mean by margin of error? We're not just trying to be +EV, we're trying to maximise EV. If he shoves ATC with 30BBs, a calling range of any pair, any ace is clearly +EV but is clearly not optimal.

In this case gamer had shoved 3 out of the last 4 hands he was on the button. I was happier to go with an assumption that he was pushing light given this structure compared to say a structure where 1st place paid more than double that of 2nd place. It is also more likely that my opponent would shove lighter given this structure and he would be correct to do so.

It's probably a call here then. Structure has no bearing on optimal strategy HU.

[frecklers]

If for example I mis-judge his range, I achieve the same negative effect on my ROI if I am say 0nly 41% to his range v's 43% with a bigger differential between the 2 payouts.

With that in mind I am more inclined to call when the differential is smaller and he is more inclined to shove.

I might want more info than the last 4 hands if the differential was larger

[phaul]

If for example I mis-judge his range, I achieve the same negative effect on my ROI if I am say 0nly 41% to his range v's 43% with a bigger differential between the 2 payouts.

Yeah but there's nothing you can do about this.

With that in mind I am more inclined to call when the differential is smaller and he is more inclined to shove.

I might want more info than the last 4 hands if the differential was larger

You're effectively talking about sacrificing EV for reduced variance if you don't have the bankroll to support it. This shouldn't really ever be a concern unless you're HU in a really big MTT, in which case I guess it's up to you where you draw the line, kinda like Deal or No Deal.

[frecklers]

Phaul,

you are quite right TBH. I suppose either way I am giving up EV unless my call or fold is absolutely optimal. Plus the EV differential is equal on either side of the break even point.

With that in mind in this case optimal for an average range probably sits at say KJs (calculated after the event).

Therefore I could just have easily made a case for folding KQ and suggested that although that option is also sub-optimal it is not that much.

I suppose the point here is then ....(although not my original point as I accept that the post was far too over-complicated) that it is more important to play an optimal strategy if the payout is more heavily weighted to first place.


As you quite rightly pointed out in your first post my ONLY onsideration in this case is whether or not I have the correct pot odds (in terms of chips only) to call.

Which in essence is what I did.... However when I put the range I had considered in my head in to Pokerstove (after the game) I found that my K9 was only 40% to the range.


So the point of my original post being I did not make the call because I wanted to gamble or play bingo. I made the call because I thought it was good (although marginal). I also knew that if it wasn't good it would not be costing me significant EV.

[DeadBabySoup]

yes, it's a bad call. if his hand holds up, you double him up and you're about even in chips. also, with K9, there's a good chance you're dominated by an all in. AK, KQ, KJ, TT, JJ, QQ, AA. if he had less chips or the blinds were significantly higher, it wouldn't be such a bad call. but as it is, you should have waited for a better spot.

[phaul]

It's a good call. Villain had shoved 3/4 of the last hands otb and it's unexploitable anyway if you're unsure. Folding is really bad unless villain is a massive nit with a range similar to that given in the OP.

Also, since when was 3500 the same as 7000, and why does that matter anyway?

[phaul]

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sngs/hune.html

[yajschko]

it's a good call if you're ahead

[Esqueleto]

yes, it's a bad call. if his hand holds up, you double him up and you're about even in chips. also, with K9, there's a good chance you're dominated by an all in. AK, KQ, KJ, TT, JJ, QQ, AA. if he had less chips or the blinds were significantly higher, it wouldn't be such a bad call. but as it is, you should have waited for a better spot.

Ding, Ding, Ding, we have a winner.

[getrbd.tk]

Some players call with any 2 cards.

[phaul]

Some players call with any 2 cards.