whats the right move here?

[matt_jeffs]

in the local casino im on the button with AQs the blinds are 500 and 1k (last hand at this level before 1 an 2k) i have 17k total and am third in chips. 5 people have 8 k or less (2 have 3k lol) and 1 has about 12. The tourney pays dwn to 4th.

1 of the big stacks with about 25k raises to 5k. he's pretty loose and has tended to raise more with weaker hands. this was his maximum pre-flop raise.

given the increasing blinds and the numerous short stacks its quite possible that i could fold this hand and wait for a better spot (could even limp into the money) but given the fact im sure he's on a medium pocket pair i've got a flip to put myself in a great situation. Its possible he also has AK AQ KQ AJ.

I didnt think he'd raise so much with a strong hand as he was kind of 1 dimensional I.E strong bets = weak hands, weak bets = strong hands.

it should be noted that fold equity doesnt mean much to this guy. im positive if i push he'll call.

what would you do in this spot? if anyone responds i'll tell you what happened.

[travz21]

I'm not sure how you wouldn't push after the background info you gave on the guy. If he has a "weak" hand and you know you're getting called, this is an auto-push. When I see 1 dimensional players raise big pf, they almost always have a small to medium pocket pair. But, if you think he has a weak hand, folding here would be hard.

I would pick this spot rather than waiting and getting picked off by pushers once the blinds increase, but I also don't know what kind of players you are playing against. It also depends what the payout structure is and if that's even important to you.

Hell, you could very easily make it to top 4 and then start pushing any two cards and probably win the whole thing if your table is tight. By the sounds of it though, you pushed here and were dominated.

[matt_jeffs]

Thanks for the reply. I thought i did the right thing.

The other players at the table were weak and passive. just sat around waiting for cards. i was amazed so many of them made the final table. as for the payout structure yeah i couldve used the money but the winning was more important to me.

yeah i pushed, and he called and showed 66, awful call i thought but hey he was racing at least.

flop: 2 3 4 rainbow
turn: A
River: 5

[phaul]

I think you can fold. Even against a range of 22-88, AQ, AJ, KQ you're only 57% so with ICM that would be roughly breakeven. I think a case can be made here for maybe folding in a marginally + spot for future blind-stealing equity. People are far too tight in these as you noted, I think it's worth reducing variance for future EV here (ie while it might be + to call if you isolate this hand, in the context of the whole tournament, incorporating future blind-stealing, it may be better to fold).

Especially if his range is more weighted towards small pps, you really don't want to be flipping with a bigger stack in such a commanding position.

[scarface53]

You have nothing invested in this hand. With a player like that I would I fold because there are better opportunites later on in the tournament. The only way I push here is if I had AK, JJ, QQ, KK, or AA. You have lots of chips and basically your hoping he has AJ, or A10. I really think the best move here is to fold.

[DeadBabySoup]

If you were already in the money, I probably would have shoved. If you were on the bubble, I would have folded. With the information you provided, you were almost certainly in a coin flip situation. I wouldn't risk getting knocked out and walking away with nothing. But once you're in the money, you have to take more risks to build a big stack and play for first.

[Pwnosaurus]

Given the stacksizes and the read on villain, I think push is the only correct play here. WP, nasty river.

[matt_jeffs]

I think you can fold. Even against a range of 22-88, AQ, AJ, KQ you're only 57% so with ICM that would be roughly breakeven. I think a case can be made here for maybe folding in a marginally + spot for future blind-stealing equity. People are far too tight in these as you noted, I think it's worth reducing variance for future EV here (ie while it might be + to call if you isolate this hand, in the context of the whole tournament, incorporating future blind-stealing, it may be better to fold).

Especially if his range is more weighted towards small pps, you really don't want to be flipping with a bigger stack in such a commanding position.

cheers man!!!

i thought at the time it was a correct move by me and a donkey call by him but looking back everything you say is true. afterall i knew he'd call and i had his range down pretty well so i think maybe i shouldve folded afterall. i'll learn from this and when this situation arises again i'll factor in this advise.

Thanks a lot (also thanks to the rest of the guys who gave feedback).

[phaul]

No problem!