25NL 6-max Spot...

[Silent_Ac3s]

Alright I gotta hear how you guys play this flop in my position.

Stage #1510414421: Holdem No Limit $0.25 - 2009-07-02 01:13:30 (ET)
Table: ALMA AVE (Real Money) Seat #6 is the dealer
Seat 6 - SILENT_AC3S ($27.63 in chips)
Seat 1 - PUSSYBUOY ($19.83 in chips)
Seat 2 - BIKEPAINTER ($19.92 in chips)
Seat 3 - 63CLUBS6699 ($6.62 in chips)
Seat 4 - PSYCHOHAWK ($49.65 in chips)
Seat 5 - MINIGUN007 ($48.39 in chips)
PUSSYBUOY - Posts small blind $0.10
BIKEPAINTER - Posts big blind $0.25
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to SILENT_AC3S [Ac Qd]
63CLUBS6699 - Calls $0.25
PSYCHOHAWK - Folds
MINIGUN007 - Calls $0.25
SILENT_AC3S - Raises $1.25 to $1.25
PUSSYBUOY - Calls $1.15
BIKEPAINTER - Folds
63CLUBS6699 - Calls $1
MINIGUN007 - Calls $1
*** FLOP *** [3c Qh Qc]
PUSSYBUOY - Checks
63CLUBS6699 - All-In $5.37
MINIGUN007 - Calls $5.37
SILENT_AC3S - Raises $12.74 to $12.74
PUSSYBUOY - Folds
MINIGUN007 - All-In(Raise) $41.77 to $47.14

Most of you are just going to say ship it, I know, and I agree.. Its just that MINIGUN was a tight aggressive post flop player, and his range there was only KQ, AQ, 33, or possibly a flush draw.
With my remaining stack size I just about had to call, but if I was deeper would any of you consider laying this down to his shove?

[RAW_FORCE]

No, I am not folding the nuts. When he flats the first flop bet and then 3bets you allin I agree he looks mega strong but I think even a very fit TAG player can jam QJ+ here. If he has 33 it's a cooler and nobody in their right mind would be upset they didn't lay it down. My thinking is the same up to probably 250bb deep.

[Squirkle]

No, I am not folding the nuts. When he flats the first flop bet and then 3bets you allin I agree he looks mega strong but I think even a very fit TAG player can jam QJ+ here. If he has 33 it's a cooler and nobody in their right mind would be upset they didn't lay it down. My thinking is the same up to probably 250bb deep.

couldnt be anymore true!!!! spot on shove all day

[GreaseStain]

The problem with this spot is that you can't fold, but you're never good, he always has 33. Yea, it's weird, why can't he have QJ? I dunno, I just think like maybe twice in my life i've had better trips than someone. The vast vast majority of the time I have tirps and get it in on the flop my opponent has a boat every time.

[phrikshin]

if you fold here it is a statistical nightmare, u must shove. You say KQ QJ 33 are the only possibilities, but ive seen very tight players try and get cute with aces in this spot and just get fed up and shove, he could easily have KK AA as well. This is a MUST-SHOVE spot.

[C8H10N4O2]

It would take one helluva read for me to lay down AQ here. Even if you are up against 33, you're sitting at a 22%-23% to still win the hand. I'd say with the range you gave him, even deeper you have to call. From a TAG standpoint, KQ/QJ at a 6-max game is feeling pretty good, so I feel like those two hands are very real possibilities. A flush draw shoving here seems less likely, especially since you have the Ace of clubs here, so I'd probably eliminate that from the range, so you are probably up against 33, AQ, KQ, QJ, and a slim chance for even Q10s to be in there. You can beat Qx where x isn't a 3. If it's an Ace, you have the free roll backdoor flush draw going for you. I just don't know how you can lay it down in a 6-max game against a TAG player.

But looking back on the hand again, the limp from him would probably feel like a small pp. I've seen many TAG's play small pp's this way, so I'd say we could weight his range to the 33 a little stronger. It's still a tough situation if you were deeper, but after you bet $12.74 on top of the all-in with your current stack size, I think you have to go with this hand. If you were sitting with $50, and you would still have $35ish, I can see laying it down, but like I said earlier, that's one helluva read, because you are virtually laying this hand down to 33 and nothing else. If he were truly TAG he wouldn't have Q3, so you are still sitting with a decent chance of 33, AQ, KQ, or QJ.

[HeyKidMove]

gotta put it in.

[Silent_Ac3s]

Thanks for the reminders that I have to get it in there. Now that I look at it, ya it's a spot you just have to take. I was just starting to question my play after running bad for a while.. Losing AA six straight times along with this has brought my confidence down quite a bit :/

Random question, but how many hands is usually enough to show if one is profitable for the long term at a certain level?

[C8H10N4O2]

I've been told it's a minimum of 50,000 with 100,000 preferred.