Ptotw #61

[C8H10N4O2]

Nah, it's fine... it's just frustrating to consistently get 3rd. I mean, the money for third is nice, but money aside, third is frustrating

Bouncing does not sound fun. Definitely not for me.

Happy 4th.

[C8H10N4O2]

Last Hand (Went to play a HU match and just happened to notice they were still playing in time to see the last hand.)

NL Holdem $200(BB) Full Tilt Game#13198206350

DeadBabySoup ($3,612)
frob2600 ($8,388)

frob2600 posts (SB) $100
DeadBabySoup posts (BB) $200

frob2600 calls $100
DeadBabySoup raises to $3,612 (All-In)
frob2600 calls $3,412
FLOP ($7,224) 4h 8d Qh
TURN ($7,224) 4h 8d Qh 4s
RIVER ($7,224) 4h 8d Qh 4s 6c
DeadBabySoup shows 7c As
(Pre 55%, Flop 13.4%, Turn 6.8%)

frob2600 shows Jd Qc
(Pre 45%, Flop 86.6%, Turn 93.2%)

frob2600 wins $7,224

[frob23]

With the way I was running today, it only figures that I would enter the last hand behind. And would flop what I needed to win.

I ran hotter than a tin-roofed outhouse in July.

I was even playing a bunch of garbage -- which I am sure you noticed -- and still managed to do ok.

[frob23]

Also... there is a really interesting spot from the game which I might want to create a post about. I am not sure I am going to make the post though. I might. I found it very interesting from a theory point of view.

It has to do with Dew shoving on the bubble and DeadBaby having A-Js. I think there might be a good argument for calling there even if you expect to be crushed most of the time by the range Dew is shoving.

[C8H10N4O2]

Also... there is a really interesting spot from the game which I might want to create a post about. I am not sure I am going to make the post though. I might. I found it very interesting from a theory point of view.

It has to do with Dew shoving on the bubble and DeadBaby having A-Js. I think there might be a good argument for calling there even if you expect to be crushed most of the time by the range Dew is shoving.

Details, I had 1732 in chips in the LB, Lady has 325 and is sitting out, DeadBabySoup has 3868 on the button. Blinds are 30/60. Top 3 pay out 4 are left in. Money pay outs $20, $30, $50. DBS raises from the button to 180, I shove for 1732 total. Frob folds, DBS thinks about it for a long time but folds. I had been playing a relatively tight game, but I'm curious here. I'll start a thread for it so we can see what people think here.

[frob23]

Right. You're pretty much moving with AA or KK in that spot. And nothing else.

DeadBaby had you pretty well covered and a call and a loss would leave him with about 2k chips. He'd have 2,136 actually. And you would have 3,464. I would still have 6,075.

If he folds: He is sure to make $20 and he has equity for about another $12.30. So he is making about $32.30 when he folds.

If he calls and loses: He is still sure to make at least $20. And he would have equity for about another $7.12. So he's making $27.12 when he calls and loses.

There is only a $5 difference between those two. But when he calls and wins, he is sure to make $30 and has about half the chips in play... equity for another $9.33. So he has $39.33 equity when he calls and wins. He adds another $7 equity if he wins beyond what he gets for folding.

If he's 12.9% to win when he calls:

He has: $5.07 win equity
He has: $23.62 lose equity
-----
Total calling equity: $28.69

So, if he puts you on AA and ONLY AA... he loses money by calling. But if you do this with AA and KK, he wins 25.8% of the time.

He has: $10.15 win equity
He has: $20.12 lose equity
-----
Total calling equity: $30.27


Ok... so he's still losing. I don't know how wide you need to be shoving for it to be a win. But it's still pretty close. In the heat of the moment, I thought it might be closer than that and it might be a +EV call. Running the numbers now, I am not so sure. Even if you're shoving JJ+, AQs+, and AKo... he's still not quite getting a positive expectation. And shoving lighter than that on the bubble with the stacks as deep as they were would be suicidal.

Especially when we have half a dozen hands until the money comes automatically.

[C8H10N4O2]

In here will work too I guess... I started a thread so it'd be more visible for responses. It's close. Lol... from my point of view, I'm still not sure it was the right play for me. It feels pretty borderline. In the heat of the moment, I thought it'd be an insta-fold from him, but afterward I'm wondering. :-/



Anyway, I will add that I really enjoyed this tournament. I love non-turbo single table sng's. I feel turbo sng's have a little too much luck factor in them, so this was fantastic. I love FTP's blind structure too.

[DeadBabySoup]

i put him on AA, KK, or AK. i thought about calling mostly to bubble him with lil lady about to be blinded out i was making the money either way.

[C8H10N4O2]

I thought you would honestly. At the moment, I was like "is it not obvious what I have, why would you call with AJ" but afterward I was like "why did he not call? He had 0 risk."

[DeadBabySoup]

i was only thinking of calling for the humor aspect. if you had less chips or if i had a few more, i would have. but i didn't want to be the short stack 3 handed.